12:46.81

Whoever says Rupp couldn't hang on in this race -- have you seen Rupp falter in any race recently?

that primal wrote:

Whoever says Rupp couldn't hang on in this race -- have you seen Rupp falter in any race recently?

I hope your right. Not saying Rupp can't get there one day. Just think right now with his level of training...he is at a disadvantage with those monsters.

Some observations:

The Kenyans tried to take it from the front and they all failed, this will likely effect their tactics in the Olympics.

The two best Ethiopians didn't move to the front until 400 to go, then did it on the outside lane through the curve, the third one tried too but either didn't have the speed at that point or couldn't find enough room, if the latter he might have lost the energy needed to kick for third right there.

Gebremeskel again had to go to line two in the last curve to overtake Gebrhiwot, so not only was he the fastest but he did an approx 405 meter last lap.

Gebrhiwot didn't seem like a happy camper over the line despite second place and JWR, no arms in the air, no right on high fives with Gebremeskel, I think he wanted it more - much more.

No-one's gonna want to take it from the front in the Olympics, except maybe Gebrhiwot, and he will not be smiling like Gebreselassie when he makes his move...

Forker wrote:

that primal wrote:

Whoever says Rupp couldn't hang on in this race -- have you seen Rupp falter in any race recently?

I hope your right. Not saying Rupp can't get there one day. Just think right now with his level of training...he is at a disadvantage with those monsters.

What? Why? Are u kidding me?

Interesting observations. Really interesting thoughts. I got to watch the race again. Thanks for the post!

Its a bit annoying to go through 5 pages of stupid posts and only a handful where people have made decent contributions. Mine of course adds to the no contribution tally.oops. but my point stands.awesome race though.

Just rewatched the race highlights. Gebremeskel looked very good, did not seem to be putting in much effort until the last lap, then had a great last 200 m sprint. I think he is going to be hard to beat in the olympics. I suspect that he can break 12:40 in a perfect race.

Sub 12:50 is the new sub 13. There are enough guys now under the 12:50 barrier or capable going under 12:50 that just running 12:55-12:59 is not going to get you desired placings. Look at where Bekele finished with a stellar 12:55 time.

Besides Rupp I really don't see any US runner capable of 12:50. Including Lagat. Lagat's potential is tapped out at 12:52 at best. US distance running, at least for the 5k, is in trouble. We need more fast 1500m guys (like David Torrence) to move up.

You guys are funny! Remember Gebremeskel beat Mo running with one shoe indoor and he looked so smooth, this guy has been improving year after year. They train hard and they had something to prove to their federation: they are better than Bekele now.

They don't skip races, Rupp and Mo are selecting their races while these guys race whenever they get the opportunity. A mix of good runners, good weather, mental toughness and perfect pacing gives you the results. Somebody who can run 7:28-7:29 for 3k surely can run 12:45 for 5k!! While you are at it, the WR is tough but is beatable!

ita over wrote:

Sub 12:50 is the new sub 13. There are enough guys now under the 12:50 barrier or capable going under 12:50 that just running 12:55-12:59 is not going to get you desired placings. Look at where Bekele finished with a stellar 12:55 time.

Besides Rupp I really don't see any US runner capable of 12:50. Including Lagat. Lagat's potential is tapped out at 12:52 at best. US distance running, at least for the 5k, is in trouble. We need more fast 1500m guys (like David Torrence) to move up.

US distance running (5k) isn't in trouble, it's doing fine. Lot's of guys are closing in on 13.00 with some having gone under (Lagat, Ritz, Rupp, Teg, Solinsky) recently. Kennedy was thought to be a star running that 15+ years ago, now it is almost commonplace. The problem is that too many think that others shouldn't be able to run faster - or must be on drugs. Why shouldn't they run faster? - even guys like Levins (who was he 2 years ago?) or Mo Ahmed are running faster (over 10k) than Rupp did at that age. There are talented foreigners out there who are simply prepared to out-work many Americans, both in training and racing.

This race was an Ethiopian trial with some good Kenyans along for the ride. Shame that no Americans were in it, but understandable asit was too close to the US trials meet. Heck Jack Buckner ran 13.10 25 years ago, and he wasn't that great, and Moorcroft ran 13.00 even earlier (they are Brits and we know they can't run - except Farah).Just as the vast number of top Brit over 1500m (Ovett, Coe, Cram, Moorcroft, Elliott) in the 1980's meant some had to move to 5000m (Moorcroft and Buckner), so the depth also made for a number of 3.35 journeyman (Gladwin, Crabb, etc.) which is a result of it - but that's long gone for Britain now. So too with the Africans (look at the Marathon - where 2h04 doesn't make the Olympic team!!).The point is that depth creates the atmosphere for top performances, and that is what happened in this race. The US has the talent in College for that depth, but can't harness the resources to make it happen. Look at Oregon where Jerry and Alberto have their own groups which have almost nothing to do with each other - this is too much the norm in the US where little "kingdoms" predominate instead of a common focus towards getting the whol country together. That should be the mandate of the USATF, but that organization has even less power than the NCAA, which isn't about development of athletes but about team titles and conference championships.

Now that there are a number of well-coached groups (Oregon Project, etc.) in the US, the depth will increase, but too much in secrecy and isolation. The shame is that there are still not enough good groups for the size of the running population in the US as too much of it is about getting a contract to financially survive, and talented runners simply don't get in the appropriate work in College to make the transition so quit instead upon graduation.

ita over wrote:

Sub 12:50 is the new sub 13. There are enough guys now under the 12:50 barrier or capable going under 12:50 that just running 12:55-12:59 is not going to get you desired placings. Look at where Bekele finished with a stellar 12:55 time.

