Do Athletes who run amazing times at young ages have short Professional Careers?

Not all teen phenoms even make it to senior ranks.Plenty of those who go on to be successful seniors peak younger than they should. It seems to be happening with jakob.Even usain bolt ran his fastest times when he was 21. Mary decker's career was up and down. She got injured as a teen,and had to come back,in order to be successful. Alyson felix had a great long career,but she's the exception,not the rule.

Usain Bolt was 5 days shy of 23 years when he ran his 9.58 and one day prior to his 23 year birthday he got his final PB (and WR) in the 200m (19.19)…

Very few runners have 10 years as high level pros regardless of whether they were teen phenoms or not. Well over 90% of pros will have short careers.

Well yes for the most part. The list goes on for athletes who started early and peaked early as in they never reached their full FULL potential rather they just ran a fast time at an age where its rare I.e 3:27 at 18 years old is rare but 3:26 at 24-25 is common. Running this fast time at 18 means you've hit or come close to your genetic ceiling especially if you started at ages 7-8. Hicham El guerroj started athletics practice at 16 but peaked around ages 24-25 (broke 1500/mile records around this time) while Jakob started training around 7-8 and probably won't ever touch 3:25. He's close to his genetic limit or probably touched it since he ran the 3:27.

Cain

Ping

Lane

Tuohy

Effraimson

Very early success means early failure.

Grace Ping. Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Still wild to me that she hasn't run a 5k in college as fast as she did when she was 13.

Kim Collins competed in his first global Championships at the 1996 Olympics, won 100m gold at the 2003 World Championships and ran his personal best in 2016.

Her HS frosh times are faster than her college senior times. Too much too soon.

Each one of these is a different story with peaks at different ages. Tuohy still has plenty of career in front of her.

Sprinters and 400/800 types have had most regular success. Distance runners the least success.

Decker, and Sarah Bei Hall both had long pro careers.

Few young runners, especially females, have long careers if they start running too hard too early. Parker Valby did not run at all until her freshman year (played lacrosse and swam). Heather MacLean joined the track team she was 16. Addy Wiley did not run seriously until her junior year (soccer and basketball) and not full-time until a senior. Two are Olympians and two have American records. The idea that you need to start accumulating miles when in 6th or 7th grade is ludicrous.

There is no more glaring example right now than Valby/Tuohy. Tuohy set a bunch of meaningless age records and was running full-time since at least 7th grade, and today she would be at best the #3 or #4 runner on the NC State XC team and is running barely any faster than she was as a sophomore in HS. Valby won 6 NCAA titles in 364 days, obliterated both the 5000 and 10000m records with barrier breaking times (1st sub-15, 1st sub-31), and made the Olympic team.

Sometimes yes, sometimes now.

It is pure speculation to assume that anyone on your list would have had a better career if they'd run slower when they were younger.

No, it usually comes down to the rate of physical maturation. Absent injuries, the reaching of a genetic ceiling is not affected by overtraining at a younger age, and it usually occurs during someone’s mid-20s.

normally you have six years once you go start training hard from some kind of a base of lighter running and sports.

the peak is around 22. to 25 years old,

22.9 would not be far off the average PR historically of elites

there are notable exceptions, but few

Don't know what he ran as a 15-16 yr old, but Steve Cram ran a 3:57 mile when he was 17. Pretty successful afterwards.

Was Ping really good young? Definitely not

6 years is just made up 😂😂😂😂😂

You also have to factor in the physical changes that may have occurred after her freshmen year. Too often in girls they are detrimental to performance.

An example of survivor bias...

You never hear of the people who ran comparable times and then did nothing.