Can I OTQ in the marathon and run sub-4 in the mile in my early 30s?

will look to do strides at least once a week as well to build up some speed

😂

I'd focus on putting down a fast half marathon time. Until you're down to sub 1:08 or sub 1:07 at the very least I wouldn't even think about an OTQ. But a half will predict your marathon potential a lot more than chasing a low 4-min mile (or even 5km) imo.

But part of it is building a consistent high mileage (base). Too much "speed work" will distract from specific marathon work and aerobic base sometimes.

Definitely, I know I’m at least a year out from being anywhere near the goals, but hoping to hit some good halfs as tune up races. Will keep in mind the 1:07 benchmark—thanks!

Regarding the speed work, I’m hoping Pfitz’s VO2 max stuff closer to the race will help, and then doing a mile block with more specific mile workouts will add a bit of speed to go with the base from the marathon training. I’ll plan on keeping a tempo and high-ish mileage during the mile block as well. I’m looking at one of Mark Coogan’s mile plans since his emphasis is having a strong aerobic base to run a fast mile

Agree with Sage. I don't think it's worth it for you to run a bunch of marathons under potential, as you're building mileage/fitness back up. 10k-half focus, with some speed mixed in, could get you close to mile PB shape. Sub-4 & OTQ are radically different goals that would require going all in on either. Running a 2:30 marathon doesn't really help with either. Your HS times are fast enough to OTQ.

You're a seasoned runner, have run 4:14 and 9:10 in High School, dabbled in Triathlons where training is very involved. And you are asking a message board what you are capable of? If you are asking this question then the answer is probably not. You were a good runner, you should know how to analyze goal requirements. I think you like talking about what you could do instead of actually doing it. Prove me wrong.

I agree ambitious goals and don’t think you can do it. But I hope you prove me wrong.

OT's are Feb 2028 so you have 3 years or 6 marathons. What are would the jumps you'd have to make, I'd guess sub 2:37, 2:32, 2:27, 2:24, 2:22, 2:20. Let alone OTQ will probably be 2:16 by then but let's just ignore the biggest and hardest bit.

That progression would be insanely improbable I have never seen anything vaguely approaching it.

But hey, if you're stupid enough to try, I'm stupid enough to support you trying. Good luck

OP, you'll almost certainly need a coach that has experience getting people from where you are now to where you want to go. Your training is going to have to be significantly more aggressive than a block of Pfitzinger to start out, but obviously you can't fly too close to the sun or you'll burn up.

Given your history of injuries, no, I don't think you can do either. Perhaps with the older qualifying times you would have had a chance, but the last OTQ was 2:18, and it's likely that'll go down for 2028.

However, please consider that there are lots of other worthwhile goals for a runner with your talent. How about winning some races? You won't be winning the NYC marathon, but there are plenty of 2nd / 3rd tier races where as you grow faster, you'll have a chance for some glory and some cash and just a feeling of general happiness.

If chasing times is your thing, start by going after 2:40 and then 2:30. Running a sub-2:30 marathon is an incredible accomplishment.

Given your history of injuries, any ambitious training will need to be buttressed by injury prevention measures - slow mileage build, cautious addition of higher speed workouts, and strength training.

It’s hard to give a definitive answer, because these are difficult goals. But you have ran 4:14 already, and it’s much easier to get back to that level from scratch if you have been there before.

You should stop running marathons for now. I’d train purely as a 5k runner with high volume. If you have ran 4:14 then you can probably get your 5k time down to sub 15:00 quicker than most. Get to this level, we will call it base building. Hopefully it can be done in the next 12-15 months, it might take longer. Throw in a couple of 3k or 1500/mile races during the process, but not too many.

The next process is really hit or miss, because you could get injured or just simply not respond well enough to the training. But I would put in a full year of serious training to get as close to 14:00 fitness as possible, not racing very often at all, just building fitness. It will probably take longer than a year IF you can even reach it. As an aerobic guy you need to be as close to 14:00 shape as possible to break 4, or even faster, that’s just the facts.

If you can run under 4 then the hard part is done. You can run a few 10ks and half marathons off of not a big change in training. Then go for the marathon. OTQ will take a few marathons and lots of specific training to get right. The good part is that you are only 31. You can be competing in top shape for atleast the next 9 years. Tadesse Abraham is 45 and just ran 2:04 marathon, so don’t be scared that you are too old.