Besides Rupp I really don't see any US runner capable of 12:50. Including Lagat. Lagat's potential is tapped out at 12:52 at best. US distance running, at least for the 5k, is in trouble. We need more fast 1500m guys (like David Torrence) to move up.

Funny how the best guys at any given distance are always at a different distance. You'd think these guys would catch on that all they have to do is move up (or down) and then suddenly they'd go from US also-rans to world beaters.

Jackie DD wrote:

Olympic 5k results:

1. Farah

2. Lagat

3. Rupp

Olympic 10k results:

1. Farah

2. Rupp

3. Bekele

Heard it here first. This Paris result doesn't even make any sense, something weird was going on, whatever it was (drug cycle, perfect conditions, both). Rupp beat most of these guys at Pre, he'll do it again when it counts. He just has to follow his boy/mentor, who is the man and whom these guys -- any and all of these clowns from this Paris race -- never beat.

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I doubt your predictions will pan out but at least you have an opinion. I think it'll be more like....

Olympic 10K

1. Bekele

2. Farah

3. Rupp

Olympic 5K

1. Gebremsekel

2. Gebrhiwet

3. Farah

4. Koech

5. Lagat

6. Alamirew

7. Rupp

I think Rupp can and will medal in the 10k, but it'll be close. I still don't think--despite the 3:34 and his trials 5K that he has the wheels to medal in the 5K. I think the tactics in the 5K at the olympics will be very interesting. Should be a great race and I would be happy to see Rupp prove me wrong in the 5 with a higher finish...I just don't think that'll happen.

wertyuiodfghjkl wrote:

I think Rupp can and will medal in the 10k, but it'll be close. I still don't think--despite the 3:34 and his trials 5K that he has the wheels to medal in the 5K. I think the tactics in the 5K at the olympics will be very interesting. Should be a great race and I would be happy to see Rupp prove me wrong in the 5 with a higher finish...I just don't think that'll happen.

There are certainly a small handful of guys who could run away from rupp at the end of the 5000, and their odds are better for that if they are not doing the 10k first like rupp (that is debatable though because a medal for rupp in the 10k means the pressure is off for him in the 5k).

With that said the odds of all of them running away from rupp is highly unlikely. At least half of the 6-7 guys that could potentially beat rupp in the 5000 will start to crumble in the last few laps, and it'll be a matter of if rupp is having a typical on day and has the burning desire to kill it on the last lap.

Watch the pre 5k and see rupp run away from these guys while looking pretty flat. Flat as in he, Mo and Ritz were probably coming off monster training weeks in Utah and using PRE as a pay day and a workout. He looked on another level than the 5th and 6th place finishers there. Watch his last 2 laps at the trials, where he looked like he was giving 95% in a workout, save the last 100 meters where he goes to 99%.

I think rupp will have us US distance fans holding our breath a bit in London. There are a couple haters on here trying to deal with issues, but I think overall people have come to see that rupp and Salazar were really just making the cake the last 4 years and now they are putting on the icing. And knowing Salazar I won't be surprised in the least if dathan is chasing medals in the 10k.

the olympic final will NOT be a race like paris was. I believe rupp and lagat will be fine. If it was a time trial race lagat would be in trouble. But if it is a kickers race which most likely it will be. U will see 1305 to 1315 win the race with a 52 last quarter and a 152 last 800m

who cares if it is fast or not. rupp has cruising at high speeds down to a science. i definitely believe rupp could have went sub 12:50 yesterday running with that group under those ideal conditions opposed to the windy day at pre.

You are absolutely right Mr. Andersson! The last time I saw these guys race was at Carlsbad, Gebremeskel ran an astonishing 13:11 for 5k, guess who was second? Gebrhiwot in 13:14, these two smoked Eliud who tried to break them towards the end of the race.

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248632-2012-Carlsbad-5000/video/626579-Mens-Elite-Race-Gebremeskel-1311-2012-Carlsbad-5000

Gebremeskel is not a front runner, he always run the same, set the pace you want,he will look down at his feet and try to follow you, if he happens to be with u at end,then watch out coz he sure has a disturbing kick! My take is whenever somebody can run 13:11 on roads, on an up and down course,sharp turns, beating with ease Tariku, Eliud,Gebrhiwot,or beating Mo Farah with one shoe on an indoor track, he has all my respect and he is proven to be not a star like others but a fighter!

Trying to find the ROJO quote after Lomong ran 13:11, saying if you did not think Lomong was a medal contender, then we do understand the sport.

HEY ROJO.............IS LOMONG STILL A MEDAL CONTENDER, OR DO I NO UNDERSTAND THE SPORT????????????????

OG Results

5000

Lagat 3

Rupp 7

10000

Rupp 6

Take it to the bank. Tell 'em your Cousin Brucey sent you.

Linsanity wrote:

Trying to find the ROJO quote after Lomong ran 13:11, saying if you did not think Lomong was a medal contender, then we do understand the sport.

HEY ROJO.............IS LOMONG STILL A MEDAL CONTENDER, OR DO I NO UNDERSTAND THE SPORT????????????????

Absolutely he is, and anything above 13:10 pace for the final increasingly so. A medal contender is not a medal lock or favorite. Simply that if the pace is right and they are on that day, they can get it. Teg narrowly missed bronze in the 5k, centro got it in the 1500 last year.

There is almost never a 3 person race for gold over the last 250, it's often a matter who dies the least and hangs on for bronze, or who comes out of the chase pack and picks that person who was going for gold (but is now fading) off. You don't see people executing the last 1200 specifically for bronze. Its precisely because of this that a guy like lomong can wait in 6th to 8th if the pace isnt insane and burn folks down over the last 600 and edge up to bronze, thus making him a contender for a medal.