First off, Glusac is HOT!!!
http://imageofsport.hosted.photocore.us/images/spacer.gif
Secondly, LV runs the following:
1. Top 5 in frosh cross country
2. 13:15 5K
3. 3:51 mile
BOOM! Like MG chest!
races
ventolin^3 wrote:
eh ?
those times are from different years & not in same shape
go watch salazar video where he says he is in shape of his life & whatever mo can run, rupp is "neck & neck"
i do still believe mo is slightly better at all distances, but going on above, a coupla reasonable lines of fit for rupp currently are :
52.00 / 1'49.30 -> 3'34.0 , 4'50.8 , 7'27.8 , 12'50.7 , 26'47.7
or
52.10 / 1'49.40 -> 3'34.0 , 4'50.7 , 7'27.5 , 12'49.7 , 26'44.4
Oh my freaking god. How do actual real pr's of 1:50 and 3:39 become 1:49.3 and 3:34? Rupp has run plenty of 1500's and miles and never has come within sniffing distance of 3:34. You are insane to award him that time. You're simply inventing things so that you can squeeze this all on a best fit line.
Here's an idea. Take out the 400 entirely since it is just speculation. He's run a lot of 800's and a lot of 1500's and miles, so use his actual pr's as your inputs. If you don't like the 3k, 5k, and 10k times that get spit out, well then guess what? Your calculator sucks.
you are clueless abot such factors such as "improvement" or running in elite, paced races
his 800 of 1'50 is from 2y ago
his 3'39 from a low key unpaced meet also 2y ago
now, use your brain & think what he coud go for 800/1500 NOW, in form of his life & especially for 1500 in an elite euro race using his great stamina with a drive from 500 - 600 out
in fact i tried a lot more permutations for him : these may be better :
52.30 / 1'49.70 - 1'49.80 ->
3'34.4 - 3'34.8
4'51.1 - 4'51.7
7'27.9 - 7'29.0
12'49.9 - 12'52.2
26'43.6 - 26'49.4
no way Rupp runs 3:34. no way. solinsky's best is 3:35.89, and by all indications, he is the faster mid-d runner.
not if salazar's assertion is correct
"neck'n'neck" in training with mo, a 3'33 guy, indicates his 1500 woud be similar
i'd also add sol woud likely have been quicker than 3'35 in a "perfect" race in his 26'59 shape
Drivel. Nonsense. You are truly a moron. You want to speculate on everything when instead you could be looking at the hard facts.
Rupp ran 27:36 in 2008 in a hot, humid, non-paced race (Beijing Olympics). That is an outstanding performance, worth more than 27:36 but I will attempt to quantify it. So those middle distance times from several years back were already coming from a high caliber athlete. Here are the pr's he set after already being world class:
May 2009 - 1:50.00
May 2009 - 3:39.14
July 2010 - 3:57.72
So my point about your bullshit line that connects 1:50-3:39-3:57 to 7:49-13:39-28:59 is completely relevant. Rupp ran that 3:57.72 in JULY! That is late enough in the season that we can't just write him off as not being sharp. In fact, I think he probably WAS sharp. 3:57 is good for him, he has run lots of 3:59's in his life.
My point is (1) you can be a 3:57 miler AND a 27:30 guy at the same time. (2) therefore your calculator sucks.
just last year, Rupp ran:
One Mile 3:57.72 on 03/07/2010
after:
10,000 Metres 27:10.74 01/05/2010
I don't see Rupp @ 3:34.
im the stat man wrote:Rupp ran 27:36 in 2008 in a hot, humid, non-paced race (Beijing Olympics). That is an outstanding performance, worth more than 27:36 but I will attempt to quantify it
moron
so where is the quantifying ???
what's the number for that run on a temperate day in a euro race ???
So those middle distance times from several years back were already coming from a high caliber athlete. Here are the pr's he set after already being world class:
May 2009 - 1:50.00
May 2009 - 3:39.14
July 2010 - 3:57.72
the 800 is close enough for what he looks like now
as for the 1500 - what part of "non-paced, unelite, non-euro race" does your peabrain not comprehend ???
as for that mile, it was a poor race from him
a guy with 1'50 speed with fantastic endurance only goes 3'57 ?!
So my point about your bullshit line that connects 1:50-3:39-3:57 to 7:49-13:39-28:59 is completely relevant
it's nonsense without looking at race context
Rupp ran that 3:57.72 in JULY! That is late enough in the season that we can't just write him off as not being sharp. In fact, I think he probably WAS sharp. 3:57 is good for him, he has run lots of 3:59's in his life
see above
My point is (1) you can be a 3:57 miler AND a 27:30 guy at the same time
i'm sure you can be if you are some non-descript mid-pack kenyan
that is not rupp
LV will never run the 1500 at Oregon, except for maybe some "speedwork" as prep for the longer races. LV is not and will never be a miler. His gift is the right combination of leg speed and strength.
