Vegas odds on who makes the U.S. Olympic Marathon Team

my feeling is that khanouchi would be way less of a favorite.

You must be a newbie to sports wagering. It's 3:1, not 1:3. 1:3 odds means that you would have to put 3 bucks on them just to make a dollar profit. Your odds are very generous by the way, you would be losing money if you were the house.

I would lower the odds on Meb(5 to 1) and Ritz(8 to 1)

Whenever Khannouchi has toed the line feeling he has something to prove then watch out.

Yes I'm a newbie to sports wagering. I figured I was doing something wrong; however, at work I cannot Google "gambling" or "sports wagering" without consequences.

I disagree. Here's how I would do it:

Abdi Abdirahman- 3:1

Ryan Hall- 3:1

Meb Keflezighi- 4:1

James Carney- 4:1 (known for surprise performances when it counts)

Alan Culpepper- 5:1 (not enough desire)

Dan Browne-6:1

Brian Sell- 6:1 (has trained hard and run sub 2:11 twice, but also has bad luck. Anyone remember what happened to St. Francis in their bid for the NCAA championships in 2000 - the team Sell led?)

Dathan Ritzenhein- 7:1

Khalid Khannouchi- 10:1

Peter Gilmore- 10:1

Clint Verran- 16:1

Fernando Cabada - 18:1

Mbarak Hussein- 20:1

Josh Rohatinsky- 50:1

Wow. Cabada doesn't even need to run and you still put him at 18:1.

There's already a thread on this http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2176638

Darryl Dorkman wrote:

Yes I'm a newbie to sports wagering.

That's obvious. Your book implies a profit margin of 87%, Vegas books only get 9.1%

malmo wrote:

Your book implies a profit margin of 87%, Vegas books only get 9.1%

I wonder how long it would take the Nevada Gaming Commission to shut me down. Well, at least I'd get rich tryin'.

1. Alan Culpepper 4:1

2. Meb Keflezighi 4:1

3. Ryan Hall 6:1

4. Abdi Abdirahman 6:1

5. Brian Sell 8:1

6. Jason Lem 10:1

7. Dan Browne

8. Peter Gilmore

9. Justin Young

10. Ryan Shay

11. Chad Johnson

12. James Carney

13. Fasil Bizuneh

2 more guys rounding out the top 15 that are either Hansons or no names. Take your pick.

Josh Cox DNF

Khalid K. DNF

Dathan Ritzenhein DNF

Jason Hartman DNF

But honestly who the hell knows. Anything can go down.

These odds basically need to be cut in half to get reasonable margins. Here was my first cut, with FF being the filedRunner Odds Actaul Prob Implied ProbAA 1.5 0.3889 0.4000RH 2.0 0.3241 0.3333MK 2.0 0.3241 0.3333KK 2.5 0.2778 0.2857BS 2.5 0.2778 0.2857AC 2.5 0.2778 0.2857DB 5.0 0.1620 0.1667DR 4.0 0.1944 0.2000FB 5.0 0.1620 0.1667CJ 6.0 0.1389 0.1429RS 6.0 0.1389 0.1429JC 6.0 0.1389 0.1429FF 4.0 0.1944 0.2000 3.0000 3.0857

Salmon Killer wrote:

I disagree. Here's how I would do it:

Abdi Abdirahman- 3:1

Ryan Hall- 3:1

Meb Keflezighi- 4:1

James Carney- 4:1 (known for surprise performances when it counts)

Alan Culpepper- 5:1 (not enough desire)

Dan Browne-6:1

Brian Sell- 6:1 (has trained hard and run sub 2:11 twice, but also has bad luck. Anyone remember what happened to St. Francis in their bid for the NCAA championships in 2000 - the team Sell led?)

Dathan Ritzenhein- 7:1

Khalid Khannouchi- 10:1

Peter Gilmore- 10:1

Clint Verran- 16:1

Fernando Cabada - 18:1

Mbarak Hussein- 20:1

Josh Rohatinsky- 50:1

um, if i put down $25 on Josh Rohatinsky to win and he does, you'll give me $26??? i don't even know who that is. are you serious about this?

Abdi 3-1 to just Make the team? Unless it's crazy weather you have to start more like 1:2 2:3 1:1 1:1.

Go Sell!

To make the team. In the real world Abdi would probably be about 1-7.

malmo wrote:

Your book implies a profit margin of 87%, Vegas books only get 9.1%

Darryl Dorkman wrote:

I wonder how long it would take the Nevada Gaming Commission to shut me down. Well, at least I'd get rich tryin'.

I misread your post. I thought those were the odds to win, not to place. In that case, your book represents HUGE exposure to risk.

26mi235 wrote:

These odds basically need to be cut in half to get reasonable margins. Here was my first cut, with FF being the filed

Runner Odds Actaul Prob Implied Prob

AA 1.5 0.3889 0.4000

RH 2.0 0.3241 0.3333

MK 2.0 0.3241 0.3333

KK 2.5 0.2778 0.2857

BS 2.5 0.2778 0.2857

AC 2.5 0.2778 0.2857

DB 5.0 0.1620 0.1667

DR 4.0 0.1944 0.2000

FB 5.0 0.1620 0.1667

CJ 6.0 0.1389 0.1429

RS 6.0 0.1389 0.1429

JC 6.0 0.1389 0.1429

FF 4.0 0.1944 0.2000

3.0000 3.0857

Those probabilities add up to 4.0857 not 3.0857 don't they?

There are 13 in there, 4.08 would imply an average of 0.314, and only one of them is above 0.314 by much all, so it must be 3.08 -- just checked and it is correct (I inserted some rows and thought maybe I have gotten some in that were not in the total). here is the cumulative sum to the right of the probabilities.0.400 0.4000.333 0.7330.333 1.0670.286 1.3520.286 1.6380.286 1.9240.167 2.0900.200 2.2900.167 2.4570.143 2.6000.143 2.7430.143 2.8860.200 3.086

malmo wrote:

26mi235 wrote:

These odds basically need to be cut in half to get reasonable margins. Here was my first cut, with FF being the filed

Runner Odds Actaul Prob Implied Prob

AA 1.5 0.3889 0.4000

RH 2.0 0.3241 0.3333

MK 2.0 0.3241 0.3333

KK 2.5 0.2778 0.2857

BS 2.5 0.2778 0.2857

AC 2.5 0.2778 0.2857

DB 5.0 0.1620 0.1667

DR 4.0 0.1944 0.2000

FB 5.0 0.1620 0.1667

CJ 6.0 0.1389 0.1429

RS 6.0 0.1389 0.1429

JC 6.0 0.1389 0.1429

FF 4.0 0.1944 0.2000

3.0000 3.0857

Those probabilities add up to 4.0857 not 3.0857 don't they?

26mi235 wrote:

There are 13 in there, 4.08 would imply an average of 0.314, and only one of them is above 0.314 by much all, so it must be 3.08 -- just checked and it is correct (I inserted some rows and thought maybe I have gotten some in that were not in the total). here is the cumulative sum to the right of the probabilities.

Nevermind. I had an errant integer on my spreadsheet. Note that the bookie profit in the right-hand column doesn't include the 2nd and 3rd payouts. The book balances with 8500 profit.