Pick Em (OLY TRIALS 2012)

The last statement. If Andrews does the 1500 he needs to figure out how to be more tactically efficient. Sitting in last and running a 53 last lap in every round may take its toll (or maybe not depending on the pace) but it is risky trying to go by that many people. Centro is a lock in 15 unless he is hurt or something. For Steeple I choose Alcorn.

as last to get in that is (for Alcorn)

800 Symmonds, KD, Jock

1500 Centro, Wheating, Torrence

3000SC Jager, Nelson, Alcorn

5000 Rupp, Lagat, Lomong

10000 Rupp, Ritz, Derrick

Here is the simple truth wrote:

What many don't seem to be taking into account is this simple reality - Centro is The Man. Always has been. He OWNS the US 1500 for the next six years. Might as well get used to it.

I agree with this. Only way Centro doesn't make the team is if there is an injury that we don't know about. If he is healthy, he is the number the #1 guy for sure.

What do people think about Bumbalough's disappointing 3:40 (fading badly in a 3:34 race) in regard to his chances for the 5000? If he doesn't have more strength and speed than he showed in that race, there's no way he'll beat Teg. I see Lomong going 1500, so I don't think he'll be an issue. Teg will be the guy he really just has to beat to get in. I expected Bumbalough to run closer to 3:35 this close to the trials...

800- Symmonds, Andrews, Jock

1500- Centro, Wheating, Manzano

Steeple- Fam (Everyone seems to be forgetting about him), Jagar, Cabral

5k- Lagat, Rupp, Lomong

10k- Rupp, Derrick, Ritz

800 - Symmonds Andrews and surprise surprise ALAN WEBB

1500 - Lagat Wheating Torrence

5000 - Lagat Ritz Tegenkamp

10000 - Rupp Ritz Derrick

800: Symmonds, Jock, Andrews - I say the 3:34 indicates that Robby has the strength to get through the rounds, this year and he won't have the extra college races in his legs. He admits that Webb is way stronger than him right now which tells me he likely isn't ready for the rounds of the 1500 despite being a phenomenal one off.

1500: Lomong, Wheating, Torrence - only about a thousand possible combinations here, but Lomong can't double and he likely will be a great 5k guy I just think he still has to run the 1500 so Jerry's other guys have a chance to make the team. Wheating is coming along nicely and Torrence showed crazy strength in his 5000. I would love for Webb to make it but he is still behind the 8-ball. Centro would be a lock, but not having seen him for a while is scaring me. Last year he had raced a ton by now and I didn't think Powell wanted to change too much since things worked so well last year; so I feel like if he were 100% we would have seen him.

Steeple: Jager, Huling, Alcorn - Cabral will be odd man out with all the extra races he has ahead of him and then trying to get through rounds. Another one off stud, but I think the strength of the pros will win out. Next year he'll be dangerous.

5000: Lagat, Rupp, Ritz - Total guess on 3rd spot, but I feel like he might get outkicked in the 10 and have to really drive for this.

10,000: Rupp, Derrick, Teg - Really guessing that Teg runs this to try to free up Bumby to make the 5 team. I could easily see Ritz and Teg switch spots.

800 - Symmonds, Andrews, Jock - haven't see KD yet, that's counting against him here

1500 - Centro (assuming there's no unheard of injury), Lomong (if he runs), Manzano, Torrence - Wheating doesn't have the fitness or the tactics to hang with the other men right now, espec. if Leo and Torrence are 'on', he could get in if Centro's hurt or Lomong doesn't run though

5000 - Lagat, Lomong (same deal with the 15), Rupp, Torrence, Riz (both same as Lomong) - lots of question marks here apparently

3000 S/C - Jager, Cabral (don't sleep!), Nelson - surprisingly deep event, shut up to whoever said Fam was a threat

Forgot:

10000 - Rupp, Ritz (assuming he runs), Derrick - easiest call of the meet

thirty two wrote:

800 - Symmonds, Andrews, Jock - haven't see KD yet, that's counting against him here

1500 - Centro (assuming there's no unheard of injury), Lomong (if he runs), Manzano, Torrence - Wheating doesn't have the fitness or the tactics to hang with the other men right now, espec. if Leo and Torrence are 'on', he could get in if Centro's hurt or Lomong doesn't run though

5000 - Lagat, Lomong (same deal with the 15), Rupp, Torrence, Riz (both same as Lomong) - lots of question marks here apparently

3000 S/C - Jager, Cabral (don't sleep!), Nelson - surprisingly deep event, shut up to whoever said Fam was a threat

KD ran at Penn and split 1:44.9. I think his experience will be beneficial and will get him a spot. Remember, he qualified for the WC team last year.

