1) Hall - no explanation needed, would be stunning/shocking/any ridiculous description if he didn't make it considering every single marathon he's run has been plenty good enough to make a US Olympic team.
2) Meb - he was really good in NYC, so while there is some slight doubt about the 10 week turn around, it's hard to think he won't be fit enough to make the team if he's healthy. He hasn't run a bad marathon in a long time when healthy, so he has to be a solid bet to make it.
3) Ritz - comeback seems to be going well and even though he hasn't nailed a marathon, he hasn't run poorly in one since his debut. If he makes it to the line healthy (like Meb), a very good bet to make it.
4) Arciniaga - A couple 2:11's, and outside of the world championships, has been consistent recently in the marathon. I think he's the guy most likely to make it if one of the top 3 blow up as Houston won't be Daegu hot.
5) Gotcher - Would have loved to see him run well at Boston to make it 2 out of 3 in marathons, but I think he's probably learned a lot in the past 2 years and is going to run well in Houston. Definitely has the potential to lay an egg though, so Hartmann, Lehmkule or someone making a big jump into the 2:10 range could easily be here.
1) Flanagan - most likely to win, but also based on her limited marathon experience, it isn't inconceivable she runs into a problem or two during the race. It would still be shocking if she didn't make it.
2) Davila - I think the biggest lock to make the team, but not as likely as Flanagan to win. Keeps improving (although that may not continue as 2:22 will be incredibly hard to top) and she hasn't blown up since her debut.
3) Goucher - the coaching change throws a bit of uncertainty out there for her, but her marathoning record is great for an American. Her slowest was still a 3rd in Boston, so in some ways I think she might have better top 3 odds than Flanagan if she's on the line healthy (but less likely to win).
4) Hastings - great run in LA in less than ideal weather and had a very good summer on the track. No reason why she can't drop down to 2:25 and be in the hunt to make it.
5) Magda - This is a tough pick, as there are people improving who could easily make a big jump at the trials and I'm not sold on Magda's less than impressive shorter races. She's still run the best marathon out of everyone else though (minus Deena obviously), so that's why I'll pick her for top 5.
I'm not sold on Deena at all. She had numerous poor marathons before her pregnancy and seemed to only be getting worse. It's encouraging for her to see the results improving, but I would be really surprised if she was in the mix after 20 miles at the trials.