Eric B. wrote:
A runner's fitness can fluctuate throughout the year and oftentimes that same runner can have a bad race even during the prime of fitness.
i certainly agree with the above, but i think a lot of americans don't get this. they think because an african runs 12:52 one summer in a perfect race in europe his is EVERY day a 12:52 guy. he may have run a 13:05, 12:55 and 13:01 surrounding that mark. however somehow americans label him has a "12:52" guy and then would contest that none of our guys can ever beat him. this is part of the idea that I am challenging. in championship races you don't know for sure how fit guys are unless they have really tested themselves at that distance shortly before or after that event, and most accurately at the same distance they race in the championship race, but how often does that happen? more importantly, no matter how fit they are coming into the race things happen on race day. if your off by 1% that makes a big difference in a field of several 12:55-13:05 guys especially if you need to close in near 2:30 for the last 1K. you can have a 12:55 PR and get beat by a guy with a 13:06 pr because the pace isn't all out and he's just doing better than you that day. and who knows maybe in a euro style rabbited race he'd PR that day and hit 13:02 and you'd be behind him. my point with all this is that we have guys who try to actually build cases why our americans can't compete with the top africans or have no shot at a medal when in fact if you can run near 13:00 or 27:10 and can close out in 2:30 in a slower race you have a very real shot. look at Teg in 2007!
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"Is it hard to believe that Rupp was in prime racing condition when he raced well against all these guys you bring up? And is it so hard to believe that a decent Ethiopian was just training through the indoor season? "
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again it's like your building a case of why an african narrowly beat an american. i don't think it's any more likely that daba was "just training" (meaning raw and not in shape)any more than rupp. at the very least he ran a 3K a 5K and another 5K following the Tyson invite and then came out winning carlsbad roughly the time Rupp had indoor NCAA's. it's pretty well known that outside of championship races rupp is on full training mode and he doesn't get sharp for in season races. they were likely around the same kind of fitness at that time. rupp was coming of an illness. daba had a 13:06 to his name before that race and now has a 13:02 early in the summer season. both he and rupp looked like they could have handled at least 13:12 that day but rupp wasn't taking the lead from daba and daba slowed it up several times. they were at 13:25 pace at 2-2.5K and cut it down.
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"I agree with you that Rupp is probably in shape to run 13:0X and low 27. But base it off HIS fitness and HIS performances not on the PBs of those he has raced."
ok, i agree with you to an extent on this. of course there is truth in this. i use it as just one factor, not the only factor.
it does follow some logic that if a guy is beating runners that have faster pr's than him and:
a) they race on a european racing circuit
b) he has not
then he MAY (not definitely of course) also be that fast of a runner. apply the fitness he's been showing (3:39 in a kickers race to close out 3rd race in 2 days, a 5K,10K,5K in 45 hours and closing them out with world class closing speed).
i guess the points i'm addressing:
1) rupp may be at the level to mix it up with the top africans in a championship race (much like Teg did in the 5K and barrios)
2) rupp is very likely NEAR 13:00 and 27:00 at this point
3) americans (especially the young ones) need to wash their head of the idea that there is an army of africans who can simply run 12:50 at will, do it every time they race
i'm not sure if the time will happen this summer for rupp, simply due to logistics and lack of opportunity, but that doesn't mean that he isn't there. there is a chance that he heads to europe early and gets in a tune up race or two before worlds but that could be anything from 1500-5K.
as a parting thought, it's not like rupp has run any more indoor 5Ks than any of the top runners yet here is where he stands on the all time world indoor list:
5000 Metres All Time
12:49.60 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) - Birmingham, GBR, 20/02/2004
Updated as at:27/02/2009 Mark Athlete Nation DOB Pos Venue Date
12:49.60 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13/06/1982 1 Birmingham, GBR 20/02/2004
12:50.38 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18/04/1973 1 Birmingham 14/02/1999
12:51.48 Daniel Komen KEN 17/05/1976 1 Stockholm 19/02/1998
12:59.04 Haile Gebrselassie 1 Stockholm 20/02/1997
13:06.72 Sileshi Sihine ETH 09/05/1983 1 Stockholm 02/02/2006
13:07.83 Abreham Cherkos ETH 23/09/1989 1 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009
13:09.37 Paul Kipsiele Koech KEN 10/11/1981 2 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009
13:10.98 Haile Gebrselassie 1 Sindelfingen 27/01/1996
13:11.39 Alberto García ESP 22/02/1971 1 Gent 09/02/2003
13:11.47 Dejene Berhanu ETH 12/12/1980 2 Birmingham 20/02/2004
13:15.22 Paul Bitok KEN 26/06/1970 2 Birmingham, GBR 14/02/1999
13:17.46 Mike Kipruto Kigen KEN 15/01/1986 2 Stockholm 02/02/2006
13:17.89 Bekana Daba ETH 29/07/1988 1 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
13:18.12 Galen Rupp USA 08/05/1986 2 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
13:19.30 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 27/11/1975 3 Birmingham 20/02/2004
13:19.79 Samuel Chelanga KEN 23/02/1985 3 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
14th on the list and the 12th best runner all time.