I think Symmonds is your safest pick, and I think Andrews and Jock are the "sexy picks".

thirty two wrote:

Forgot:

10000 - Rupp, Ritz (assuming he runs), Derrick - easiest call of the meet

I disagree. Derrick will have had a protracted season. Curtis has a faster PR, and if he's in shape, he'll be in the mix, as might some others.

Andrews won't make it for any event because he has an ugly face. And he can't beat Jock, Symmonds, KD, or Rutt in the 800 and about 3 dozen 1500 guys. So that's that. Plus he trains with Webb so that is holding him back.

800: Symmonds, Jock, Andrews

1500: Centro, Manzano, Andrews/Wheating/Torrence

3000 S/C: Jager, Cabral, Huling/Nelson

5k: Rupp, Lagat, Lomong (if he runs) and Ritz/Teg/Torrence

10k: Rupp, Ritz, Derrick/Teg

Torrence is my Dark Horse of the USA Trials...If the 5k doesn't feature Lomong and it's a sit and kick race, I think his top end speed will favor him over Rtiz and Teg.

mikerob21 wrote:

800- Symmonds, Andrews, Jock

1500- Centro, Wheating, Manzano

Steeple- Fam (Everyone seems to be forgetting about him), Jagar, Cabral

5k- Lagat, Rupp, Lomong

10k- Rupp, Derrick, Ritz

I agree with every one of these, except Fam. American steepling has improved too much to pick him with so much to make up in the last month. I'll replace him with Huling. Brilliant picks though sir.

The 800 and 1500 will be the hardest to pick because of how deep the U.S. is at both events.

800:

1st- Symmonds

2nd- Jock

3rd- Mulder (dark horse pick)

4th and misses it- Andrews

*Like I said, too hard to decide*

1,500:

1st- Manzano

2nd- Wheating

3rd- Torrence

4th and misses it- Brown

*Is Centro injured? Heard that he was, but not sure. If not, bump him up to the #1 spot then, making Torrence finishing 4th*

Steeple:

1st- Jager

2nd- Cabral

3rd- Huling

4th and misses it- Alcorn

5,000:

1st- Lagat

2nd- Rupp

3rd- Lomong

4th and misses it- Teg

10,000:

1st- Rupp

2nd- Ritz

3rd- Curtis/Derrick (one will finish 3rd while the other will finish 4th, too close for me to call)

TL;DR There are gonna be some sad, fast folks after the men's 1500m Trials.

ronner wrote:

Here is the simple truth wrote:

What many don't seem to be taking into account is this simple reality - Centro is The Man. Always has been. He OWNS the US 1500 for the next six years. Might as well get used to it.

I agree with this. Only way Centro doesn't make the team is if there is an injury that we don't know about. If he is healthy, he is the number the #1 guy for sure.

Centro should be a lock. People are forgetting how good he is because he has not raced since indoors where he ran solid but nothing out of this world.

Centro is a lot more comfortable outdoors than indoors and should do big things.

800- Jock, Symmonds,Robinson

1500- centro, wheating, Lomong, leo will probably steal one of those spots though. Webb won't learn his lesson, take the lead at 400 and get run down in the last 150

Steeple- Huling, Jager, Alcorn, Cabral will be raced out by then.

5000- Lagat, Rupp, Torrence ( I think he has a better shot making the team in the 5000 and should just scrap the 1500, probably won't though)

10000- Rupp, Teg, Ritz

800- Beckworth, Montoya, Vessey

1500- Uceny, Rowberry, Simpson

Steeple- Coburn, Delilah, Hall

5000- Huddle, Lucas, Culley

10000- Cherobon-Bawcom, Hastings, Uhl

Ritz will be watching the trials from the stands wearing a boot.