VDOT and training potential

I've got a question for some of you coach types.

I have a range of race times with dramatically different vdot values (using Daniel's tables)

Mile 5:55 vdot 49 (Aug 07)

10K 47:23 vdot 42/43 (May 07)

Half-M 1:44:48 vdot 43 (Sep 07)

Marathon 4:17:10 vdot 35 (Oct 07)

Now I know why the marathon time is so off - it was hot, I went out too fast, and I haven't figured out fueling/hydration strategies. So I'll discount that one.

The 10K was done on a hot day and had some significant hills.

I'm mid-40's, 6'2", 173 lbs, and I averaged 30mi/week (peaking at 40) during the half-M, marathon buildup, including 6 long runs from 16-20 miles.

The mile and half-M were both done on beautiful days on flat courses, and I ran both to my limits.

My question is, based on the mile vdot, I'm capable of a 1:33:12 half-M. Is it possible? Is it a mileage thing? Or am I just more of a fast-twitcher always doomed to this large difference in short and long events?

Since I have had some experience with these numbers, I will try to shed some light on the situation.

(1) It is good to compare values when the courses on which you run are similar in difficulty and weather is similar -- your mile and half marathon sort of show that those were the two best. The 10k is not so indicative of your ability since it was not under very ideal conditions. As for your question about running a half as fast as the mile suggests, that may be possible if you do training more designed for racing a half marathon -- more milege, more threshold sessions and some more races of 10k distance. If spending a season doing that and the half is still not up to (or closer to) what the mile suggests, then certainly you may be better designed for the shorter races. If dong the longer work and the mile time also improves then that is an additional suggestion that yuo will usually do better in the shorter races. Don't try to increase the training stress too rapidly or you may end up with an injury or two. Consistency is the key. Good luck

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