RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

To the original op, no

ummmm wrote:

To the original op, no

When was the last time we saw Rupp pressed to the limit to win a race of 5k or 10k? in think that it has been quite some time. My conclusion is that it is very difficult to tell just what he is capable of at this point. Obviously far more than any other American or NCAA competitor competing with him. But how much more? Who can tell.

So, in answer to the original question I think that none of us other than Rupp and AlSal really have any idea. I'm interested to find out at Worlds and I'm hoping (with my American bias) that he'll surprise many of us on the up side.

Hello People wrote:

Don't blow things out of proportion, no one is predicting sub 27 yet.

You don't read the boards much. I've seen multiple people predict that he will break 27 this year. I'm not a fan of, but do respect, Rupp. I hate people that have these unrealistic expectations, though.

"When was the last time we saw Rupp pressed to the limit to win a race of 5k or 10k?"

Doesn't mean anything. I just don't think he will (at least not this year). He still doesn't have enough experience racing against those guys. 2007 and 2008 wc's and olympic games is not enough. You can't race against those guys only twice or three times in two years and expect to grab a medal. Give him time and I don't think him and alsal are dying for a medal right now anyway. He said in an interview, he just hopes to do better than he did at the 08 olympic games (time wise or place wise) and to stick his nose in the thick of things. Any way its just my opinion.

ummmm wrote:

"When was the last time we saw Rupp pressed to the limit to win a race of 5k or 10k?"

Doesn't mean anything. I just don't think he will (at least not this year). He still doesn't have enough experience racing against those guys. 2007 and 2008 wc's and olympic games is not enough. You can't race against those guys only twice or three times in two years and expect to grab a medal. Give him time and I don't think him and alsal are dying for a medal right now anyway. He said in an interview, he just hopes to do better than he did at the 08 olympic games (time wise or place wise) and to stick his nose in the thick of things. Any way its just my opinion.

Not disagreeing. Seems pretty realistic. I'm just excited to see what he can do against some real (perhaps beyond real) competition.

Billy the Kid wrote:

My conclusion is that it is very difficult to tell just what he is capable of at this point. Obviously far more than any other American or NCAA competitor competing with him. But how much more?

Rupp will not be the best placing distance runner at worlds. Not even the second. Probably third or fourth. To say he is far better than any American is just dumb Billy.

Has this cat signed with Nike or what? Someone keeping the lid on tight?

Billy is dumb wrote:

Billy the Kid wrote:

My conclusion is that it is very difficult to tell just what he is capable of at this point. Obviously far more than any other American or NCAA competitor competing with him. But how much more?

Rupp will not be the best placing distance runner at worlds. Not even the second. Probably third or fourth. To say he is far better than any American is just dumb Billy.

Let's assume for a moment that you have at least a non-zero level of intelligence. Then it follows that it might be worthwhile to point out the following:

1) My comments on Rupp in above posts say that he really hasn't been pressed in the 5k or 10k in some time. Therefore it is difficult to know what his current capabilities are. Surely one with non-zero intelligence would have a hard time denying this.

2) I further posit that he is capable of "far more than any other American or NCAA competing with him". Perhaps you had a hard time connecting this to my previous comment about him not being pressed in some time. But to point out the obvious, I was referring to those who have been competing with him over the past ten months or so. Given the results it would be difficult again for a non-zero intelligence to disagree.

3) Note that all of this says nothing about folks like Lagat, Tegs, Solinsky. I do not recall them competing with Rupp recently.

4) I never claimed that he will be the best placing American distance runner at Worlds. Certainly Lagat et al have a very good chance at this honor. Indeed I would suggest that Lagat even has a good chance at medalling (though this is hardly a given), something that I would not say of Rupp. And this does not even touch on the American women in the distance events who also have some chance at the medal stand.

5) Even though I did not posit that Rupp would be the highest placing American or make any prediction at all I will make one here. Rupp will indeed be the highest placing American male in the 10k. Will he medal? Probably not. But it remains difficult to gauge his ability for reasons already stated.

6) I wish Rupp and the rest of the Americans good luck.

7) And for you sir, I hope that sometime prior to your 50th birthday your IQ will exceed your age.

Billy the Kid wrote:

Let's assume for a moment that you have at least a non-zero level of intelligence. Then it follows that it might be worthwhile to point out the following:

1) My comments on Rupp in above posts say that he really hasn't been pressed in the 5k or 10k in some time. Therefore it is difficult to know what his current capabilities are. Surely one with non-zero intelligence would have a hard time denying this.

2) I further posit that he is capable of "far more than any other American or NCAA competing with him". Perhaps you had a hard time connecting this to my previous comment about him not being pressed in some time. But to point out the obvious, I was referring to those who have been competing with him over the past ten months or so. Given the results it would be difficult again for a non-zero intelligence to disagree.

3) Note that all of this says nothing about folks like Lagat, Tegs, Solinsky. I do not recall them competing with Rupp recently.

4) I never claimed that he will be the best placing American distance runner at Worlds. Certainly Lagat et al have a very good chance at this honor. Indeed I would suggest that Lagat even has a good chance at medalling (though this is hardly a given), something that I would not say of Rupp. And this does not even touch on the American women in the distance events who also have some chance at the medal stand.

5) Even though I did not posit that Rupp would be the highest placing American or make any prediction at all I will make one here. Rupp will indeed be the highest placing American male in the 10k. Will he medal? Probably not. But it remains difficult to gauge his ability for reasons already stated.

6) I wish Rupp and the rest of the Americans good luck.

7) And for you sir, I hope that sometime prior to your 50th birthday your IQ will exceed your age.[/quote]

I believe you are missing points 8 through 12 of your doctrine. Please post it immediately so I can properly dissect it.

As for now, if I was to follow your logic, then Rupp is not competing with anyone, because he is not currently running a race. I believe you are referring to runners he has competed against, not "competing with".

Or, if I was to excuse the poor grammer, perhaps by "competing with" you are referring to runners he will be competing with in the future? In which case, how can you possibly know who he will be competing with? Are you saying that as long Galen Rupp is running you are certain that there will never be another American that is more capable than he? How can you possibly know this?

Billy is dumb wrote:

I believe you are missing points 8 through 12 of your doctrine. Please post it immediately so I can properly dissect it.

As for now, if I was to follow your logic, then Rupp is not competing with anyone, because he is not currently running a race. I believe you are referring to runners he has competed against, not "competing with".

Or, if I was to excuse the poor grammer, perhaps by "competing with" you are referring to runners he will be competing with in the future? In which case, how can you possibly know who he will be competing with? Are you saying that as long Galen Rupp is running you are certain that there will never be another American that is more capable than he? How can you possibly know this?

0/10 IQ < or = 16. Age = ?

we'll see with 2 laps to go.

fifth place

About a week to go to see if all the talk about galen rupp's "speed" has paid off. I hope you guys are right.

why hasn't rupp raced yet?

Two more days. Aren't you excited?

many people from this thread need to be confessing their terrible predicting abilities

Agreed or maybe people should've of done what I said two pages ago which is to shut up and wait till the race unfolds. By 2011 wc's, they'll be back at it again. GUARANTEED.