Nice summary, C/M--thanks.
"Do Princeton women beat Dartmouth (for 4th) at HEPS?"
Feels crazy, doesn't it, to be projecting Princton's women--who went 1-2-3-4-5 at Heps, not too long ago--to be off the podium? And maybe in the bottom half of the League? I've known P. Farrell, in some previous falls, to start his team off a bit slowly and come on like gangbusters later. For the Princeton women, October is historically "their month"; they're at Wisco next week, and I (strongly) suspect will take a nice step up.
That said: It's just nuts that an outstanding team (or two) will have to finish in the bottom half at Heps. What a great women's xc conference that is! BTW I don't see the Cornell women as anything like a lock to win at Heps, though they certainly deserve to be the favorites now (NB: four weeks out). Last year, they prevailed only because their #5 went apeshirt over the last mile--even though the meet was "ithacated" and they were probably the best-prepared (equipment, etc.) team in the field.
This year, Cornell once again has a solid front four, and it's distinctly better than last year's; but the rest of the League is better, too! So if you're Cornell, what's your strategy? Do you have 4-6 women commit to stay with your #3-4 runners as long as possible, and trust that at least one of them will keep up the whole way? Or, given that WWindsor has *relatively* more running room (cf. VCP, say), do you have each runner go out at the pace that's right for her, and then hope that one or two move up toward the front four? That approach worked pretty well last year...
Okay, if I *have* to make a prediction (I never have before)--very much subject to change:
1. Cornell
2. Princeton
3. Columbia (very close)
4. Dartmouth
5. Yale
6. Brown
7. Harvard
8. Penn
Yes, I feel stupid putting a *great* team like Yale fifth, and I will be completely unsurprised if they finish on the podium and make me feel stupider. (I don't feel any less stupid picking Harvard for seventh, btw--their potential is massive--or Columbia, who could win the whole thing, third.) But this is what I'm going with now.
Speaking of crazy, how 'bout the Kolas Calculator (http://www.flotrack.org/page/2012-Kolas-Calculator) picking five Ivy men's teams (versus three for the women?!?) to make Nationals? Forget "likely," is that even mathematically *possible*?--I know you all follow the arcane qualifying rules better than I do.