Colorado's my pick for NCAA's. Three words:

Last Year: All-NBA Vince Carter goes out for season with injury, and the Raptors playoff hopes vanish. WRONG. They rip off a huge winning streak, make the playoffs and do a lot better WITHOUT Carter than with him.

Could also probably throw the St. Louis Rams in this year when playing without Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk.

Has in not be confirmed that Ritz is running? I thought that was reported on the letsrun front page??

He may be running but it will be in a significantly reduced role compared to where he would be now if he hadn't been injured. A completely healthy Ritz would be a favorite to win, a lock for top 5 at least. Therefore the Ewing Theory still applies.

i'll say that's the exception and not the rule. how about all of the teams whose hopes vanished with the loss of a star player? i'll bet you anything examples of the latter far outweigh examples of what you speak of. e.g. wizards lose jordan last year, d-backs lose luis gonzales right before the nlds, cardinals lose rolen right before the nlcs, red sox lost pedro and nomar 2 years ago, red sox lost manny this year, the 49ers lost steve young, the broncos lost elway and TD, and the list goes on and on...

Here's an excerpt from the article. Check it out. It's one of life's greatest pehenomenon's.

What's the best example of the Ewing Theory?

The Tennessee Volunteers won the national title the first season after Peyton Manning left Knoxville.

That's easy. During the '99 NBA Playoffs, Ewing tore an Achilles tendon during the second game of the Eastern finals against Indiana. With Ewing finished for the playoffs and nobody else on the Knicks who could handle Rik Smits, the series seemed like a foregone conclusion. As an added bonus, since Ewing himself was involved, that made this the ultimate test of the Ewing Theory; in fact, I e-mailed Dave that week to say, "This is the greatest test yet."

Dave's return e-mail oozed with confidence, as he told me in no uncertain terms, "Ewing's injury is the best thing that ever could have happened to the Knicks -- they're definitely making the Finals now."

So what happened? The Knicks won three of the next four and advanced to the NBA Finals for only the second time in 26 years. Had Jeff Van Gundy's crew shocked the Spurs in the Finals without Ewing, Dave might have his own line of "How-To" videos out right now (a Knicks upset was simply too tall of a task against Duncan and Robinson, Ewing Theory or no Ewing Theory).

What are other examples of the Ewing Theory in action?

Some classics from the past three years, in no particular order:

1. Utah Utes, 1998: Keith Van Horn's ballyhooed college career ends without Utah ever making a Final Four. Nine months later, the Utes shock everyone by making the NCAA title game.

2. Tennessee Volunteers, 1998: Even more ballyhooed than Van Horn during his college career, Peyton Manning leaves UT without either winning a national title or beating Florida -- and the Vols win the national title nine months later.

3. Seattle Mariners, 2000: After allegedly "giving up on the season" by dealing their marquee player (Junior Griffey) eight months after dealing their marquee pitcher (the Big Unit), the Mariners cruise to an AL wild-card berth and shock the White Sox in the first round.

4. Boston Red Sox, 1999: After Mo Vaughn signs with the Angels for $80 million, nobody believes that the Sox have enough hitting to finish above .500. Wrong. They roll off 94 victories, capture the wild-card berth and win their first playoff series in 13 years (beating Cleveland in five games).

5. Miami Dolphins, 2000: Dan Marino retires and everyone prepares for a rebuilding year in Miami; the Fins end up advancing to the second round of the playoffs with Jay Fiedler. Jay Fiedler!

The Flyers proved the Ewing Theory in action last year when they thrived without Eric Lindros -- and then lost when he returned.

6. Philadelphia Flyers, 2000: After losing superstar Eric Lindros to a serious concussion in mid-March, the Flyers hold on for first place in the conference and defeat Buffalo and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. In the conference semis, the Flyers take a 3-1 lead when rumors swirl about a Lindros return. Stunned, the Flyers drop Game 5 at home, as Dave and I send frantic e-mails back and forth. Lindros finally returns in Game 6, and the Flyers squander that one, too; now people are blaming Lindros for killing Philly's momentum. In the climactic Game 7, the Flyers get expunged as Lindros gets knocked out with another concussion midway through the game. Season over.

7. Boston Red Sox & Seattle Mariners, 2001 (ongoing): Written off after Nomar Garciaparra's wrist injury and Alex Rodriguez's departure, both teams cruise to the top of their respective divisions during the first five weeks of the season.

