SAMMY'S PERFORMANCE - MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN BEIJING?

I think VIPAM's analysis is correct. Wanjiru was playing good tactics and controlling the situation by not taking the lead too early, while repeatedly forcing Kebede to expend extra energy. Wanjiru's positioning behind Kebede made it difficult for Kebede to assess Wanjiru's condition. With his amazing confidence and running gifts, Wanjiru ran a smart race to beat a superb Kebede.

I think Wanjiru is capable of breaking the WR. While Gebreselassie is a fast marathoner, he has NEVER successfully run a competitive marathon with a deadly competitor like Wanjiru who can change the pace seemingly at will. There is a big difference between a time trial and a race. It will be interesting to see what happens at the NYC marathon

geb's obviously beaten a lot of great marathoners, so I don't see that. Wanjiru has not yet run 2:04, so hard to give him the WR.

Two things,

Interesting that if Wanjiru really did have that strategy, Makau did something similar in Berlin where he said he slowed down hoping that the people ahead of him would speed up and burn themselves out thinking now it was the time to break away. However as he said it didn't work so he went back to the lead pack. Wanjiru seemed to do the same thing by allowing Kebede to burn himself out and then finally overtaking him.

Secondly, for once there really is an excuse for a slower time. Wanjiru knew he wasn't in shape to run fast, that's why he picked Chicago over Berlin (which he probably would have lost). I'm not surprised that he waited to the end, wanting to spend as little energy as possible just to get the win (which is again why he switched races) so he can be all the more prepared for the WR assault in Dubai. Yes it was completely for a pay day so he could run slower, but it was part of his plans and hopefully the win (which seemed like it was easy since it came down to a kicker's race) didn't take too much out of him so he can be ready for a sick race in January.

Btw his marathon preparation is impeccable. It's like he's a complete marathon specialist. I think ideally one would be in their best shape for just one event and only run mediocre times in the others (like all of Wanjiru's other non-marathon races after Beijing). Ever since Wanjiru and then Tadese took the Half Marathon record from Haile, all outdoor distance World Records are held by different people (not counting 1500 and mile, 3000 and 2 mile etc as different events), all except for Bekele's. I said this in another thread a while ago, but someone else really should have the 5000m record over Bekele. The 10000m is his main and favorite event, he has said this, and it just shows that that event is lacking in good runners that he hold both. Ideally, runners would be specialists and each WR would be by a different runner. Coe was an 800m specialist and the fact he had the 1500m WR just showed a lack in that event, as 3:33 was much weaker than 1:41. That got taken care of soon after.

Before 2011 closes, Wanjiru will be having 2:04.20s or faster on his resume. In today's race, he showed that he has come along way by learning to have patience. He even mentioned it at the prerace conference that negative split is the way to go. That is to say that he does not plan to do 61:30s first half then try to hung the last half like he is known for. So expect a new Wanjiru(different tactics) next year and the years after. Seeing him race Kebede that last 5k,one wishes this guy had stuck at 5,000m and 10,000m for a while. He would have given Bekele real hell. These two runners uses mental games to win races.

Lekuta wrote:

Any word on Wajiru's last 800m? Sub-2:10?

ed eyestone calls "800 yards to go" in the video broadcast at race time of 2:04:24. 2:01 give or take parallax error and camera feed...

It WILL be interesting to see what happens when Wanjiru focuses on maintaining a fast steady pace required for a WR at Dubai.

Do some research on Geb's COMPETITIVE running at the marathon distance. There were no serious competitors at the Berlin, Dubai, and Amsterdam marathons he won and established records at. The first halfs were set-up by pacers and then Geb maintained the high pace. The best he could do at three London attempts was third. He did not run the Olympics because his agent could not control the field and pacing. Don't get me wrong. I think Geb is an amazing runner with lots of impressive wins and competition at a wide range of distances. It just would be nice to see him actually race a marathon against strong competitors and win.

Interesting that you should say this; I can't help wonder what might have been every time that Sammy pops a great marathon race. The guy ran a 26:41 10000m as a junior! I know that many so called African juniors are not really juniors at all (as pointed out by Renato Canova himself), but 26:41 is impressive at any age. Any one else ever wonder what Sammy might have been able/might be able to do on the track?

Red Fox wrote:

Interesting that you should say this; I can't help wonder what might have been every time that Sammy pops a great marathon race. The guy ran a 26:41 10000m as a junior! I know that many so called African juniors are not really juniors at all (as pointed out by Renato Canova himself), but 26:41 is impressive at any age. Any one else ever wonder what Sammy might have been able/might be able to do on the track?

