Not Another Stock Market Thread

Flagpole wrote:

Sagarin was never positive during this last run-up. It's significant too.

First of all, I seem to remember providing a link from Liz Ann Sonders SPECIFICALLY for you about all of the cash on the sideline and negative sentiment, and that "this is the stuff bear-market bottoms are made of," though I was and still am skeptical about the longer-term nature of it. Secondly, I told you ad nauseum that I was trading GS and watching it as a barometer of the broader mkt. Go search if you need to. And lastly, to the extent that I've been cautious on the rally, my time frame has never been for the "next three months." And you DAMN well know it. I am not a financial planner Flagpole. Neither are you. I'm not going to tell people to put money here or there not knowing investment time frame, risk tolerance, investable asstes, etc (remember Jim Cramer telling people to bail under Dow 8000?). I can only provide some tools.

It is still "possible" that you will end up being right for the wrong reasons and that this time will be "different" in reference to its possible predecessors. But, I doubt it. Now, please stop making this thread about you and I. I beg you.

Sagarin wrote:

You're one of those guys who is sometimes right for the wrong reasons, and it gives you false confidence. You know enough to be dangerous.

What a bunch of BS. That's what someone says when they don't have the ammunition to try to form a better counter argument.

Flagpole wrote:

Sagarin wrote:

Flagpole's still pissed off that I won his March Madness thread this year, though he never acknowledged it and I never touted it until now :)

Brother, I'm no basketball expert, so I'm fine with the March Madness thing. Honestly I care very little about it other than I like watching it a lot, so I didn't mean to not give you props where due. I didn't even remember that you had won. Congrats.

One more thing Flagpole in regards to the above. Remember your comment the other day on another thread about the "little smiley face" at the of a sentence and it's meaning? And how you didn't understand my sarcasm and somehow being in on the joke? I guess you learned nothing from that little exchange. Either that or you're revealing your disingenuous nature. I wasn't patting myself on the back. If I felt the need to do that, I would've done it in April.

Sagarin wrote:

Now, please stop making this thread about you and I.

1) It's "Now, please stop making this thread about you and ME."

2) Not making it about you and me brother. Just disagreeing with one dude who thinks you are right (about what I still have no idea). And any time you say I don't know what I'm talking about with regard to investing and the economy, brother, seriously, get a grip...I'll tell you you're full of crap. Because if you really believe that, you are. My financial position based on my salary and my portfolio tell me otherwise.

Wow is it college football season already?

&man wrote:

Wow is it college football season already?

Well, not quite, because we haven't yet seen Sagarin's unadulterated love for USC while maintaining he's a Big 12 fan. It's coming though...that and lots of "strength of schedule" talk. Not saying it's bad...only that it IS.

The saying that a broken clock is right twice a day is an apt description of Flagpole's market knowledge/investing abilities.

Sagarin wrote:You scare me. You're one of those guys who is sometimes right for the wrong reasons, and it gives you false confidence. You know enough to be dangerous. Now, somebody else please contribute something constructive.

&man wrote:

Wow is it college football season already?

I hope so, beacuse Flagpole's generally wrong. He's like Obama predicting NASCAR. He'll tell you he picked the winner of the Super Bowl and March Madness (who didn't by the way?) but exclude those glaring little details of only having had two in the elite eight and one in the final four. Just a metaphor -- that's all.

BTW, don't ever forget the truisms of college football:

1.) Bet the spread against OU in any BCS game

2.) Take USC with the spread over whatever Pac-10 opponent they draw in the Rose Bowl.

3.) Bet heavily against OSU in the BCS championship (with the exception of one referee-assisted fluke), especially if they face the SEC. Only pick them if they play Notre Dame.

By the way, I never said Flagpole knows nothing about investing. if that's what he gleaned, then that's a reading comprehension issue (grammatical corrector and English major aside).

AW Fan wrote:

The saying that a broken clock is right twice a day is an apt description of Flagpole's market knowledge/investing abilities.

Ha! Hilarity!

Flagpole wrote:

&man wrote:

Wow is it college football season already?

