Ok State's Dave Smith: "There are five teams that can potentially win...but I wouldn’t say we’re a 50% chance to win."

I agree that I thin their odds are greater than 50% as last year they put 5 in the top 15 and this year return 4 of the top 15. Then they added new runners and there's more than a 50% chance that new runner will be in the top 15 or close to it. Then when you consider the returning runners theres more than a 50% chance they will run better than they did last year at least on average. when you consider all those factors from a mathmatical standpoint i think if everyone is healthy then Ok State will win 100%

as the math don't add up as 50% of 150% is 30% as if I remember correctly from that time my roommate took that stats class and got a B-

I will take the field if you want to place a bet.

Cool

What new runner did OSU add?

They're gonna win, only Arkansas really had a shot and that evaporated when Peter Maru got banned for doping. I think they have so much talent that even the wildest possible Wisco snow and/or mud wouldn't affect the outcome

Not to sound like a reactionary but it is more interesting to speculate how many Americans might crack their top 7 as well as what will happen to ~50% of their roster next year once the NCAA limits take effect

Rojo - it's basically statiscs, probability, and sports betting. 50% odds is pretty insane from a betting perspective.....

he's trying to sound humble, but come on already.

they bring back essentially the same team as last year, the 2nd place finisher (NAU) lost half their squad. BYU and Arkansas have improved but they're not even on the same level. at least 3, possibly 4 of OKSt. runners will finish in the Top 10. Unless their 5,6,7 runners fall into quicksand it might be the largest margin of victory ever.

They are definitely a big favorite assuming they stay healthy. Curious to see who they run at the cowboy jamboree this weekend. Doubt we see a lot of their top guys until the big 12 championships.

I take the field. My reasoning... The potential weather in Madison in late November

If I could get +100 odds on Oklahoma State to win I'd take it every time.

Probably not.

UTEP 1981 won 17-109

Stanford 2003 won 24-147

But the largest margin over 2nd place seems to be Arkansas 1999, 58-185

This early in the season, I don't think it would be wise to think any team is a heavy favorite. All sorts of things can happen. Runners get injured, sick, coaches change up training and it doesn't go well, one or two runners on a another team have a breakout year, etc. Yes, given everything known right now, OSU has best odds, but we'll all be able to make a much more informed bet a month from now.

Kenya will win

I think Dave is hedging after the last chance OSU had to threepeat. They won in 09 and 10, returned 7/7 in 11 + added Shadrack Kipchirchir from WKU, and then lost to Wisconsin (97-139, btw). Durign that season, everyone was saying OSU was a lock and it bit them in November. I'd guess it would be different this time because of how stacked they are, but you never know.

They added Laban Kipkemboi who just ran 23:19 for 3rd at Cowboy Jamboree. Denis Kipngetich won the Jamboree last year in 23:21 and finished 4th nationals.

They should put 5 in the top 10, 12 at the latest.

Laban was actually on campus last year. He moved to Stillwater last summer, he just redshirted XC last year. But yes, he’s technically a new addition to their XC starters