I think that Lukas will have a good year, but not anything amazing. Big key for him is to train smart and not get injured. It matters more what he does Junior/Senior year than Freshman/Sophmore year.
I think that Lukas will have a good year, but not anything amazing. Big key for him is to train smart and not get injured. It matters more what he does Junior/Senior year than Freshman/Sophmore year.
corn pone wrote:
I guess its too late for LV to try for Ed Eyestone's NCCA triple crown...XC champ, 5k and 10k in one season.
Or if he adds the indoor 3k, 5k and DMR he can have the "Rupp".
The 2008-2009 school year that Galen Rupp had was the greatest single year ever by a collegiate runner.
NCAA Titles that year in:
XC,
Indoor3k
Indoor 5k
Indoor DMR
Outdoor 5k
Outdoor 10k
6 NCAA titles in one year by a distance runner. Doesn't get any better than that.
LV should dream of that....
In his Freshman year:
3% chance to get it on with Hasay
2% chance to get it on with Kosinski.
40% chance to get it on with another OU female runner.
30% chance to get it on with a fangirl.
20% chance to strike out his freshman year.
5% chance to explore other options.
He ran 8.29 for 2 miles. Thats a 4.14 avg. If he slowed down 10 seconds per mile for a 5k Thats 13.40 so i say he can run 13.40 right now.
You're all crazy. Most top high schoolers struggle or stagnate for a year or two. Look at the evidence:
Elliot Heath--wins USATF junior XCs, then not a peep for a few years, now NCAA champ
Rob Finnerty--4:01 HS mile (3:59 1600 for the fanboys!) and is just now getting back to that same level
Galen Rupp--dominated high school, then not much until junior/senior
German Fernandez--dominated high school and early college, has struggled since then.
Webb--3:53 high school mile, struggled early in college (then quit)
Ben Blankenship--4:0x (?) high school mile, languished in Mississippi for a bit, now has run 3:54.
Lukas will be a great NCAA runner, and he might even do very well early next year, but he won't have consistent success his first two years. In fact, it'd be better for him to not. Drop off the radar for a while and get used to the new routine and training in college, then come back and attack. The NCAA is just too tough these days for a Prefontaine-like college career. Face it, if Pre was coming out of high school now, he'd be getting his butt kicked as an NCAA freshman just like all these other kids.
I say Lukas in his freshman year will run 3:55 for the mile and somewhere between 13:20 and 13:30 for the 5000m. If he can run two 4:14 miles right now then I am pretty sure he can run 3 miles at 4:20 pace to bring his 3 mile time to 13 flat and then he should have no problem covering the last 171 meters in 20 to 30 seconds
in the immediate future, trying :
A prelim line of fit is possibly :
51.00 / 1'50.00 -> 3'39.9 , 3'57.6 , 7'49.8 , 8'27.3 , 13'39.7 , 28'59.4
he won't break 13'40 or 29'00 in the immediacy...
There is no reason LV can't contend for the individual title in XC as a frosh. Prefontaine and Bob Kennedy both won individual titles as freshman, and neither were the high school runner LV was. Ritz was 4th as a frosh, and his high school PR's were only 8:41/ 13:44. Given LV's 8:29 2M, he should easily be able to run low 13:30's for the 5K now.
IAAF JR gold medalist 5K or 10K.
I don't know exactly what he'll do next year, but right now he can run 3:55-56 and DAMN he hates to lose!
cfdvfvgbgfr wrote:
u guys saying 13:20 are crazy. 13:40 would be phenomenal for LV as a freshman, 13:20 isn't gonna happen.
also, i very much doubt he will be in the 3:35 range. i expect him to peak around 3:38-3:40 next year with a good shot a making it to the 1500 final.
Welp. He was faster than German in high school, so I reckon he could be a bit better as a frosh too. We'll have to wait and see.
Actually, since Verzbikaz skipped a year of high school, he graduated at the same age as everybody else, unlike the cheating Africans who willfully lie about their age.
Rashid Ramzi 2012 wrote:
He'll run well because he is at least 2-3 years older than most of his competitors. Just like the Kenyan at Bible Thumping U.
He was old for his 'class', which was "junior" but not old for a senior; however, GF was young for his class (as was Hasay).
