Sub 1.41 - how can it be done...

I have followed middle and long distance running more than

30 years and learned to believe only to my own eyes and

stopwatch. These IAAF books publish so much rubbish about

split times.

VentoIin^3 wrote:

Given my epic prowess at predicting athletic performance, my own multiple Olympic bids, my fail-safe performance caculator which I call NEOS, I predict Rudy will be the first human to break 1:40.

Rudy and Kaki are close but I've seen nothing from them to suggest that have the natural speed to perform this task.

o.O wrote:

VentoIin^3 wrote:

Given my epic prowess at predicting athletic performance, my own multiple Olympic bids, my fail-safe performance caculator which I call NEOS, I predict Rudy will be the first human to break 1:40.

Rudy and Kaki are close but I've seen nothing from them to suggest that have the natural speed to perform this task.

I actually think that was a troll comment from a Ventolin impersonator (yuk, shudder to think.....!)

I still don't think either Rudisha or Kaki are as well equipped as Kipketer or Coe.

Both of them should have gone under 1:41, but think sub 1:40 was perhaps beyond them. With that in mind I certainly don't see the current 2 getting near it.

I still think knowledge about how to train for the 800 is less devloped than for other distances. When we have guys that can run 44.x for a quarter, it's silly to think that two 49.9s is impossible (of course it would probably be positive split, but you get the point).

I think it's gonna be a guy that can run 45 flat and just has a weird ability to move up well (obea moore type).

the800 wrote:

I still think knowledge about how to train for the 800 is less devloped than for other distances. When we have guys that can run 44.x for a quarter, it's silly to think that two 49.9s is impossible (of course it would probably be positive split, but you get the point).

I think it's gonna be a guy that can run 45 flat and just has a weird ability to move up well (obea moore type).

But then Kipketer, Coe and Rudisha were/are all capable of running close to 45 flat when at their peaks.

Rudisha - 45.5 open earlier this season

Kipketer - 45.4 relay a week prior to his 1:41.7 (worth around 46.0 open and he would doubtless have been faster still at 400 when he got down to 1:41.1 later in season)

Coe - 45.5 relay week prior to his 1:41.7 ( this was when he kicked himself when taking the baton and starting from a standing start)

What's the WL so far this year? 44.5!? So we've got/had 3 individuals capable of within about a second of the best 400m runners at the time.

If you take Coe, he was also the Mile WR holder at the time.

I think the 800m WR is one of the best in the book and the dream of sub 1:40 is still decades away. That's unless a new drug comes along which manages to stay undetected and helps both aerobic and anaerobic capacity equally.

We're basically looking for someone who can run 45.0 at least (and how many of them are currently running 400m?) and be able to run sub 3:30 for 1500m simultaneously. That sort of athlete is v. hard to find.

grand slam wrote:I actually think that was a troll comment from a Ventolin impersonator (yuk, shudder to think.....!)

of course he was troll

ventolin^3

is genuine article

I still don't think either Rudisha or Kaki are as well equipped as Kipketer or Coe

rudy is already better equipped as he's already run faster & he didn't have good "tucking" behind a billy between 200 - 400 - worth upto 0.5s

Both of them should have gone under 1:41

err...

your coe fantasy is moronicking your brain

but think sub 1:40 was perhaps beyond them. With that in mind I certainly don't see the current 2 getting near it.

i expect rudy to run 1'41.0 if he has a "billy" wabbit tuck-in between 200 - 400 off his exact walloon run

who the hell is 1'39 ???

Acetracking wrote:

Borzakowski 1.42,47(51,0+51,5),Kipketer 1,42,77(Monaco,16.08.97) 52,0+50,8,last 200m 24,6

And what do both of those races have in common?

