Why can't Ritz run sub 13?

Silverback,

And think of those that were doping but were not caught *cough* lahlafi, not to mention Said Sief who was. I think your 16 would shrink to half that number if we take out the cheats.

Regardless, talent-wise (where we don't take into consideration the talent of being able to train hard without getting an injured... which is the key variable) I still contend we have a handful of guys with the potential.

I think Ritz will break 13 later this year or next as long as he can stay upright. Call me a troll but I think a lot of Flag's post are right on...

I would recommend every runner learn the Pose Method technique. Economy is of utmost importance when speed and and endurance are ones goals.

The things FW said regarding Webb, Ritz and the 10k forever taint his words. Those statements were so stupid and inaccurate and yet so sincere that predicting the medal winners in every event in the next Olympics wouldn't make up for that gaff.

Mtn Dew wrote:

The things FW said regarding Webb, Ritz and the 10k forever taint his words. Those statements were so stupid and inaccurate and yet so sincere that predicting the medal winners in every event in the next Olympics wouldn't make up for that gaff.

Dude,

Methinks that you are the troll here. I make a comment ONE YEAR before that 10,000 race that Webb could never beat Ritz in a 10,000, and then he does by a second (during a time Ritz was still gaining fitness after being off with injury); I just happened not to qualify that statement of mine which if pressed I would have of course. If you go back to threads just prior to that race, I said that Ritz SHOULD beat Webb, but that because he wasn't at peak fitness that it was entirely possible Webb could beat him. The more recent of the comments is what really should hold water.

Anyway, even giving you the fact that technically I was wrong with that statement, that is one wrong statement among a host of other not only correct statements, but statements that were right on the money. One wrong prediction does not reverse all the right ones.

Ritz will break 13. Tick tick tick.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

Ritz will break 13. Tick tick tick.

You know, just a few months ago, you wrote "12:50? It's a certainty," and "12:50's a-coming." Well, So what has happened to those visions? Have you changed your mind? Just seems like you're backtracking.

sd track club wrote:

Flagpole Willy wrote:

Ritz will break 13. Tick tick tick.

You know, just a few months ago, you wrote "12:50? It's a certainty," and "12:50's a-coming." Well, So what has happened to those visions? Have you changed your mind? Just seems like you're backtracking.

Couple of things for you:

1) I've said 12:50 is the height of Ritz's possibility true. I still believe that he has the talent to do that. I've also said right from the get-go that if he moves to the marathon soon that he may not reach his potential in the 5,000. That's a fair and reasonable statement.

2) By saying he will break 13 minutes, that does not mean he won't run 12:50. Many of you are saying he can't break 13 minutes, so that's a good milestone to look at. I say he can.

3) What's always with this "backpedaling" talk? Not just me, but you people say that all the time here. Situations can change to make a person change their mind. I once had a girlfriend I thought I might someday marry, but then she went to Kentucky for a week and came back with a thick Appalachian accent. I gave her three days to get rid of it, and when she hadn't, I told her to hit the bricks. Not that I have anything against that kind of accent...I have something against someone having so little sense of self that they could acquire an accent so quickly and keep it longer than about 10 minutes after returning. If Ritz were to start giving excuses or talking about how he needed a break from running or any of the other things that signal burnout, I would say he won't break 13:00. That would not be backpedaling. That would just be the reality of what would have happened to him. As of now, I don't see that happening, so I say sub 13:00.

Actually Flagpole, looking at this thread, you didn't start putting the qualification about the marathon until several other posters had brought that point up.

By initially citing 12:50 as a time and then going to 13flat, that is backpedalling. So do you want to go on record that you STILL think he will go 12:50? If you say no, then that is backpedalling plain and simple.

Btw, I thought you were going to leave this thread alone? hahaha Frankly, I thought when you returned you were actually going to define talent. Guess you still can't? And still deleting posts too huh?

Tadpole Willy wrote:

Actually Flagpole, looking at this thread, you didn't start putting the qualification about the marathon until several other posters had brought that point up.

By initially citing 12:50 as a time and then going to 13flat, that is backpedalling. So do you want to go on record that you STILL think he will go 12:50?

I said a long time ago (not just in this thread) that if Ritz went to the marathon early that 12:50 would not happen. He's going to the marathon. I still believe he has the talent to get to 12:50 and believe he would if he put off the marathon until about age 28 or later. My choosing of 12:50 was conditional.

Find the thread where you say he can go 12:50 if he isn't focusing on marathon training. I did some searching and could not find anything in the last 6 months. I am serious about this.

If Ritz does not get his 1500/mile time down lower, he will not get to sub 13:00. He seems to be going the other way(marathon) So I predict that he will be concentrating on the 10K as his main race in '07 and '08.

Ok, here's how I see it. It will all be a moot point after tonight. Ritz is in the best shape of his life, and he needs to show us what he is capable of TONIGHT in a great race. If he goes sub 13:10, then we can begin credibly talking about the chances of a sub-13:00. But if he runs @ what is seemingly becoming a commonplace 13:20 for him, I don't see how we can keep holding him in the same light as a Bob Kennedy. Kennedy ran a much faster 3000 and possessed superior mile speed to Ritz.

