OSU's chances for repeating are looking even better after the Chili Pepper and Pre-Nats. Stublaski from OSU finished 31 seconds behind OSU's fourth man over 10k; Stanford's four and five finished 45 seconds behind their third over 8k.
Further, Stanford has to deal with the knowledge that its team collapsed last year at nationals after performing well at pre-nats and moving into first in the coaches' poll that week. OSU should be more confident that this team knows how to perform at the big one.
Yes... except OK State didn't really have a great race at nationals last year, they were just too loaded to lose. If anyone peaked well, it was Oregon.
Oregon runners definitely performed closer to their potential last year than Oklahoma State. Think Oregon has a good shot this year?
Not As Old NDN Runner wrote:
Oregon runners definitely performed closer to their potential last year than Oklahoma State. Think Oregon has a good shot this year?
A perfect scenario for Oregon v OK State would have the Ducks finish two (Puskedra and Centro) ahead of Cowboys' #1, then 3 Cowboys followed closely by Mercado then Farrell. That means two more Ducks would have to beat Stublaski by 10 spots or more for the Ducks to win.
Not a terribly likely scenario. But not entirely impossible.
It seemed that the meltdown of 2008 motivated OSU for their win in 2009. I would think Stanford might have the same motivation for 2010. If no one melts down and they just run anywhere close to potential, it should be a great race.
Not As Old NDN Runner wrote:
Oregon runners definitely performed closer to their potential last year than Oklahoma State. Think Oregon has a good shot this year?
Well, If Ahmed runs, Oregon does not even win there home invite with all their top guys running. It was virtually a dual meet, so the differential at NCAAs would be driven by the 4/5 guys. Wisconsin is younger than most teams, so their success will be a function of performance under pressure and how much more they can improve (younger guys may have more gains to make over the season than the older guys).
Another factor, which has not yet been breached but is nascent with Chile Pepper, is how will teams to when they move from 8k to 10k? Middle distance guys, arguably, are likely to have more of a drop off than others. Anyone got ideas on how this will affect the race?
Bump
Any possibility that Stanford peaked early last year and was tired by the time nationals rolled around?
Over 10k, Oklahoma State's top four look really good and Stublaski, more of a miler, improved dramatically over last year.
Thank god their coach is Dave Smith and not Martin Smith, otherwise all of his athletes and assistant coaches would jump ship...