Well, not quite, because we haven't yet seen Sagarin's unadulterated love for USC while maintaining he's a Big 12 fan. It's coming though...that and lots of "strength of schedule" talk. Not saying it's bad...only that it IS.

1.) I don't think USC will "be there" this year. Yes, they always reload, but all of their "hard" games are on the road and they play in a conference that, despite its critics, had the best bowl performance last year.

2.) OU has three very difficult games in their last four, two on the road. I don't think they survive them all, as good as they'll be.

3.) That leaves Florida and Texas. Florida will get lazy and drop one somewhere along the way, but it won't hurt them unless it's the SEC championship. Haven't yet reviewed Texas' situation or schedule, but they are the next obvious pick, EVEN IF they drop the Red River game.

4.) Ok. St. and Ole Miss could surprise some folks and disrupt this whole picture, opening it up for the Big 10 and the Big East. That would suck.

5.) If USC and OU WEATHER their raod schedules, they will be battle hardened enough to be legit contenders. The converse is true of Florida if they find and treat conference play softer than usual.

Now, back on topic.

Correction, but you all knew what I meant:

1.) Bet the spread against OU in any BCS game

2.) Take USC with the spread over whatever *Big Ten* opponent they draw in the Rose Bowl.

3.) Bet heavily against OSU in the BCS championship (with the exception of one referee-assisted fluke), especially if they face the SEC. Only pick them if they play Notre Dame.

Oh, and if you actually knew where I went to undergrad, you find this "love affair" with USC ridiculous, bordering on laughable and impossible. I, correctly, give USC their due when it's earned. That's all. But the you and "I" debate never gets old.

Carnivore 69 -- PLEASE get this back on a constructive track.

sagarin and flagpole need to RACE! and settle this dispute once and for all!

Its funny 'cuz its true.

Flagpole wrote:

AW Fan wrote:

The saying that a broken clock is right twice a day is an apt description of Flagpole's market knowledge/investing abilities.

Ha! Hilarity!

10krunner wrote:

sagarin and flagpole need to RACE! and settle this dispute once and for all!

He'd beat me now, but I have faster PRs than him.

:)

Im not sure why "prescient" was taken to mean Sagarin specifically, although based on some of his posts Ive seen over the last couple years he falls into this category, imo. As far as forecasting the future, the bar is set reaaally low (see prognostications/ statements over the last few years from people like Bernanke, Paulson, Krugman many financial/economic "experts" etc.., they are downright painful to rewatch, some are stupid - most are outright liars), hence maybe my loose definition of "prescient".

FWIW, I was thinking of guys like Denninger, Ritholtz, Shedlock.

As for my opinion, Ive had roughly the same thesis since jan/feb. We trade in a NOMINAL range of 6-10k Dow over the next few years(3?). While in REAL terms there is a steady divergence and a slow grind down. I would admit now though I have less conviction in my thesis. The lifting of any kind of real accounting/regulation (mark to market)for the banks was a game changer. I think the Goldman boys basically said to Obama, you give us the keys to the kingdom, We can take the market up. Just dont pester us or worry how creative we get in creating leverage.

If you are still long this rally and think you are "investing", you are in over your head. It is the most psychotic, cracked-out freakshow casino mankind has ever seen.

As for the dollar cost average crew. Your thesis is based on a small sample size, a short relative time frame. Not sure how even the most amateur student of history cant see this? For the most recent example, pull up a 20 year chart of the nikkei.

Ive gotta run ... try to check in later.

-Blue

10krunner wrote:

sagarin and flagpole need to RACE! and settle this dispute once and for all!

If there's one thing I would NEVER do is race someone or fight someone for show of superiority. The racing thing is geekdom at its highest, and the fighting thing is meatheadedness at its highest, and I am neither a geek nor a meathead.

Besides, Sagarin is a decent enough guy and even makes some good points on occasion. He's just wrong when he says I don't know anything about investing (or "know enough to be dangerous"; that's complete BS).

So, I expected another stock market thread and what do I get? These two idiots and their meaningless banter. It's amazing. Really, amazing.

Thanks for nothing. Now, get back to work.

This is a great post. Take out anything affixed to my name, and it's a great post.