...neither of those times is the world record.

as to your interminable drivelling of value of 400 splits, it can be estimated from consideration of long relays

Relay Time = Sum of Current 400 ability - ( 3 * R )

where R = difference between open 'n' flying

use 3'00 or 180 & all 4 guys having equal open ability of X :

180 = 4X - 3R

try X between 46.00 - 45.25

46.00 ->R ~ 1.33

45.75 ->R ~ 1.00

45.50 ->R ~ 0.67

45.25 ->R ~ 0.34

considering wabbiting which provides 3 laps of upto 1s/lap drafting, i'd consider the answer to lie in the :

0.67 - 1.00 range with an extremely heavy bias to 1.00 end

working number is

~ 0.9s

I did not know Rudisha had run 45.5, but then again, that is still a little ways from 45.0 - plus the guy has run 1:41.5 (pretty close to the world record as it is). Give Rudisha a half second on his 400 and he's got sub 1:41.

I am curious as to what kind of work these guys do for pure legspeed.

It's not brain science. A simple 50-50 would do it.

It was an answer to Mr Ventolin, who speculated negative split 800m races.

ventolin^3 wrote:

rudy is already better equipped as he's already run faster & he didn't have good "tucking" behind a billy between 200 - 400 - worth upto 0.5s

Dick! You try to argue (unsuccessfully) that Lagat, a 1:46 runner, could have run 1:43, yet Coe's 1:41.7 was his absolute peak. Rubbish.

You're not willing to admit that his Florence run was worth 1:41.5.

Rudisha wasn't running on an inferior track from 30 years ago, and didn't have to run wide on the curve to get past the rabbit. Had Konchellah done his job properly and dropped out, not forcing Coe to run wide round him, then Coe's time would have been 1:41.5. If you can't accept that then it's because your biased.

Rudisha had pacing up to 600m. Coe only had it to 400m. Coe may have had slightly more drafting fro 200 - 400 but then Rudisha had drafting from 400 - 500 (when athletes tend to slow down) and someone keeping pace for him for another 100m, up to 600m. That more than compensates for the help Coe had before the bell.

Rudisha has already improved by 0.5 from early June to early July, there's no reason to believe Coe would not have improved by the same amount had he bothered trying to run faster at a distance in which he was already 1.71 sec faster than anyone else in history. That would have brought him to 1:41.0.

A few attempts adjusting the first lap pace and someone helping him to 600m in under 1:15 and he goes sub 1:41. And that's in 81, irrespective of what he could have done in 82 & 83 if he hadn't been ill.

no

i always give coe at worst 1'41.5 for that run

on an unknown track with dodgy timing - that more than makes up for any supposed track improvements - learn to read iaaf guidance - NO track can have more than 65% energy return or it's illegal - tracks have not got quicker in decades because of iaaf parameters limiting their "speed" ( apart from tokyo which was illegal but iaaf too embarassed to pull those times & atlanta which was also illegal but they hushed up ) - any improvements in tracks is from the anecdotal observation they are less jarring on distance runners after a race, allowing them to recover quicker ( see geb's reasons for not running atlanta 5k, a race he couda jogged to the win in that shit field )

no

i give him quicker than 1'41.5 as he faded badly in last 200, his 400/600 splits were slightly too fast for him

moron

how many times do you have to be told

drafting works only if you are a coupla meters behind a guy directly in front of a guy in your lane

what part of rudy's race did he get that ???

slightly more ???

it was greatest drafting i've ever seen

drivel

see "coupla meters ahead in same lane" above

all rudy got was coupla guys haring off in front which may have him set him some "rhythm", but if you are chasing a wr you better have that rhythm already or you are a dead duck

on paper

i don't think he's any better now than oslo - that race was for the win over kaki, times came 2nd - & rudy ran far too fast in initial 200 to grab pole & attempt to dominate kaki & it was windy according to commentators

keep dreaming moron

he wasn't going to find any dodgy timing/tracks in "meat" of euro circuit

that florence run looked his absolute peak run of his career - i'd put no money on anything better later that year

keep dreaming

when was last 800 when wabbit has gone thru in 1'15 ???

dream on

cruz was 3y younger & also ran 1'41.7

what do you thunk he wouda run at 24y if he'd stayed healthy ???

1'40.5 ??

1'40.0 ???

Usual repetitive drivel. LOL.

The Florence track would have been certified by the IAAF and re-measured many times after. No way it was dodgy.

Anyone with a stop watch can time the race for themselves and you get 1:41.5 every time. So regardless of using Photo cell (not Coe's fault), the time is accurate.