I actually dont think its too late. He is still young and its amazing to think what he could accomplish on the track with a season dedicated to to specific 5/10k training.

something about wearing spikes causes him injuries

vdawg wrote:

something about wearing spikes causes him injuries

yeah he does kinda have a funky running form and pushoff

Today's race shows us why Geb doesn't try WR attempts with guys like Wanjiru involved. It inevitably gets into gamesmanship like we saw here today, with shadowing, surges, etc.. Anyone trying to carry WR pace over the final miles is extremely vulnerable to drafting and getting outkicked. It will be interesting to see if London '12 finally gives us the "Geb v. the world" marathon showdown.

This was a real frick'in race! Real men, real balls to walls stuff dude!!! That had to be the best marathon finish I've seen in years! Amazing!! Sammy is incredible!

TheJerk wrote:

Red Fox wrote:

Interesting that you should say this; I can't help wonder what might have been every time that Sammy pops a great marathon race. The guy ran a 26:41 10000m as a junior! I know that many so called African juniors are not really juniors at all (as pointed out by Renato Canova himself), but 26:41 is impressive at any age. Any one else ever wonder what Sammy might have been able/might be able to do on the track?

I actually dont think its too late. He is still young and its amazing to think what he could accomplish on the track with a season dedicated to to specific 5/10k training.

The 10 000m is an almost non existing race distance these days. That´s why many long distance runners move directly up to the marathon and that is why we have seen such a huge drop in marathon times the last few years. People don´t wait until they are past their prime before they move up in distance.

vdawg wrote:

agip wrote:

I would bet that is exactly what Wanjiru was doing

i think that's what he intimated in the post race interview if I understood him properly!

Certainly Not Skuj wrote:The 10000m is his main and favorite event, he has said this, and it just shows that that event is lacking in good runners that he hold both. Ideally, runners would be specialists and each WR would be by a different runner. Coe was an 800m specialist and the fact he had the 1500m WR just showed a lack in that event, as 3:33 was much weaker than 1:41. That got taken care of soon after.

agree

i estimate that the 26'17.75wr is worth nearer 12'32 & kennster is a much better 10k runner than a 5k one & someone else really shoud hold the 5k wr

the problem is that the make-up of the required to run 12'32 woud mandate a guy who has both simultaneous potential 1500/10k wr ability !?

i don't see how it can be done at present - you'd need an aouita type ( ~ 3'28/low-27 at his best ) but several levels better

SW was toying with him

the epic battle was only apparent

Beijing was far more impressive. He ran an Olympic record all alone in the heat.

He really gutted it out today and that's badass, but Beijing was an all-time performance against an Olympics field.

The Waterboy wrote:

Well he's planning for the WR in Dubai,

Stupid idea. It may not be hot in Dubai in January but it's still too warm. I think during Gebs tries it was around 68F. To stay below 2:04, everything need to come together and that's not going to happen in Dubai. I believe even Geb knew that but it was still a great payday so he said he'd try.

Refering to some comments before about Wanjiru not running on track and only as a Junior I know from an interview I did with him last year, that he developed severe achilles tendon problems while training and competing in spikes. That is one reason why he quickly exited the track and started running on the streets. Another is surely the fact which mentioned also his manager Rosa that nowadays for distance runners paydays are not as abundant as before. It is an open secret that the big money can be earned on the street. That is a reason why more and more young runners barely make a career on the track before racing on streets. It is definetely a huge difference if a young Kenyan or Ethiopian athlete can earn 20000 dollars in a "mediocre" race in Dublin or competing with tough contenders running 13 minutes for 5k on hte track and receiving just 250 dollars.

Yesterdays race was for me an awesome show of will, of never giving up even if it looked several times Kebede had won. Kebede made twice the tactical mistake to immediately counter attack the half hearted attempts of Wanjiru to take the lead. Even so Wanjiru was most of the time running behind Kebede, mentally he was definetely always a step ahead of him.

Kebede showed nowhere near the patience a real champion needs to show in order to win such a race. Gebreselassie would have never taken the lead like that all the times. To me it looked several times as if Kebede was afraid to let Wanjiru lead even for a moment. Why didn´t he stay behind the Kenyan for a while, gather his strength and then launch the final attack.

Talking about Geb, I do believe he will not win in New York. There are no pacemakers, there it goes man against man, there it will be pure racing and he has never won a Marathon while he had to race against strong competition. In London he several times failed miserably.