Not sure if you're trolling or not, but Pre wasn't an NCAA XC champ as a freshman. In fact, his only NCAA loss came as a freshman, where he finished a VERY impressive 3rd (to, I believe, Gerry Lindgren (1st), and someone else - I can't recall who second was.)
Source:
http://www.goducks.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=500&ATCLID=30594
illinoisphotographer wrote:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say not insanely faster than he currently is. You guys have to remember that he's been competing for 10+ years now where most HS athletes only have 5-6 under their belt.
I'd be surprised if he goes faster than 3:40, 13:35, and 28:30 (track). I'd also be surprised if he's higher than 10th in XC with so many returners. Being good at the HS level is completely different than being good at the college level.
I agree with this, I don't think people here realize how much more training this kid has done compared to other kids. Regardless if it was all running or not, this kid has built a MASSIVE MASSIVE aerobic foundation with his TRI training... he has been able to train more essentially by doing 3 sports at the same time. This is why I consider German Fernandez to be considerably more talented, not to mention the solo efforts.
I predict LV might have a hard time transitioning to Oregon's training. It seems his parents and him have developed a very specific training routine that he might have a hard time letting go... I don't see him making the leaps and bounds like Fernandez did. He is already at a high level and has a huge amount of work behind him, though this will probably carry over to next year.
Ritz, Hall, Webb, Fernandez... Yes LV ran faster in HS but you need to realize how MUCH MORE work he has put into his aerobic base with his triathlon background, it is a huge mount and you cannot over look it. This tri stuff has probably pushed him 3-4 years beyond what he could have done if he had just been a "runner" like the previous 4.
ventolin^3 wrote:
in the immediate future, trying :
http://www.jundo.co.ukA prelim line of fit is possibly :
51.00 / 1'50.00 -> 3'39.9 , 3'57.6 , 7'49.8 , 8'27.3 , 13'39.7 , 28'59.4
he won't break 13'40 or 29'00 in the immediacy...
Yet another example of how your calculator is broken.
Galen Rupp's pr's (taken from his IAAF bio):
1:50.00
3:39.14
3:57.72
7:43.24
13:07.35
27:10.74
asdfsdaf wrote:
You're all crazy. Most top high schoolers struggle or stagnate for a year or two. Look at the evidence:
Elliot Heath--wins USATF junior XCs, then not a peep for a few years, now NCAA champ
Rob Finnerty--4:01 HS mile (3:59 1600 for the fanboys!) and is just now getting back to that same level
Galen Rupp--dominated high school, then not much until junior/senior
German Fernandez--dominated high school and early college, has struggled since then.
Webb--3:53 high school mile, struggled early in college (then quit)
Ben Blankenship--4:0x (?) high school mile, languished in Mississippi for a bit, now has run 3:54.
Health-wins USATF junior XC, uhm, so what.
Galen Rupp-great senior year of highschool, even more success as college freshman 3k and 10k AJRs and 2nd in the 10k at NCAAs, then goes on to 6th at NCAA XC, a bunch more 2nd, 3rds, and 4ths, sets 10k NCAA record, gets 2nd at USAs and gets spot on World team. Little but success building on success in college.
German Fernandez-never "dominated" high school, humbled at Footlocker with distant 3rd, was able to do well for outdoor track with Chris Derrick injured. DNFed frosh XC, showboated fast times but wasted season with no NCAA indoor appearance, follows with great outdoor season, then career over.
Heres whats gunna happen...his glory days are over. He peaked in high school (just like Alan Webb minus a good race where he ran that kinda fast mile) and in three years we will all be like "O what ever happened to that Luckas Verzbikas kid" And then ill come back on and show you this quote and everybody will be like "o yea thats right."
Lets stir that pot!!
im the stat man wrote:Yet another example of how your calculator is broken.
Galen Rupp's pr's (taken from his IAAF bio):
1:50.00
3:39.14
3:57.72
7:43.24
13:07.35
27:10.74
eh ?
those times are from different years & not in same shape
go watch salazar video where he says he is in shape of his life & whatever mo can run, rupp is "neck & neck"
i do still believe mo is slightly better at all distances, but going on above, a coupla reasonable lines of fit for rupp currently are :
52.00 / 1'49.30 -> 3'34.0 , 4'50.8 , 7'27.8 , 12'50.7 , 26'47.7
or
52.10 / 1'49.40 -> 3'34.0 , 4'50.7 , 7'27.5 , 12'49.7 , 26'44.4