DIII Indoor Prediction Thread

my swaggers mick jaggers wrote:

What do guys think it'll take to make the 5k? 14:45?

Probably more like 14:35 based on last year. They really should expand the fields. There's no reason they can't take 15 or 16 guys in a 5K, and same with the mile. Last year they ran prelims to eliminate 2 guys.

Calvin College is competing indoors this year. They might have some good indiviuals, and their girl's DMR would be solid.

They can't take anymore guys in the fields. There is a set number of total athletes allowed in the meet. The coaches had a chance last year to with the expansion of numbers to get bigger fields but they were not smart and instead voted to expand numbers and had the multi event to the meet. Doing that made the expansion in numbers a wash. Maybe add one more athlete to each field but that is about it.

hmm.. wrote:

If you aren't faster than the winning time at D3 nats, then you aren't aloud to call it "baby" nats.

So are you *quietly* to call it baby nats?

Well, I'll try not to take offense to being a "not smart" coach, but what you said is only half right. The pentathlon was added for both men and women. Also, the field size minimum has been increased from 10 to 11, however the relays will still be at 10. Therefore we "not smart" coaches did vote to increase the field size and add a much needed event (even though the pent should be a help for the men).

As for how many make the 5k, it doesn't really work on an event by event basis. It comes down to how many people double. That's the only way there will be "more" people in each event. History tells us that women tend to double more than men, which is why their field sizes are larger, even though the total number of men and women are the same.

Vin wrote:

Ok, let's use our brain for a second. Kosgei will not be running the 800, Mile and 5k indoors.

actually, he's running all of those and the 3000 as well

i'm excited that they added the pentathlon, and i'm guessing most of the guys who qualify will double in another event (likely the long or high jump), so it shouldn't take up too many extra spots.

the increased minimum field size is long overdue. i once ran in a field of nine at indoor nationals. we ran a prelim to eliminate one guy... pretty pathetic.

Not much yet from the NYC-area teams, it seems--NYU opened its season pretty quietly last weekend. They have a lot of students take semesters or years abroad, so it's always about who will be on the team:

http://www.gonyuathletics.com/documents/2009/1/10/Results.htm?id=164

These Met Coaches results also show Johns Hopkins with some real strength among their female distance runners...

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My question: How does Cortland look so far? They certainly were the preseason favorites, based on their (obvious) distance strength and last year's great coverage of the explosive events; how are they doing this year?

Oh, and props to those with the cojones to make specific predictions about Nationals events. I'm always impressed by this.

what are people thinking for the DMR?

who the heck is Hulton??

Kehoe hit 1:52 this weekend in the 800. Looking pretty strong, but it's also pretty early. Disappointed that Butzler isn't going to be running this season. He was looking very good in his workouts before being deployed. Would have made for a good race in the mile should Kosgei decide to run it (not saying that it won't necessarily be one anyway, but I think we all agree that Kosgei is the clear favorite if he runs it).

Kaul hit 8:16 in the 3k this weekend.

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it really is too bad that leg speed will not be on display at nats...

Peter Kosgei will win any event he enters longer than 400 meters. I saw him run both a 4:03 DMR split indoors on a slow, flat track and a 1:48 going out in FIFTY ONE SECONDS THROUGH 400 METERS. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE HIM.

If Kosgei was truly a man he would win the 400 at Nationals.... Im pretty sure Butzler would have if he had tried

Not sure whey Kaul's 8:16 isn't getting more attention than one other post on here. Maybe there were pacers, I dunno, but if not it's even more impressive since he won by 19 seconds over his 14:3x teammate.

MK wrote:

Well, I'll try not to take offense to being a "not smart" coach, but what you said is only half right. The pentathlon was added for both men and women. Also, the field size minimum has been increased from 10 to 11, however the relays will still be at 10. Therefore we "not smart" coaches did vote to increase the field size and add a much needed event (even though the pent should be a help for the men).

As for how many make the 5k, it doesn't really work on an event by event basis. It comes down to how many people double. That's the only way there will be "more" people in each event. History tells us that women tend to double more than men, which is why their field sizes are larger, even though the total number of men and women are the same.

The 3k should've been added instead. So much spice

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