Of course looking at a home video is not the best source of evidence, but here are a couple of things to consider.
1. His leg speed is not very good as noted on the final backstretch where he was easily passed by the GM runner. If his leg speed was ok, he would have been able to hold the guy off going into the turn. Didn't happen.
2. He looks top heavy, even more than he has in the past.
3. Hard to tell if he did clip the runner in front, but he did get cut off after the first 200, had to slow down and move a bit outside. This second cut might have been his moving up inside instead of first moving out and then picking up speed. But then with his vast experience seems a bit strange to me that he would do something a less experienced runner might do.
If anyone thinks he is in pretty good shape, I don't agree. It seems to me that he would have struggled over the last 40 meters no matter what.
He has done quiet races in the past, one year going up to Boston and running a sub 4:00 at the then new BU facility, while the New Balance meet was at the Reggie Lewis Center. There have been other instances where you just kind of shows up and races without fanfare. So, he apparently likes to run low key early on.
Finally, he has a long way to go, but not a lot of time to get ready....