8. University of Kentucky, 1998: One year after the departures of Rick Pitino, Derek Anderson and Ron Mercer, the Wildcats never miss a beat with new coach Tubby Smith and went on to beat Utah to win another NCAA title.

9. St. Louis Rams, 1999: Starting QB Trent Green tears an ACL during the preseason. Given up for dead, the Rams rally behind former Arena League football star Kurt Warner and win the Super Bowl, which might be the most unbelievable thing that ever happened..

10. Detroit Lions, 1999: Stunned by Barry Sanders' retirement in August, everyone gives up on the Lions for the '99 season. The Lions respond by sneaking into the NFC playoffs.

Oklahoma St loses Woolhouse and they don't even come close to making the show...

We'll see. NCAA's will make a good test for the Ewing Theory. What is CU ranked? If they break top 3 they prove the theory correct. Personally, I think they're going to win.

......Nolan Ryan retires from the Texas Rangers and they finally win a world..............Oh, my bad, i must have dreamt that!

Fascinating stuff. :P I'll just bet that your posting that Colorado will win vis-a-vis the Ewing theory will provide Stanford and Arkansas with just enough impetus and motivation to edge out the Buffs. I'm figuring on at least a 20-point swing against the Buffs here. Of course, little do you know that Alan Culpepper and Adam Goucher have been secretly training with the team, and have a year of eligibility remaining so there are going to be some surprise mugs on Monday that's fo sho. I heard it from reliable inside sources. ZZZzzzZZZzzz.

Edmonton Oilers '89/90

After Peter Pocklington dealt away Superstar Wayne Gretzky, holder of 40+ NHL records, the Oiler's win their 5th Stanley cup of the decade.

Yeah, just like when the Bulls won the first 3 NBA titles in a row, then Jordan retired, oh, yeah not a good example. But he then came back and won 3 more, then retired again and the Bulls...uh, yeah. Well they would be good examples if the Bulls did not suck with out him. Maybe they should have tried to get Ewing and then have him retire.

Uh,

XC seems like a slightly different team sport than football, Basketball, etc. Any examples of this "Ewing Theory" with a cross country team?

I saw Colorado run at Mountain regionals. J. Torres absolutely blasted the field, and his brother ran well. But I wasn't dramatically impressed with the rest of the team. In a way, they did well to place 2nd. I bet they don't do it.

Its nice to provide a thread were a debate can occur; however, Colorado have about as much chance as winnning the NCAA's monday as a snowstorm in hades! I have great admiration for Colorado but this is Stanford's title only to lose if they chose. I love Flanagan but can she beat Paula (thats my comparison of Colorado's team against Stanford)?

Vipam

To say that Colorado has next to no chance of winning is a bit of a stretch. They are one of the best teams in the country, and they are the defending champs. And while Stanford is a big favorite, the meet hasn't taken place. They still have to run the race. Nobody's gonna just hand it to Stanford because they're the best team on paper.

That being said, I would predict that Stanford will win on Monday. And while I'm pulling for CU, with the loss of Ritz, I would consider a top 3 finish for the Buffs as a very successful Nationals.

Newsflash! Researchers have just discovered - cross-country is significantly different than (gasp) basketball! (And football and baseball as well.) Yes, cross-country is also a team sport...but it's really just the sum of its parts. Unless Severy and Nelson are somehow inspired to run as fast as Hall or Dobson or Tenforde or Meindl (or whoever else finishes 4th and 5th for Stanford) by their fallen teammate, CU finishes no higher than 3rd.

My gut feeling says Colorado will win the title. They have all of the intangibles on their side.

Ed Torres will rise to the occasion BIG TIME (just a hunch) and Slattery and Nelson will come through (Jorge is a given to run well). If the 5th man can overachieve by 20", then Stanford's depth will only help them so much.

Also: I think that Robison may have an 'off' race, because he is just good enough to THINK that he can stay with anyone......but then maybe he can!

very amusing post. 10k on grass in indiana or anywhere for that matter is a unique experience not relevant to any other sport. if ritz runs and can be effective (top 15), and the weather gets a little shitty, colorado will be a major factor. they still may not win but they'll be maybe top 10 at 5k top 5 at 8k and closing like mad those last 2000 meters. hogs and cardinal better be looking over their shoulders.