I have agreed with you along along Willy that Ritz is something special and possesses a ton of natural strength, which makes him perfectly suited for the 10k on up. I have vehemently supported your assertion that he will eventually go sub 27:00 in the 10k. I, however, have my doubts about a sub-13:00. But it's when you start talking about a 12:50 that you start looking ridiculous. Seriously, you are constantly defending yourself on these threads, and the very act of doing so makes you look all the more self-righteous. Just leave it alone and let the racing speak for itself. Ritz really hasn't done anything yet that he wasn't already capable of doing as a true sophomore in college.

The problem with Flagpole is that he's a fair weather fan....when Ritz was struggling last summer and this winter, Flagpole turned against him. Now he's all about Ritz and talking all this jazz about a sub 13:00. Wait until Ritz runs 13:25 in Rome - Flagpole will be dissing him again like he was after USATF XC this winter.

the thruth is wrote:

The problem with Flagpole is that he's a fair weather fan....when Ritz was struggling last summer and this winter, Flagpole turned against him. Now he's all about Ritz and talking all this jazz about a sub 13:00. Wait until Ritz runs 13:25 in Rome - Flagpole will be dissing him again like he was after USATF XC this winter.

That is complete BS. I'm no fair weather fan. I backed Webb when he was sucking eggs back at Michigan, and once Ritz ran 13:27 as a college freshman, I knew where his talent was. You go find one place where I've EVER not been positive of great things for Ritz. Go!

I've never dissed Ritz. He either runs well or he doesn't. I tell it like it is. He could limp home in 15:00 minutes in this next 5,0000 race of his, and I'd say he's still capable of sub 13:00. Because he is.

Still Waiting? wrote:

I have agreed with you along along Willy that Ritz is something special and possesses a ton of natural strength, which makes him perfectly suited for the 10k on up. I have vehemently supported your assertion that he will eventually go sub 27:00 in the 10k. I, however, have my doubts about a sub-13:00. But it's when you start talking about a 12:50 that you start looking ridiculous. Seriously, you are constantly defending yourself on these threads, and the very act of doing so makes you look all the more self-righteous. Just leave it alone and let the racing speak for itself. Ritz really hasn't done anything yet that he wasn't already capable of doing as a true sophomore in college.

I want to see FW respond to this. He skipped right over it for some reason.

Big Man wrote:

Still Waiting? wrote:

I have agreed with you along along Willy that Ritz is something special and possesses a ton of natural strength, which makes him perfectly suited for the 10k on up. I have vehemently supported your assertion that he will eventually go sub 27:00 in the 10k. I, however, have my doubts about a sub-13:00. But it's when you start talking about a 12:50 that you start looking ridiculous. Seriously, you are constantly defending yourself on these threads, and the very act of doing so makes you look all the more self-righteous. Just leave it alone and let the racing speak for itself. Ritz really hasn't done anything yet that he wasn't already capable of doing as a true sophomore in college.

I want to see FW respond to this. He skipped right over it for some reason.

No need to respond. If this poster is correct that just because I repond to most people it makes me look self-righteous then perhaps I should respond less. Probably going to have to respond less anyway seeing how as of 2:18 P.M. today I now own my own business. Those widgets need making.

RE: Why can't Ritz run sub 13?

Um, HERE'S why-

1 Bekele Kenenisa ETH 12:51.44 20

2 Shaheen Saif Saaeed QAT 12:51.98 16

3 Songok Isaac Kiprono KEN 12:52.39 14

4 Bekele Tariku ETH 12:53.81 12

5 Feleke Abreham Cherkos ETH 12:54.19 10

6 Kipchoge Eliud KEN 12:54.94 8

7 Bellani Hicham MAR 12:55.52 6

8 Limo Benjamin KEN 12:58.29 4

9 Tadesse Zersenay ERI 12:59.27 3

10 Choge Augustine Kiprono KEN 12:59.70 3

11 Kiprop Boniface UGA 13:01.70 3

12 Kigen Mike Kipruto KEN 13:05.72 3

13 Songok Boniface Kiprotich KEN 13:16.44

14 Ritzenhein Dathan USA 13:17.91

Notice how the first ten people WERE fast enough to run sub 13:00, but the Ritz was 18 seconds off of a sub 13:00. And it was his 2nd best race ever. And he's been uninjured for the longest stretch in his career. And he's been training as a pro for awhile now, and at almost 24, he is nearing the peak years for a 5k runner, and.......he still isn't close to sniffing 13:10, let alone 13:00. THAT is why he "can't break 13:00." Pretty simple , huh?

Ok, so you say that Ritz is near peak age for the 5k (what is that "peak age"?? For U.S. runners, what is their "peak age"???? Kennedy, Maree, Lagat, Centrowitz, etc. You can not really count Webb, Pre, Teg, Goucher, because they maybe did not peak.

instead of comparing Ritz to Kennedy, which are different eras (what...almost 10 year difference), compare Ritz to another ¨white¨ athlete who HAS broken 13:00 for a 5k. Craig Mottram