What will Ritz do now?

Rupp's mission in Eugene is to make the team, not to help Ritz get the A standard. Sure there is a scenario where it benefits both of them to work out a fast pace--but it's really a time for Rupp to do what he needs to do to enhance his Olympic chances, period.

I think it's 50/50 whether Ritz makes the team in either the 5 or 10. Should he earn a spot, he'll be fit enough for a good Olympics, but I don't see him kicking with the big boys to medal territory.

Not all is lost wrote:

Lets talk about this more. His run today gave him the Oly b-standard. Lets say he makes the team , does not get the a-standard , two other that make the team have a -standard as well. Others have the a-standard but do not make the team , who goes to the games ? Does the b-standard and making the team trump a-standard and not making the team ??

If two or more runners finish the trials race with the A standard, then those runners will make the team in order of finish and a B standard runner is out of luck, regardless of finish place. There is no chasing the A standard after the trials.

The only way a B standard runner makes the team if he finishes ahead of all other runners with either an A or B standard and no more then one A standard runner finishes the race.

So for these Olympic Trials, where pretty much every event will have more then one finisher with the Olympic A standard, a B standard at the end of the final isn't going to make the team.

Go to www.usatf.org to find US policy. It appears to me that there is no way a B qualifier will go as long as there are people with the A. Ritz has to get the A at the trials in order to go...as well as make the team of course.

Coach Owl Birdo wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

Indeed, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't run the 10 at the Trials.

50% chance of 60; 30 % chance of 70; 20% chance of 80

based on the last ten years.

LOGIC FAIL

What was Ritz' 5K split??

ttc wrote:

What was Ritz' 5K split??

14:30

It will make for an interesting race. Rupp is dominant in American 10K running but I don't know if he is so dominant that he can pace the entire field to sub A standard time without taking a little risk that he himself misses out on a spot. I imagine Rupp would feel a lot more comfortable doing what he did last year, knowing that nobody can handle his kick over the last 800M. But of course that was 29 minute pace. Ritz will have to do a lot of the work himself.

AXC wrote:

I'd say there is a 90% chance Rupp and Ritz will share the lead at the Olympic trials to ensure that the pace will hit the "A" standard. The two are teamates and with Rupp as the clear class of the field, it is in his interest to ensure the pace is honest to diminish the chances of a catastrophe on the last lap that could knock him off the team.

If Ritz can't run the "A" standard from help with Rupp at the trials then he doesn't really deserve to be on the team.

AXC wrote:

If Ritz can't run the "A" standard from help with Rupp at the trials then he doesn't really deserve to be on the team.

[/quote]

Well said. If you cant run the standard without the HELP of a teammate as a pacer at the trials, then how do you expect to do, (if you do qualify for the Olypmics) in a race where it is everyone man for themselves. There are other runners more deserving of this 10k Olympic berth than Ritz

Missouri River Runner wrote:

He needs to reevaluate. Watching him go through the last few months has been like watching a slow train wreck.

lol@tards.. wrote:

i'm just going off the top of my head, but in the last seven weeks i believe he has gone from 28:21 in perfect conditions to 27:50 in the heat... that, combined with the 13:14 at oxy make me think that he'll definitely be in shape to hit the standard at the trials...

lol@tards: Are you paid by Salazar to search for and defend against every word suggesting anything less than perfection on his part? Seems like it.

Gator Trap wrote:

I thought if Ritz has the B and 2 other A's qualify...he's good?

Absolutely not.

If there are any As at all selected in the event, there can be no B-only guys. This is worldwide.

simple...Ritz will do his hot girlfriend

What was Ritz' 5K split? I doubt 14:30, like the above reply.

Do recent 2:09.55 & 13:14's mean he needs thresholds, to translate those 'tools' to the 10K?

jcisidmim wrote:

The problem for all the guys without the A, will be that they have to be aggressive early. Who is going to sacrifice them self to lead?

Given what we witnessed at last year's WC "trials" joke 10,000 - NOBODY.

All of the second-tier guys will dutifully follow as Rupp runs his half marathon pace for 8000 and then romps on them for 2000.

If Ritz wants to go get it, there is nothing about the current crop of non-Rupp US men that suggests he'll have company.

It is somewhat ironic that Ritz made the 2004 team because he had the A standard and all he had to do was hobble around to finish the race.

Now the situation is reversed for him.

NOCs may enter up to three athletes for each event on the athletics program, provided they have achieved the A standard. In addition they can enter one reserve athlete for the same event provided he/she has also achieved the A standard.

NOCs may enter one athlete for each event on the athletics program if he/she has achieved at least the B standard. In addition they can enter one reserve athlete for the same event provided he/she has also achieved at least the B standard.

http://www.iaaf.org/mm/document/statistics/standards/05/90/83/20110119112034_httppostedfile_qualificationsystem-athletics-iaaf-21112010_23249.pdf

I agree with all of that. I seriously doubt Rupp will run one step faster than he has to, given that he'll still have two 5,000s to run. If Ritz decides to try the 10, he's on his own.

I'd take this a step further. Rupp will try and slow the field down. He is going for the double and the 10k is before the 5k. Rupp being in the field is a detriment (or at best neutral, like you point out) to Ritz. Rupp has has excellent 1500m speed. He won't have to do anything except sit in the pack until 800m to go, just like last time.

tsquaredcali wrote:

Go to

http://www.usatf.org

to find US policy. It appears to me that there is no way a B qualifier will go as long as there are people with the A. Ritz has to get the A at the trials in order to go...as well as make the team of course.

Isn't it an IOC rule? A country can send 1 athlete in each event and up to 3 if they've met the the A standard. I'm not 100% sure if the B standard is required for 1 athlete - in the marathon it isn't (some of the "exotic" countries send guys with 2:45 PRs) but I assume in the track events they require the B standard so the field doesn't get bloated and force too many heats.

Should be simple to look it up, I'm just being lazy.