Assuming LV runs cross country in the Fall, I would certainly expect him to run top 10 at Nationals. LV should be trained for 5k and 10k -- that's where he has the most potential. Good luck to him -- would love to see him keep advancing.
ventolin^3 wrote:
moron
so where is the quantifying ???
what's the number for that run on a temperate day in a euro race ???
Typo. That should have been "I will not attempt to quantify it". Not relevant to my point anyway, your calculator was predicting 28:59, which is so far off that we don't even need to speculate about what that 27:36 in the heat was worth.
Also,
ventolin^3 wrote:
a guy with 1'50 speed with fantastic endurance only goes 3'57 ?!
Yes, it would appear so. See the post after mine. 27:10 in May, 3:57 in July. Poor race my ass, it was a pr.
im the stat man wrote:Not relevant to my point anyway, your calculator was predicting 28:59, which is so far off that we don't even need to speculate about what that 27:36 in the heat was worth
what on earth are you drivelling on about ???
28'59 is for LV currently
sub-26'50 for rupp based on salazar
Yes, it would appear so. See the post after mine. 27:10 in May, 3:57 in July. Poor race my ass, it was a pr.
both his 1500/mile pbs were run in eugene
salazar stopped him running there this year because of the pollen count & his hayfever
it's possible there were high pollen counts there when he ran his 1500/mile pbs but he still ran
despite being pbs, there is enough doubt for him & this venue to believe he ran well below his potential
learn some analysis
IAAF tables have 1100 points for 3:40.52 1500, 3:57.97 mile, 7:52.61 3000, 8:29.23 2-mile, 13:30.73 5000, 28:21 10,000. These should be a good guide to where he is now and a year from now dropping to 13:25 would be in the feasible range if nothing goes wrong.
3:42/4:00
7:53
13:28
28:35
Ventolin is an idiot. Parker Stinson ran a 29:32 last year. Verzbikas is 10 seconds faster in the MILE and 25 seconds faster in the 2 MILE. He could most definitely run in the mid 28's for 10k easily.
That being said, I would expect him to not get much faster relative to his competition. There is a huge amount of 8:50-9:10 guys going to good programs in this class that maybe trained a quarter as much as he did in high school. If even only a handful of them can get the solid college training in, many will close the gap considerably... guys like Diego Estrada, Andy Bayer, and Joe Bosshard. They may never beat him conistently, but he will face steep competition ,even as a senior, if everything goes perfectly for him like no injuries.
my foolish friend
what is confusing people is that they believe LV has endurance as his key strength because he did triathlon
that calculator indicates his endurance is no better than many of his contemporaries - which is no surprise, as best way for a runner to build endurance is to do running & not some mickey mouse cycling/swimming thrown in
what they fail to grasp is that for a distance guy & young, he has likely fantastic open 400 speed ~ same level as peak geb/kennster at around 51-flat
this may be a function of his physique ( how tall is he ? )
what is happening is that he is tacking on non-superior endurance to some fantastic intrinsic speed, which is giving him some superb mile/2 mile times
by the time the races are 5k/10k, the superior speed advantage is dissipated by need to have greater endurance factor
that is why at 5k/10k he won't have advantage he seems to have at mile/2 miles
LV Freshman Yr
800m: 1:48
1500m: 3:32
3000m: 7:36
5000m: 12:55
10000m: 27:20
LV Senior Year
800m: 1:44
1500m: 3:27
3000m: 7:25
5000m: 12:40
10000m: 26:30
ventolin^3 wrote:
my foolish friend
what is confusing people is that they believe LV has endurance as his key strength because he did triathlon
that calculator indicates his endurance is no better than many of his contemporaries - which is no surprise, as best way for a runner to build endurance is to do running & not some mickey mouse cycling/swimming thrown in
what they fail to grasp is that for a distance guy & young, he has likely fantastic open 400 speed ~ same level as peak geb/kennster at around 51-flat
this may be a function of his physique ( how tall is he ? )
what is happening is that he is tacking on non-superior endurance to some fantastic intrinsic speed, which is giving him some superb mile/2 mile times
by the time the races are 5k/10k, the superior speed advantage is dissipated by need to have greater endurance factor
that is why at 5k/10k he won't have advantage he seems to have at mile/2 miles
Yeah, that's why he has only a slight advatage over Otzier and Geydon over mile(2-3 seconds) compared to how bad he crushed them in cross(might as well have been in another race). I'm pretty sure he's not superior because of speeed, it's his strength as those guys were actually some of the best in the country in cross.
Additionally, he ran 23:22....on a road course... when it was very windy... only a few seconds behind Simon Bairu. I am pretty sure in perfect conditions at Payton Jordan he could kill 29:00.
flo rida wrote:Yeah, that's why he has only a slight advatage over Otzier and Geydon over mile(2-3 seconds) compared to how bad he crushed them in cross(might as well have been in another race)
i don't follow these sub-elites except when asked
offer their times
