Give Me Your Top 5 for the Olympic Marathon Trials

Does anyone know if Abdi is still running? I wouldn't count him out. He had a good day in New Haven a couple of months ago. He is coming on right now. There is always a surprise in the top 5. Whether he has a shot at making the top 3 I'm not sure but it's possible.

Hall

Meb

Ritz

Davilla

Flanagan

Goucher

mens race is stacked as to who can take the 4th and 5th...

it seems like we all agree meb, hall and ritz for the top 3...

my 4th and 5th would be cabada (he is very inconsistent but is coming off fresh with confidence as 25k usa champ knows this is probably going to be one of his best opportunities to make the team and probably torres since he has the experience . my dark horses would be king and arciniaga . nelson not enough experience in the marathon. i think nelson has a better chance and a pretty good one if he stays healthy at the 10k trials in june

it doesn't matter in London they will be;

40th

54th and DNF

I disagree. All of the women will be contenders. They've all run top 3 in a major marathon (Desi, Flanagan, Goucher, Kastor) against stiff competition. They probably won't win, but I certainly wouldn't count out someone like Shalane Flanagan.As for the men, you know Ryan Hall and Meb will stick with the lead pack as long as humanly possible. Unless the men's marathon is run in 2:05, you can count on them sticking it out.I think Hall is a sure thing for the squad. His personal worst would probably net him 3rd at the trials.

runner39 wrote:

it doesn't matter in London they will be;

40th

54th and DNF

1) Hall

2) Ritz

3) Barnicle (very curious to see how his training is going in Kenya)

Men:

1) Hall - no explanation needed, would be stunning/shocking/any ridiculous description if he didn't make it considering every single marathon he's run has been plenty good enough to make a US Olympic team.

2) Meb - he was really good in NYC, so while there is some slight doubt about the 10 week turn around, it's hard to think he won't be fit enough to make the team if he's healthy. He hasn't run a bad marathon in a long time when healthy, so he has to be a solid bet to make it.

3) Ritz - comeback seems to be going well and even though he hasn't nailed a marathon, he hasn't run poorly in one since his debut. If he makes it to the line healthy (like Meb), a very good bet to make it.

4) Arciniaga - A couple 2:11's, and outside of the world championships, has been consistent recently in the marathon. I think he's the guy most likely to make it if one of the top 3 blow up as Houston won't be Daegu hot.

5) Gotcher - Would have loved to see him run well at Boston to make it 2 out of 3 in marathons, but I think he's probably learned a lot in the past 2 years and is going to run well in Houston. Definitely has the potential to lay an egg though, so Hartmann, Lehmkule or someone making a big jump into the 2:10 range could easily be here.

Women:

1) Flanagan - most likely to win, but also based on her limited marathon experience, it isn't inconceivable she runs into a problem or two during the race. It would still be shocking if she didn't make it.

2) Davila - I think the biggest lock to make the team, but not as likely as Flanagan to win. Keeps improving (although that may not continue as 2:22 will be incredibly hard to top) and she hasn't blown up since her debut.

3) Goucher - the coaching change throws a bit of uncertainty out there for her, but her marathoning record is great for an American. Her slowest was still a 3rd in Boston, so in some ways I think she might have better top 3 odds than Flanagan if she's on the line healthy (but less likely to win).

4) Hastings - great run in LA in less than ideal weather and had a very good summer on the track. No reason why she can't drop down to 2:25 and be in the hunt to make it.

5) Magda - This is a tough pick, as there are people improving who could easily make a big jump at the trials and I'm not sold on Magda's less than impressive shorter races. She's still run the best marathon out of everyone else though (minus Deena obviously), so that's why I'll pick her for top 5.

I'm not sold on Deena at all. She had numerous poor marathons before her pregnancy and seemed to only be getting worse. It's encouraging for her to see the results improving, but I would be really surprised if she was in the mix after 20 miles at the trials.

where is the volume wrote:

Meb and 4 slow white guys. None will be in the money.

A better question would be where the first American will cross the finish line in London.

Maybe 1 in the top 20.

