Northwest Conference (D3) XC

Based on last years's results, Willamette men look to take another team title. They return something like 9 of their top 10, including the individual champion, Ian Batch. George Fox and Linfield also look good based on their returners. UPS seems to reload every year, so they should be up there as well, but they are not as strong as they used to be. Whitworth and Whitman have some youth, but no front runners returning.

For the women, Zerzan, of Willamette, should repeat, especially after dominating at nationals. The team title will be up in the air with the strength UPS showed last year. Other contenders will be George Fox, Lewis and Clark and Whitman. Linfield could also be up there, but I'm sure on their returning status. Whitworth could also be up there, depending on how they return. 11 points seperated 3rd and 6th places. Overall, the women's field looks to be more competitive than the men's next fall.

Willamette will run away with the men's title in '07 but UPS will win the women's side.

Willamette will win the conference, go to nationals, and choke. Not that any team in the west seems to do any different...

bump

any thoughts now that the season has started? batch and the entire willamette crew looking strong.

Willamette men look strong of course. They returned nine of their top ten from last year, and they also picked up Kellen Peters from Pacific. Linfield will take second, especially if Brandt comes back healthy. Their top five will be tough to beat. UPS is having a down year, so I think Whitworth will slide into third, with four and five being a toss up between UPS and George Fox. Whitman falls into sixth, followed by Lewis and Clark, PLU and Pacific.

For the women, I think Willamette will take it. UPS should be right there again, but I was not that impressed with their performance at Sundodger. Admittedly it was their season opener. Although, if UPS continues to run like that, Whitman could challenge for second, but Whitman sits third right now. The next four spots I think will go to Lewis and Clark, Linfield, Whitworth and PLU, in any order. L&C is helped by their one-two punch of Phillips and Carleton, Linfield has a good crew of runners, but many have been held out with nagging injuries, Whitworth is often strong but is having a down year with no real front runners and PLU is much improved from years past with three possible top-25 runners. George Fox is hurting this year with a small team, that I think will finish eighth, but their top three are seniors so there is some experience there. Pacific will round out the meet, but they may not score as they began the season with fewer than five runners.

The general way it happens wrote:

Willamette will win the conference, go to nationals, and choke. Not that any team in the west seems to do any different...

Willamette has had several top 10 finishes at nationals in recent years for both men and women. What so you consider successful?

Brandt won't do shit. Or if he does, it will be early in the season and fade away in the post-season.

If Brandt makes a similar improvement like Fisher did this year, he'll be up there. He hasn't raced yet, so if he gets healthy he will make Linfield a lot better.

Any ideas on Men's individual picks? Hard to pick against Batch...XC last year, nice 10k/5k double in track last year. He's certainly the man to beat. Can Peters come back from injury to challenge him? Or possible rising teammate Lucas May? Looks to be a Willamette-Linfield dual meet individuals-wise, no one has shown they can run with either team (except possibly Gallagher). In no particular order we have:

Batch Wil

Knutson-Lombardo Wil

Clough Wil

May Wil

Peters Wil

Wilson Lin

Pollard Lin

McIsaac Lin

Fisher Lin

Reynolds UPS

Hanlin UPS

The Willamette Invite will pit all of these inviduals against each other in the same race, and should clear up a lot of the individual (as well as team) questions.

Predictions for Saturday?

Peters just got beat by 3 whitworth guys, and 5 willamette guys. I wouldn't pick him for much of anything besides being a tool.

This year the man's race is pretty simple. The only runners I see being up with Willamette and Linfield's runners at the front right now are Hanlin of UPS and Gallagher of Whitworth. However, this weekend could serve as a coming out party for someone, like it was for Wilson of Linfield last year.

As for the team race this weekened, I think things will likely follow form, as mentioned above. I don't see a breakout race from anyone having a huge impact on the top teams, but there could be a decent shuffle further back (George Fox, UPS, etc.)

Peters did finish third at Conference last year. Word is that he has been injured.

usghswhittie, any new insights after the Willamette meet. You seem to know a lot about the conference. Also, any thoughts on how the west region will play out?

Up front, Batch looked excellent. Willamette looked tough to beat in the region, destroying St. Johns (ranked 5th nationally). Willamette should move up in the national rankings. Linfield looked awful good, proving themselves as the clear favorite for second in the conference, handily beating UPS.

As far as individuals go, Willamette was shocking with their depth, going 1-5 in the conference. As of right now in the conference, it looks like this:

1 Batch WU 24:36

2 May WU 24:55

3 Roholt WU 25:04

4 Knutson-Lombardo WU 25:08

5 Clough WU 25:12

6 Pollard LIN 25:16

7 Nebert WU 25:17

8 Peters WU 25:18

9 Jimenez WU 25:25

10 Wilson LIN 25:25

11 Reynolds UPS 25:29

12 McIsaac LIN 25:41

13 Kotaich WU 25:41

14 Hanlin UPS 25:42

15 Platano WU 25:48

16 Fisher LIN 25:50

17 Ware GFU 26:09

18 McLaughlin WU 26:16

19 Parker WU 26:18

20 Millard WU 26:23

21 Neill WU 26:26

22 Finney GFU 26:27

23 Rebol WU 26:28

24 Davis LIN 26:29

A few things of note: Wilson, Peters, and Hanlin (2, 3, 4 at conference last year) were 10, 8, 14, respectively. Wilson has been struggling with an injury, and last year Peters ran close to 26 at this meet after breaking 25 at Sundodger 2 weeks before. They both should come on strong towards the end of the year. Hanlin has been healthy, but just isn't producing thus far. Reynolds looked stronger than last year, and May has come completely out of nowhere this year. He wasn't even part of the Willamette rampage of the distance events last track season. Roholt has steadily improved after a great track season. Knutson-Lombardo and Clough ran consistent, but not outstanding. Batch established himself clearly as the man to beat in the conference.

One last thing of note: Willamette held out their 'A' squad last week at the Conference Preview at George Fox. At Fox it went (with improvement at Willamette in parens):

Wilson LIN 25:46 (-21)

McIsaac LIN 25:47 (-6)

Pollard LIN 25:48 (-32)

Fisher LIN 25:54 (-4)

Platano WU 26:05 (-17)

Ware GFU 26:18 (-9)

Jimenez WU 26:20 (-55)

Eberhart GFU 26:22 (+11)

Finney GFU 26:22 (+5)

Smith WU 26:38 (-5)

Willamette had 2 of the biggest time drops, which seems to indicate an easier week of training for them. Pollard raced noticeably smarter/harder, and Wilson is still gaining fitness, which explains their drops in time. 55 and 17 second drops for Jimenez and Platano are awful fishy. Last year the Willamette Invite was arguably the best race Willamette ran, and they have shown a history of not-so-hot finishes at Nationals. No more big showdowns before Conference, should be interesting to see what happens.

Man are you stupid. Your facts are all in reverse. Check them man. How do you know that Willamette took it easy this week and Linfield ran smarter. Tell me Linfied guy do you coach there.

Pacific University should be up there. Their guys have been running pretty intense and high mileage lately, and when they taper expect a 5-6 minute drop per person...

5-6minutes in the 8k?

per person? so if I ran 30:00 at the williamette invite, if I ran for pacific, I should expect to run 25:00-24:00 at conferences. One might drop that much in their college career, maybe. but even that is highly improbable.