There's an article out on the CU website that makes note of some of Rojo's comments
Some have publicly expressed their doubts (they link to Rojo's article here) that the 31-year-old mother can carve 7.64 seconds off her already lightning-fast mile record set in Monaco in 2023.
“She’s not going to break four and it’s not going to be particularly close,” wrote one skeptic.
But Kram contends that while others focus on how much energy she must expend, his team’s research emphasizes how much energy she can save by drafting—or using other runners to push the air molecules out of the way, reducing resistance.
In the case of Kipyegon running a 4-minute-mile pace alone, just pushing against the air eats up 13% of her energy, according to the team’s calculations.
The study forecasts that if she used just two female pacers, which switch out at the half-mile point, Kipyegon could reduce that drag by about 76%, enabling her to run a 3:59:37.
A promotional video from Nike suggests that a pack of both male and female elite runners will pace Kipyegon Thursday, with some of the male runners sticking with her the entire mile—which could reduce air resistance even more, Kram said. (He notes that Bannister also used pacers for his historic run).
“On Thursday, she will have better than 70% drafting and all of these other contributing factors like the shoes and the clothing,” he said. “I think there is a really good chance that she will break four minutes.”
I told Rojo about this on the phone, and he said, “Maybe it’s not crazy,” acknowledging that perfect pacing and drafting might make up a second per lap — and pondered if it could be even two seconds per lap with absolutely ideal conditions.
But then he changed course: “She’s already had a pacer halfway. A 4:07 miler isn’t comparable to a 4:00 miler. Not going to happen.” He also asked, “If drafting is so important, why aren’t they doing a diamond around her?”
📄 CU Boulder article:
📄 Rojo’s original take:
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2025/04/sorry-track-fans-faith-kipyegon-isnt-breaking-400-in-the-mile-can-we-live-in-the-real-world-and-not-la-la-land/



