I'll admit, I wasn't too clear on my points so let me explain.
Ritz won't be in top shape like you said. However, having the pace be quicker, in the 1:04 range at the first half will work to his advantage. It will work to his advantage because even not in top form, he could still close in 1:04-5 and run in the 2:09, low 2:10 range, possibly setting a PR and securing a spot.
If the pace goes out at 1:06 and finishes with a 1:02-1:03 with Hall, Meb, Trafeh, etc closing hard I believe Ritz will be in trouble.
Due to his major fuel issues in previous marathons I don't see him rocking a 1:02:XX last half, but can definitely see him running even 1:04:XX/1:04:XX splits.
The marathon has been his weakest event (time wise) so in order to make the team he will need the pace to be honest from the start. While he isn't in top form, I still believe he could run 2:09. In top form Ritz, according to his other PRs, should be able to run 2:06.