Mondo tracks are faster than those of the late 70's. As Eldrik on T&FN you've alluded to it yourself. Many other posters mention it in passing on various threads, and neither you nor anyone else picks up on it then.

The 3rd 200m is always the crucial one in trying to run a fast time/break a WR. Rudisha had his training partner in front of him to 500m and alongside him to 600m That is a benefit which doesn't require one of your equations to prove it as such; just a bit of realistic common sense is needed, which you continuously seem to lack. Don't you think Rudisha, Tangui and coach would have sat down before and determined what they wanted from Tangui? Idiot. He would have had instructions to take him to 400m in 49.0 (which he was a llittle out on, Tangui going through in 49.3, Rudisha 49.7) and then take him as far as possible thereafter. I'm sure Rudisha had his reason for staying 0.4 behind at 400m. I'm sure he doesn't need a memo from you telling him he must be right behind his team mate!

Coe ran wide on curve (fact) and then had no one within 20m. If Konchellah drops out at bell, he gets 1:41.5 in early June. NO runner aims to peak at this time of the season, Coe himself said that he hadn't really started with the speed work.

His solo 3:31 a month later was worth 3:26/27 with drafting to bell and even pacing, according to your oft-used equations. That's as good if not better than his Florence run.

On another thread you ramble on about how your fellow Kenyans, Ereng & Konchellah would have run 1:42 low or faster "had they bothered" later in a season based on a single run in a single season. You can't give them seconds leeway for a performance in August, then state someone else couldn't have run tenths faster with a greater time frame! Your biased towards other Kenyan athletes is overwhelming.

Kipketer had a rabbit drafting to 550m in his 1:41.1 & Rudisha had Tangui drafting him to 500m & alongside him up to the 600m mark. Cruz had Giessing and Robinson drafting him up to 600m. Coe had help to 400m then ran wide and was on his own.

Both Kipketer and Cruz ran their pb's in late August. They both had several attacks on the record and you have mentioned they could have gone faster.

Rudisha runs in early July after at least 2 earlier attempts at the record.

Doha May 14th - 24.2, 49.9 (don't tell me he wasn't going for a fast one there?) , 1:16.4 (27.6 last 200m)

Oslo June 4th - 23.7, 49.5, 1:15.05 (27.0 last 200m)

Heusden July 9th - 24.0, 49.7, 1:14.4! (27.1 last 200m)

Don't give me the bullshit that Oslo went out too fast. Rudisha was only 0.3 sec faster at 200m than Heusden . He's had 3 good stabs at running 1:41 and got quicker as the season has progressed.

Coe runs 1:41.7 in early June, and thats his absolute fastest possible run ever! Your uneducated assumption that Coe would not have got faster as the season progressed is laughable.

He didn't run any other fast 800's later in the season, yet broke 3 other WR's. His other important races over 800 that year were tactical affairs winning the European and World Cup. In the former he ran a last 100m in 11.3 in a 1:47 and in the latter a 12.0 in a 1:46. By then he'd have done more speed work. He was in better form by late August, as (barring injury) almost every athlete would be every season.

Cruz wasn't injured in 85 at 22 and ran no quicker. In fact his best was 1:42.49, slower than Coe's 1:42.33 that he ran at 22. So, it doesn't always mean that you will get faster after 21. There have been loads of 21 year old Kenyans (if that is their real age) over the years who have not got any faster and disappeared without trace.

moron

pathetic drivel posted as usual

a track no one had ever heard of before

iaaf don't waste their times certifying local meet tracks for free - the florence owners have to submit a substantial fee along with the paperwork to get it certified prior to inception - i doubt very much they did for a track used for nothing more than regional races before

from that crappy dvd you claim is "top quality" ??

don't make me laugh - the crappy pictures, no official clocking running in the corner, no proper markings for 300m/200m/100m observable & you can't even make out a proper finish line !

claiming any sort of accuracy within less than 0.5s for a hand-time from a vid for that is utter nonsense

i have no idea what nonsense you are talking about

iaaf have placed limit on energy return of tracks for years ( are you so stoopid you can't read ??? ) :

