malmo wrote:
jkjoregon wrote:It was quite clear if you were actually at the meet that he dropped out because it was PLANNED. He looked quite pleased with his effort and he looked good!
A 9:35 steeplechaser running 2000m, 'PLANNED', as you say, at 9:05 pace, then extrapolating it to a magic 8:50, or even 8:40, is akin to a 4:00 1500 runner running 2:32 for 1000m (3:48 pace), dropping out, then projecting his time to 3:42.
The dots don't connect.
Not exactly malmo and you know a little better than that. With the steeple hurdle form and water pit form are good indicators of how someone is doing later in the race. You can see a pretty obvious change in form over the barriers and water jump in a steeple. The athlete can still be on pace when the form goes, but you know the splits are going to slow soon. You know what I'm talking about, exaggerating the water jump only to land shorter in the water and struggle out of the pit, a short hurdle follow by a couple quick steps to get back on the pace/pace. Those are obvious signs and AJ was nowhere near that point past 2K. AJ was at about 6:10 with less than 1K to go (at the 200 meter start where he pulled out). Not sure exactly how much distance is left with that inside water pit but I believe those are about 380-385 meter laps but the point is he was on 9:00 pace and he had plenty of running left in his legs.
That alone is a pretty big improvement from his last steeple.
I think there is a couple different arguments here.
One is that AJ is being squeezed into the steeple simply for point scoring reasons by the coaches. How do we know that AJ is not seeking this out? They guy undoubtedly gets run into the track by Centro and Wheating on 1500 meter work and he's probably confident that if he can ever stay with them up to 1200-1300 meters it's a lost cause anyway. Add to that what Mac Fleet is capable of (beat him at indoor NCAA's, ran a faster mile indoors than AJ ever has, was the man of the meet at Penn despite AJ's strong showing. So if you show up to a time trial with your own team and PR and still wind up 4th 3 out of 5 times isn't that trying to shove a round peg through a square hole?
What is 3:39 going to get AJ at the collegiate or national level that at an 8:45 wont? The fact is, if he can run under 8:50 and has a better kick than most of the steeplers at NCAA's he has a better chance to score big points than in the 1500. He has 3 guys from his own team who can keep him out of the final. Granted on a dream day he may get a medal, he could also PR and get 7th or 8th.
In the steeple, if AJ can stay in the hunt up to 2 laps to go anything can happen. It seems like about half of the guys in the steeple who run in the 8:40's during the season can't break 9:00 by NCAA's on the regular. This is going to be Eugene, in front of his home crowd. IF AJ is in position to score in the top 5 in the steeple over the last 1K he's going to hear a lot of noise, crazy noise, and it will be for him. Rather than be one of the guys in the 1500 (hopefully) and not responsible for any big points AJ can be THE MAN for Oregon in the steeple. Perhaps that's what he's thinking. Can't blame him.
What's wrong with having him go for it at Pac-10's and see how he ends up? If he's in it to win it we have our answer. If he's a distant 5th, you stick with the 1500.