I thought the posts were interesting and wished to comment on the topics.
1) Alan Webb’s coach is clearly in over his head, having been put in the awkward position of continuing to coach an athlete whose talent supersedes Scott’s understanding of the sport. It is not unheard of for a high school runner to emerge into the national spotlight within the structure of the local coach, but then move onto (presumably) better coaching. Why Alan left Michigan, which had attracted several top milers for Alan to train with and compete against, is the key to the puzzle. When I say puzzle, I mean why this guy can be a world beater and yet any race is a crapshoot as to how he will perform.
2) Alan appears to be overly trained a great deal of the time in the last several years. His coaching team (I include his manager Ray Flynn) seems to be using a combination of philosophies, with Lydiard’s pyramid at the core. Lydiard modified Cerutty’s system, but even Snell broke from Lydiard and very successfully (No Bugles, No Drums), as Lydiard boldly predicted that Davies would defeat Snell in the 1500m in 1964. Alan, especially when looking at his high school speed, appears closer to Seb Coe, meaning less distance base and a steadier diet of intervals would suit him better. Of course, this implies his technique improves, as he has no pop in his stride now. Last year’s World Championships was difficult to watch, as Alan forced (willed?) his way to a 3:34, his stride virtually flattened and without spring.
3) If he is pyramid tapering right now, so that he is “training through” the last couple of meets, then a double of 1:47 and a 2:53 1200m are very promising. However, knowing the level of tapering and concurrent training are, of course, critical to assessing his chances in the trials. When his coach announced after a 1200m time trial that Alan would race at Pre, I guessed Alan had run 2:52. However, he looked okay at 3:55 and pressed a bit toward the end of the race, so maybe he ran 2:50. If so, then this double (I don’t know the time between races and which race came first) is promising and suggests he may be sharpening for the trials.
4) Kenya’s running federation is a disaster to all but the Federation hierarchy (kind of reminds one of Pre and the AAU), so any Kenyan that can get out if that mess, well, more power to Lagat. A number of Kenyans are now running for various countries around the Middle East, changing their names. However, the side issue of a runner raised in this country and succeeding in the middle or long distances is not addressed by Lagat’s new citizenship. While nationalism fades, at least to some extent, there remains the destruction of America’s middle distance prowess in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I have always put Ted Banks at the heart of this, although other “coaches” quickly followed suit. Using a loophole in NCAA regs, Ted, who I heard his job was possibly in jeopardy at one time, brought over world class athletes in distances, crushing the American kids trying to compete. Kind of like putting a high school football star up against the pros. At some point, there will be little left to the kid. I remember some of my teammates, who were good distance runners, going to compete in an early season triangular meet my freshman year (I did not qualify for the traveling team for that meet). They got lapped in a 5K and were never the same again. Yes, WSU’s Rono set a world record, something he could not have done at 19. My first race was against the World Cup 800m gold medalist from 1977, who blew by me at the 200m mark (I guess a 25 opening 200 was boring him) and cruised a 1:46.5 in April. I predicted it would take 10-15 years after the closing of the loophole before US high schools were assaulting the 4 minute mile again, and that was about right. Therefore, I still pull for an American to beat Lagat as a sign the “system” is restored. I will do the same in the 5K and 10K. I am not so focused on the Marathon, as I remember watching Frank Shorter win it all.