4. Force reduction

35% to 50% between 10°C and 40°C

35±1% to 50±1% between 10°C and 40°C at min 12 locations

you cannot improve speed of track if you limit force reduction - learn some physics idiot

i do not require an idiot stating the obvious

learn to read moron

2m behind wabbit who is directly ahead - none of this happened in rudy's race no matter the pre-race plan

they may not plan to but you are an idiot if you don't realise that many do have mid-year peak & don't improve after - none of his later runs over 1500/mile were as good as florence, including his stockholm run

if you believe that, you are a complete f***ing moron

no one runs 1'41+ without all the speedwork in place

nope

i make that low-3'27 at best with a lot of generousity - it's not as good as a 1'41

learn to read moron

i said nothing about "later season"

i said if they had run on the circuit in that form, no date specified - whether it be may or september

that's not 600m

how many times do you have to be told idiot ???

4m+ behind & then wabbit out in lane 2 when you get to within 2m offer NO drafting

& watch the vid moron. the wabbit is out towards lane 3 & long gone from race by 1'09 - NO "alongside him upto 600m"

eh ?

that's not how i remember the race

there was only cruz at 600m with sammy a few meters back

kip had to peak for '97 wc & he ran his wr off whatever peak he held onto there - no knowing he fast he couda been if he'd only ran on circuit that year & not aiming for a gold

as for cruz, i was shocked he even bothered with racing after his gold which was such an unbelievable performance in unimagineably oppressive conditions - i doubt he wouda had anything left for rest of year & wouda probably packed up his season there & then - how he had the energy to run a 1'41.7 after that is arguably one of the greatest feats ever seen in middle distance

temperatures in the '90s & no interest in getting heatstroke, a very expected run

complete moron

do you know nothing at all about this sport ???

he put in virtually all that fast 200 in the 125 - 200m point to grab pole from kaki - the oxygen debt he'd incurred doing this already wouda severely dampen his overall race time

read above moron

& he's quoted in kenya daily as describing the belgium run as "nothing special" indicating it's nothing better than he's run before in terms of ease

moron

learn something about the sport

it is a given no one automatically runs faster later in season - none of coe's runs later in '81 were as good as his 800

now idiot, kaki ran 1'42.2 in june, 6/7 earlier in month than coe

where has kaki come even close to this & we are nearly 6/52 on

hear it now - kaki won't run any faster than oslo & he'll have 3 or 4 more goes at 800

nonsense

trying to compare splits in 1'46/1'47 races to a 1'41.7 is utter drivel

& if he was in 1'41 shape later in season he couda blown away the rest of the world's weak guys in a solo 1'43 ( like kip indoors ) where as others coud hardly break 1'45, which wouda been evidence he was close to 1'41 shape

where was it ???

eh ?

do some research idiot

he's said in interviews that his training for '85 had gone not as well as '84 with some minor problems - good enough to run close to 100% but not absolute 100%

& learn to apply this to your coe nonsense of '82/'83 "if he hadn't got ill"

an illness which seems to be very much :

BLOOD TRANSFUSION INDUCED TOXOPLASMOSIS

if they got their medal & their money they go, they aren't interested in "legacies" - these aren't university educated guys - they have simple aims

What a prize Cock you are. LolThe main thrust of your ramblings is that not only was the Florence track short, but no one bothered to do the timing, and it was his own fault he got ill because he was blood doping!!You really have sunk to the lowest levels of depravity haven't you?Someone who was still running 1:43.3 at age 33 in 89 when there was random out of season testing is a doper. But all those Kenyan buddies of yours, that you know on a first name basis, and who competed in the late 90's when there was no test for EPO are as innocent as the driven snow? ROFL. Twat!Despite Lagat testing positive, Ngeny running a 3:43 at 20 after just 3 years running, then leaving the sport at 21 after a "car accident" and Kipketer contracting malaria (like you'd have thought he'd have the foresight to take preventative medication in Denmark before going) with symptoms reminiscent of EPO over dosing, THEY are all innocent so says Ventolin.But Coe was a dirty little doper. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black!IF Coe had been blood doping (and I don't believe it for a moment) then the blood extracted from him would have been the blood put back into him. He wouldn't have received anyone else's blood idiot, so his blood would have had the toxoplasmosis parasite in it already. It's contracted from animals.

