So we all know how close this current crop of top 800m studs are to that magical 1.41.00 barrier - specifically Rudisha but lets also not totally write off Mr Kaki as he is still a very young 21 year old.
Even though some of us would like to think its a forgone conclusion that 1.40.xx is on the cards, it is still going to be immensely difficult to achieve.
Just looking at Rudishas race from Heusden, his splits there and those of Kipketers best races it's coming clear the type of fine pace judgement that is going to be needed.
The most interesting aspect becoming clear is just how careful the first 200m and second 400m must be run in order to achieve this perfect time.
In Kipketers first WR his 200m and 400m times were ballistic (in the range of 23.5, 48.6) and even though he was still able to finish in 52.6 for 1.41.2 (24) he was able to best this time 10 days later going through substantially slower at 200 and 400m (24.0, 49.4).
Interestingly Rudishas split times from Heusden were approximately 24.3, 49.6 and 1.14.4. He also takes the first 100m notably relaxed (not being too keen to be right on Tanguis hammer) - very similar to Kipketers splits from Koeln.
Even though Rudisha and Kipketer are different athletes (obviously) it is becoming clear that the splits for low 1.41 performances from these guys will be very similar. This level of running is obviously close to the current limit of human limits in the 800m.
Taking this into account, this is what I suggest will be the types of split times Rudisha (or Kaki) will have to hit in order to physically be able to break 1.41. The 200m split for the range is in brackets given the slowest possible time at the preceding interval split and the slowest time I feel is required to still achieve the ultimate goal of sub 1min41.00
200m - 24.0 - 24.3 (24.3)
400m - 49.0 - 49.3 (25.0)
600m - 1.14.0 - 1.14.3 (25.0)
800m < 1.41.00 (25.6)
I just feel any slower than these splits and the time lost becomes very difficult to make up. Any faster and it compromises the sort of power running and finishing ability that is still needed to run under 1min 41 seconds.