Remember there will only be 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians on each team and I think Hall and Ritz and Meb will all be in the mix(top 15) in London if they don't blow the trials

Men:

1) Hall

2) Meb

3) Arciniaga

4) trafeh

5) Jankowski

Top five are easy:

1. Dy lan

2. Dy lan

3. Dy lan

4. Dy lan

5. Dy lan

Running in the Rain wrote:

Remember there will only be 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians on each team and I think Hall and Ritz and Meb will all be in the mix(top 15) in London if they don't blow the trials

Mostly agree with you.

If our team consists of Hall, Meb and Ritz then I would be willing to bet that Hall will be top 5 in London and at least one other will be top 15. Most likely something will go wrong for one of the three so I wouldn't bet on 3 in the top 15.

If I remember correctly, there were 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians in Beijing in '08 and the Americans were 9th, 10th and 21st....not bad.And this team will be better than that '08 team....but so will the East African squads.Hall, Meb, Ritz.Desi, Shalane and ???

Running in the Rain wrote:

where is the volume wrote:

Meb and 4 slow white guys. None will be in the money.

A better question would be where the first American will cross the finish line in London.

Maybe 1 in the top 20.

Remember there will only be 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians on each team and I think Hall and Ritz and Meb will all be in the mix(top 15) in London if they don't blow the trials

mememe wrote:

Janet Cherobon-Bawcom...I wouldn't count her out....

Agreed, and agree with Wejo, that it would be similar to Trafeh 'busting up'.

Maybe Vaughn could be a 'bust up' candidate too.

Ritz and Pritz for the wins, wouldn't that be a hoot!

You know what? I'm the biggest Hall fan you'll meet, but I'm going to predict Meb has a better chance of winning here. The 10-week turnaround is atypical, but everyone is different, and he seems fine with it.

1) Meb - older and slower maybe, but Hall's advantage will never be his speed

2) Hall - the spot is his to lose. I feel like he's not the best at getting fast (flat-course) from his marathon training, though.

3) Ritz - far more talented than the rest of the field

4) Gotcher - probably won't run above his head again because of his last marathon, so he'll have a good chance of running well.

5) Nelson - guy has a fast 10k and a fantastic coach. He should handle the fast course well.

Marathon Skinny wrote:

How the women's race will unfold:

My guess is that pace is kept reasonable with a 1:13 mid to 1:14 low at the half and then the pack slowly dwindles until mile 20 when 4-5 women are left in the lead pack. Then one of the big dogs makes a move to go for the win and the rest of the pack is strung out.

I don't think anyone benefits from making it overly fast, as they will have to do all the work, but I also don't think a few of them will let it be overly slow either. Probably steady 5:35-5:40's per mile until someone makes a move after 30k.

Think about it, which big track dog wants to go tactical and race the last 5k? Flanagan.

Which other big dog wants to latch onto that strategy? Goucher.

So Davilla is forced to go out front and try to hit an even 2:26-2:27, right?

Road racer C-Bawcom is going to hang with her as long as she can. If Davilla and C-Bawcom could agree to take turns sharing the load, Goucher could eventually drop if she isn't fully back to fitness.

From the wire... wrote:

Think about it... If Davilla and C-Bawcom could agree to take turns sharing the load, Goucher could eventually drop if she isn't fully back to fitness.

Hmmm...so maybe Nike would consider offering C-Bawcom some under-the-table 'incentives' not to do that?

Corporate Machine wrote:

From the wire...

Think about it... If Davilla and C-Bawcom could agree to take turns sharing the load, Goucher could eventually drop if she isn't fully back to fitness.

Hmmm...so maybe Nike would consider offering C-Bawcom some under-the-table 'incentives' not to do that?

Not sure if she has a sponsor yet, but isn't Jack Daniels her coach? If Daniels thinks she has a legitimate shot, Nike would probably have to come up with a shoe contract to engage her in team tactics, no?

Anyone could be in the top 5 Wejo. Of course the big names will always be at the top of everyones list but there are many other qualified men preparing to be in that top 5. Would be great to see a 2.17-19 guy run a huge PR. Briney in 2004 was a great example of this.