No, from a mass produced dvd set that is on the market from the BBC, which is pristine clear and has the finish line clearly marked. Only a moron like yourself wouldn't be able to use a stop watch to time it.

And if the 200m mark isn't there, how do you know what his 200 and 600m splits were? You are obviously relying on what you've seen published in the IAAF book. So where did they get them from? You can't even see what a cretin you are, can you? How can you state that the final time is wrong, but then make assessments on what was his "best split run" based on splits given by the same people who'd have taken his final time. You either take all of them or disregard all. You can't cherry pick which ones help your moronic view of things and ignore the others.

Make your mind up! You've been ranting about his time not being legitimate, so why now state his 1:41 + ?

I'd rather believe what he said about his training at the time than a crackpot like you, thanks all the same.

Well then you obviously question the whole system you use for finding even paced potential from uneven splits that you've been peddling on here for months!?

I have Coe's 3:31.9 race in Stockholm on dvd. Even using the official splits of 52.4, 56.7 (1:49.1), 59.2 (2:48.3) & 43.6

and using: - 1500*(1500/211.9)^ = 532074.12, (A) and then divide this by the sum of: -

400*(400/52.4)^ = 177928.73

+ 400*(400/56.7)^ = 140439.98

+ 400*(400/59.2)^ = 123388.54

+ 300*(300/43.6)^ = 97729.467

= 539486.71. (B)

We get 0.9862599. Multiply this by 211.9 and a time of 208.99 is arrived at.

= 3:28.99.

Coe received no drafting from 200m (at which point Robinson was 5m ahead of him). So Ventolin, as you so readily do with others, you need to take 2.5 (0.5 for every 200m not drafted for) secs off that, as most WR runs aren't drafted beyond 1200m . This gives 3:26.49.

If you break the race down this way: -

300m- 38.8

next 500m (13.6 up to 52.4 first lap + 56.7) - 70.3

next 400m - 59.2

next 200m (1200m - 1400m) 29.3

last 100m - 14.3.

And apply YOUR formula above to these, then you get 3:28.88 - 2.5 (no drafting)= 3:26.38.

If you want to compare this to Lagat's pb of 3:26.34, then of course you have to take another 0.5 secs from Coe's time as Lagat had perfect drafting from

EL G in that Brussells race up to the last 100m.

Which of course means we get 3:25.88 had Coe had drafting up to 1400m also.

So you're talking BS when you say it was worth "low-3'27 at best with a lot of generousity". I think a 3:26 low is better than a 1:41.5.

I am purely relying on all the methods that YOU have used yourself to work out the potential of numerous other (mainly Kenyan) runners on these boards.

So, by all means rubbish the stats above, but by doing so you are also rubbishing practically everything you've typed on here in the past months.

Why would he need to run a solo 1:43 in the European and World cup victories? His finishing kick was far superior to anyone else over that distance.

He only needed to toy with the field and then open a 10m gap in the last 100m. The only point in solo running a 1:43 would be if he felt that was his best way of winning.

Coe had a lot more international meets where he had to run for England or the UK than athletes in Kipketer's era had to. Do you have any inkling how the European circuit was governed by Andy Norman at the time? British athletes had to run a certain number of international races in order to run for themselves on the circuit, which itself was much smaller and had fewer opportunities to run fast times.

Your brain is clearly not analytical enough to derive form of an athlete from what they run the last 100 or 200m in slower races!

If we take Rudisha last year, and analyse 2 of his races leading up to Rieti, there was little indication he was going to pop out a 1:42.0 a few races later.

At the end of June he ran 1:44.1 in Ostrava, winning by a stride from Ismail with a pretty slow 27.0 last 200 and 13.4 last 100m.

By the end of August, a week before Rieti, he wins in Brussels by 0.5 over Yego, in a modest 1:45.8. Last 200m in 26.5, last 100m in 13.0.

Certainly nothing compared to what he did in Rieti, where he was able to run a faster last 200m of 26.3, off a much faster pace!

Had he been injured after Brussels and not run Rieti, then it would be hard for anyone to claim Rudisha was in 1:42.0 form last year.

The point I'm making is that if 26.5/13.0 in a 1:45.8 is indicative of a subsequent 1:42.0, then I think we can safely say Coe's 24.8/12.0 in a 1:46.1

showed he was in as equally as good a shape at the tail end of '81.

Moreover you have already mentioned on another thread here tonight how the manner of Ereng's and Konchellah's win at the major champs was testimony to their being in 1:42 (or whatever you were wittering on about) shape in a drafted paced race. The World Cup race in 81 was the most important one of the year.

You can judge faster times for athletes from slower "big" wins, but no one else can! Again, you highlight not only your complete arrogance that you are always right and everyone else is wrong, but also the double standards you adopt in trying to justify your stance and dismiss others.

If I'm to believe most of the "experts" on Letsrun, then of course it will be broken by Andrew Wheating

questionable distance

non-existent timing - where was clock on tv ???

blood-doping thruout - toxoplasmosis caught him out ( i'm surprised i didn't see it before )

eh ?

just crushing drivellers

moron

random testing came out in '89 on worldwide basis

he quit immediately

moron

find the listed offence

mega talent

read the bio for 10th time moron - he coudn't do speedwork anymore & his ~ 3'32s were based off just endurance only

moron

malaria prophylaxis offers no fool-proof guarantee - learn some medicine

there has been increasing mefloquine resistance for over a decade - it's the best prophylactic out there & i doubt it gives better than about 70 - 80% protection nowdays for a coupla week trip

WHAT THE F*** ARE YOU DRIVELLING ???

yup

now makes perfect sense

it's virtually unheard of to get toxo of usual cat shit contact - you need huge imbibement to do it to affect catastrophic effect - that means blood transfusion

moron

they only do auto-transfusions now

back in those days, they didn't F*** about auto-transfusing, they just went to a private clinic in euro & got transfusion from the bloodbank - & screening blood for diseases only consisted of hepatitis in those days, no one gave a shit too much about protozoas

idiot

look up the reason for vaiino's +ve steroid test

i'm certain now coe got his infection thru blood doping

bullshit

it's been years & we still haven't seen this "prisitine" vid anytube

moron

i based them on splits i saw in t&f news

they'd have a guy at 200/400/600 distances as best they coud find on a featureless track for the wr holder

because if i'm not wasting time on writing

"alleged 1'41.73 time"

each/every time

you are a complete F***ing idiot

aren't you the moron drivelling on about his earlier stumbling relay split ???

are we to believe he shouda really been a mid/high 44 guy in '81 & world number 1 at that event ???

very impressive calculations !

but i woud add, "purist" expects wabbit to drop down at the bell, so 0.25s added on to any final time

but remember

you have to even out bernie's run for uneven splits as well as drafting upto 1400

nope

on iaaf tables they maybe close, but 1'41.99 tops 3'26.99 any day of the week - lesser talent drifts down from 800 all the way to 10k

because even the most stoopid moron can understand blasting a 2 lap race solo from gun to tape as unquestioned testimony to brilliance

coe was facing 1'45 rubbish

a 1'43 solo is not much to ask is it from a "1'41" guy ???

err...

no offence moron

but it is drivel

nope

nor was there of coe of 1'43.9 running early 1'42.4 next year

err...

moron

the only analytical point we can "safely" make is that drawing conclusions from last 100/200 splits in slow 800s is nonsense

you asymptote down to your basic flying 100/200 speed, which for quick guy may be

as slow as 11.5 or 22 in a 1'46

( you have the calculation method above to work it out - just base it off 2s slower laps )

err...

they were after their 1st title & were out for win anyway they coud

coe had wr & shitty field

why no 1'43 solo blast ???

err...

no

just drivelers...

Ventolin sounds like a spoilt kid who likes to name call when he knows he's wrong.

I'm sure most people don't want to have to read what comes out of his twisted little mind. Absolute fantasist.