I hope it’s helpful, it won’t be easy, if it was then everyone would do it. You should find a serious coach, ideally somebody who started running in their mid 20s and reached OTQ and very good 5k shape as they will relate very well. Good luck.

This raises an interesting hypothetical. How many people who end up qualifying for the 2028 OT do you think could run a sub-4 mile between now and the trials? I think the number is most likely 0. I think Mantz would have the best odds but even his odds would be less than 50%. Galen probably could have done it when he first started the marathon but not sure if anyone else has the wheels.

OP, I think you should focus on the OTQ goal and forget the sub-4:00 goal.

I happen to be in a sort of similar situation. I had a good youth running career but nothing amazing and now I'd like to focus on OTQ but also kinda curious to explore the mile, with sub 4 being the dream.

IMO the thing to do is focus completely on the marathon and the OTQ. Whether you OTQ or not, start dedicated mile training after the trials or after your last OTQ attempt. All the aerobic fitness built from marathon training will be there and then you can work on the mile specific stuff. Give yourself a year of mile training to see how close you are and decide if you want to go back to training for OTQ 2032 or you're enjoying the sub-4 chase.

I think your marathon goals are good. If you're not sub 2:25 in the fall of 2025 (or at least truly in sub 2:25 shape -- maybe something goes wrong in the race) then you're almost certainly not OTQ'ing in 2027. You could still set your sights on 2032. But guys can get down to low 2:20's / high 2:10's and then get stuck there for years, where their fitness has essentially stopped improving and they're just trying over and over for that one magical day. If you have to grind your way through the 2:20's it's gonna be a very long journey. The 2:47 is a great start but your fitness needs to take those leaps in the next 12 months or you gotta reevaluate what realistic goals are. Also gotta be prepared for the possibility the OTQ standard drops significantly. I'm prepared to think of it as sub 2:17 but if it's sub 2:16 or sub 2:15, uh oh.

Also don't think you can halfass it and achieve such unusual accomplishments. It's not just talent and working hard during training. It's the whole lifestyle. Eating well, sleeping well, doing your strength training and mobility, etc. Your body is 100% gonna fall apart during these mileage and pace increases if you aren't doing everything you can to keep it together.

Just to show that it's possible-- Rod Dixon ran a mile time trial in 3:58 in a final tuneup before NY 1983.

He just ran 2:47 for a marathon, and you expect him to get to 15:00 in 12-15 months and close to 14:00 in another year? Neither of these is even remotely possible.

OP if you want to enjoy your running set reasonable, incremental goals. And decide one distance to focus on. Not two for which the training is so completely different.

2:4x is slow for the goals you have in mind. You have talent but 2:4x shows you are really out of shape. I have Never come close to your hs times (I am much slower) or your marathon (I am much faster)

It will take probably take 4+ years to get your mileage up to be able to OTQ. You have the talent but the marathon requires mileage... At least 80 mph but likely 100 but you'd need 120mpw to get the likelihood to be higher. But that will take years to do that without massive injury risk.

Sub 4 ain't no cake walk but you don't need years of mileage to get it so that would be easier to go after.

I hate to be the one to tell you this, but not only have the Olympic trials already passed, the Olympics actually ended back in August. There won't be another games (well, the winter version will occur sooner, but that doesn't really count) until 2028!

Also, it might help to know if you are male of female ( i think the OTQ standards are different for men and women), and if you're interested in breaking 4 in the full mile or the metric mile.

Finally, be careful how much you brag about that 2:47. If you really were a 4:14 guy in high school, some people might suspect you of doping to drop an hour and 27 minutes off of your 'thon PR. and going from a 9:10 mile to four minutes would be kind of unprecedented too!

Good luck!

Yeah it sure is a big mystery as to whether OP ran 4:14 in high school as a female.

Big dreams require big planning. Get a coach, following a prescribed program out of a book won't work.

You were a good High School runner but running sub 4 at 31 is beyond you from my perspective.

Dont get too excited by 2:47 as 2:18 is light years away. Be prepared for 80-100mile weeks avg for the next 2 years to reach your goal. Are you up for it?

Good luck.

OP, I’d check out this classic thread to get a sense of timelines & goals

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2270504

Eddy Lee had a 1:17 half to start, so similar fitness to where you are now, and admittedly a much slower all-time mile PR. It took him about 2 years to get to a much more modest goal than either of yours. Unless you are supremely talented, like a huge undiscovered natural, that’s the kind of progression you can expect and should aim for, IMHO