Scientist Who Predicted Kipchoge Would Run 2:00:30 Says Kipyegon Will Run 4:01 in Sub-4 Mile Attempt

(This article was published before the race. We have lots of post-race coverage here:

LRC Faith Kipyegon comes well short of first female sub-4:00, runs 4:06.42 mile in Paris 

• MB: Faith Kipyegon breaking-4 official discussion thread
•  MB: I’ve timed it twice – I’m pretty sure Faith Kipyegon didn’t run a 4:06.42 mile today in Paris. What was here real time?
• MB: What did Nike actually spend on the sub 4 mile attempt? The numbers we are hearing may shock you.
• MB: Nike claims that in a pre-race test, another Nike pro ran 3% faster in mile with pacers and speedsuit. So what happened? 
• MB: This Faith Kipyegon thing illustrates something that really bothers me with how women are marketed to/treated in general
• MB: Whoever came up with the idea of Faith Kipyegon breaking 4min should be fired
• MB: Faith Kipyegon Not Even Close to Sub 4)

With Faith Kipyegon set to attempt the first sub-4:00 mile by a woman on Thursday in Paris, biomechanics expert Dr. Mike Hahn joined the LetsRun.com Track Talk podcast to share his insight on what it would take — and whether it’s likely.

Hahn is based underneath Hayward Field as the director of the Bowerman Sports Science Center at the University of Oregon and associate director of the Wu Tsai Human Performance Alliance. His work spans everything from motion capture and wearable sensors to force-instrumented treadmills and performance footwear testing.

When it comes to predicting a time, Hahn admits it’s more art than science. But he does have a track record: he predicted Eliud Kipchoge would run 2:00:30 in his first Breaking2 marathon in 2017. Kipchoge ran 2:00:25.

So what about Faith Kipyegon?

Faith Kipyegon celebrates Olympic gold #3 (Kevin Morris photo)

“It seems like it’s possible. It’s feasible,” Hahn said. “Is it probable? That’s another one… but if every single step goes perfectly, it’s possible she can do it.”

Hahn believes the key lies in maximizing every detail — from acceleration and pacing to footwear and biomechanics.

“ If her acceleration off the line is more efficient, she can save quite a bit. If every single step she’s using this shoe exactly correctly, she can save a little bit of energy… it’s only four minutes, right?” he said.

And from his perspective, it ultimately comes down to the simplest of mechanics: “Is that fewer steps? More frequent steps? What are the actual mechanics that will get her there?”

As for his prediction? Hahn thinks Kipyegon will come up just short — barely.

His official call: 4:01.

Listen to the full interview with Mike Hahn (plus new European 5,000m record holder Andreas Almgren and more) on this week’s LetsRun.com podcast in the player below or here on your favorite podcast app.

LetsRun.com Nation is More Skeptical

The LetsRun team also broke down Kipyegon’s chances on this week’s podcast. The consensus? Very kkeptical — but wary of being wrong, especially after Nike and Kipchoge came so close in the first Breaking2.

However, LetsRun.com co-founder Robert Johnson (Rojo), as usual, was the one who didn’t hold back.

“It’s definitely no for Faith Kipyegon… she’s not coming down seven seconds (from her 4:07 mile to 4:00).” He added: “If that’s true [that she wore the super shoes in her 1000m race in Paris], then I’m already saying there’s zero chance — then there’s doubly zero chance. The pacing [drafting] is not worth seven seconds. I don’t care what Rodger Kram’s dumb paper says.”

Rojo’s previous comments discounting Kipyegon’s chances haven’t gone unnoticed.

CU Boulder & Rodger Kram Respond to Rojo

CU Boulder’s Rodger Kram — whose landmark research on drafting played a role in Nike’s original Breaking2 attempt — responded directly to Rojo’s previous comments on Kipyegon’s chances in an article published yesterday:

“Anyone from top elite to lower-level runners can benefit from drafting,” he said. “But, the faster the speed, the more air resistance a runner faces, and the more drafting matters.”

“On Thursday, she will have better than 70% drafting and all of these other contributing factors like the shoes and the clothing,” he added. “I think there is a really good chance that she will break four minutes.”

LetsRun.com nation disagrees, with 89% of you saying she will not break 4:00 on a poll on the LetsRun.com homepage.

Talk about the Breaking-4 attempt on the world-famous letsrun.com fan forum at letsrun.com/forum

*MB: Faith Kipyegon breaking-4 official discussion thread (+watch party/reaction show at 1:55 pm ET)
*MB: CU Boulder Scientists (Drafting Experts) Call Out & Respond to Rojo’s Comments on Sub 4-Mile Attempt

Vote in the poll here:

🎧 Hear the full interview with Mike Hahn (plus Andreas Almgren and more) on this week’s LetsRun.com podcast: