2024 NCAA XC: Previewing the Men’s Top 10, from #10 Harvard to #6 New Mexico

The summer of 2024 was an incredible one for running fans. The men’s 1500 meters was the best it has been in four decades, with Cole Hocker pulling the upset in a classic Olympic final. The men’s 800 enjoyed a remarkable resurgence — and that Olympic final wasn’t bad either. Heck, pretty much every Olympic final rocked this year.

What is a running fan to do now that the track season is (basically) over? It’s cross country time, baby.

The NCAA has never been more volatile than it is right now as it navigates an influx of NIL money, conference realignment, the transfer portal, and the pending House v NCAA settlement that could overhaul revenue sharing and roster/scholarship limits. Here are some of the major changes to be aware of as we get into the meat of the 2024 NCAA cross country season:

• Conference madness comes to cross country. Major programs have spent the past few years playing a game of musical chairs to ensure they still have a seat when the next TV rights deal is negotiated in football. Now we have a set of four power conferences (Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC) where geography means less than ever. It’s going to be weird seeing Oregon and Washington travel to Illinois for their conference meet, and weirder still to see Stanford racing the ACC Championships in North Carolina on a Friday morning with a 5 a.m. PT start time. But we will get to see some absolutely stacked conference meets on the first Friday in November. Oklahoma State v BYU v Colorado v Iowa State v Utah at Big 12s. Oregon v Washington v Wisconsin v Michigan v Michigan State at Big 10s. Stanford v North Carolina v UNC v NC State v Notre Dame v Syracuse at ACCs. One other thing to consider is how BIG these conferences are. It may best to think of them as more like regional meets (but with no attention paid to geography, much like the NCAA basketball tournament) as there are 16 teams in the Big 12 and SEC and 18 teams in Big Ten and ACC.
• Coaching changes in Boulder and Flagstaff. This fall marks the first time since 1991 that the University of Colorado will start a cross country season without Mark Wetmore on the coaching staff. The 71-year-old Wetmore’s contract was not renewed last summer following an investigation into the program’s practices surrounding body composition testing. That investigation plus poor results led to his departure. In 2023, the CU men were just 25th at NCAAs, easily the worst finish for a Wetmore-coached men’s team at NCAAs (only three times previously during the Wetmore era were the men not in the top 10 at NCAAs), and the women just 19th — their second straight year out of the top 10. (Stats here) We probably should take a moment to appreciate how great CU was most of the time under Wetmore. From 1994-2018, there were 25 NCAA XC championships. In 16 of those years, the combined men’s and women’s CU team placings added up to 10 or less. Colorado’s men’s and women’s combined NCAA placing totals during the last five years: 12, 21, 12, 19, and 44. Former Notre Dame and Tennessee distance coach Sean Carlson is the man tasked with succeeding Wetmore, who won eight NCAA XC titles during his time in Boulder. Meanwhile Northern Arizona coach Mike Smith, whose men have won six of the last eight NCAA titles (five under Smith), announced 2024-25 will be his final season in Flagstaff before he takes a job coaching pros with Nike. While the NAU men are rebuilding, the NAU women, who missed out on the NCAA title by one point last fall, have a great shot to win it all in Smith’s final season.
• An influx of Kenyan talent. Kenyan runners have been coming to the NCAA for more than half century. Back in the day, the best ended up at Washington State and UTEP. More recently, schools like Alabama, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State have found success with Kenyan stars. Now in 2024, it feels as if almost every program is tapping into the Kenyan pipeline. And with NIL offering a way to get paid while in college, the level of recruit is rising. Oregon just brought in Koitatoi Kidali, a 2024 Olympian who has run 1:42 for 800m. Texas Tech’s latest star is Solomon Kipchoge, a 28-year-old freshman who has run 59:37 for the half marathon. Virginia Tech brought a 27-year-old freshman of their own in 61:05 half marathoner Nicholas Kipchirchir. Add that to returning NCAA stars like Oklahoma State’s Brian Musau and Denis Kipngetich, Arkansas’ Patrick Kiprop, and Alabama’s Victor Kiprop, and the front of the pack at NCAA XC this year could have a distinctly Kenyan feel.

This will be my 11th season covering cross country for LetsRun.com, and this is as excited as I’ve ever been for a season to get going. Part of it is because NCAAs is heading back to Madison, Wisconsin, on November 23 an awesome college town with an awesome cross country course that produced some awesome visuals in the snow when home favorite Morgan McDonald beat Grant Fisher to win NCAAs back in 2018.

Yes, we are losing some major star power with the likes of Katelyn Tuohy, Parker Valby, and Nico Young all moving on to the professional level. But think of who is returning. There’s Graham Blanks, the reigning NCAA champion who just finished 9th in the Olympic 5,000m final and is coming back for his senior year at Harvard. And North Carolina’s Parker Wolfe, who defeated Blanks to win the NCAA 5,000m final in June. Blanks, 22, and Wolfe, 21, are two of America’s top long distance prospects (if you want to call guys who went 3-4 in the Olympic Trials 5,000 “prospects”) and getting to see them duke it out in cross country this fall should be a treat.

But it’s far from a two-man race. New Mexico’s Habtom Samuel was 2nd last year and has run 26:53 for 10,000 on the track, winning the NCAA title at that distance. OK State’s Denis Kipngetich and Brian Musau were 4th and 8th at NCAA XC as rookies last fall. And you just know there is a surprise package lurking out there somewhere.

Team-wise, what can the Oklahoma State men do for an encore after their 49-point masterpiece at NCAAs last season where they put five guys in the top 15 at NCAAs? Can the NAU women win it all in Mike Smith’s final season? Is this the year Oregon breaks through under Jerry Schumacher and Shalane Flanagan? It’s going to be an awesome season and I can’t wait to cover all of it.

Let’s kick things off with our annual LetsRun preseason top 10 (because we all know the real cross country season does not begin until October). We’re unveiling the first half of the men’s top 10 today and will reveal teams #5 through #1 tomorrow. As always, things can change with injuries/redshirts, but here’s how I see things as of now:

Honorable mentions: Virginia and Stanford. Both of these schools could easily finish in the top 10; there is very little separating them from #10 Harvard and #9 Wisconsin.

10) Harvard

2023 finish: 15th   *Returners from NCAAs: 6/7 (lose #3)   *Coach: Alex Gibby

When you’re trying to finish in the top 10 at the NCAA meet for the first time in 56 years, having the reigning NCAA individual champion is not a bad place to start. We know Graham Blanks will score in the low-single digits; the question is, what can the rest of the team deliver?

Blanks will try to repeat as NCAA champ this fall (Photo courtesy James B Daves/NCAA)

Harvard was 15th at NCAAs last year, and only loses #3 man Acer Iverson (97th) from that group. Ben Rosa (28:43, 47th in ’23) is an All-American candidate, while Shane Brosnan (28:39) and Charlie Ortmans (28:57) ran big 10k pbs on the track last year. Ferenc Kovacs (3:37/8:43 steeple) and Reed Pryor (13:57) should also contribute.

“This is the best group I’ve had at Harvard, it’s the deepest group I’ve had at Harvard, and, more importantly in terms of people that I think are going to contribute for us, it’s the most mature group I’ve had at Harvard,” said coach Alex Gibby, noting that he does not think his team will have to rely on freshmen at the end of the season as it has in previous years.

The Crimson will also be looking to end a lengthy drought at the Ivy League level — it has finished 2nd at the last five Heps XC championships and has not won the conference title since 1972. As good as the Crimson are this season, there’s no guarantee that drought ends; Princeton, winners of five of the last six Heps titles, are strong once again and ranked #18 in the coaches’ poll.

9) Wisconsin

2023 finish: 10th   *Returners from NCAAs: 6/7 (lose #1)   *Coach: Mick Byrne

Here is how we opened our section about the Badgers in last year’s NCAA preview:

Wisconsin has dominated the Big 10 in recent years, winning five straight conference titles, the last two with scores of 27 and 25 points. That success has yet to translate to an NCAA trophy.

One year later, not much has changed. Once again, Wisconsin dominated the Big 10 meet in 2023, scoring just 19 points — the lowest tally since the 2011 Badgers team that went on to win the NCAA title. Once again, Wisconsin came up short at NCAAs, entering the meet ranked #5 in the coaches’ poll but finishing 10th. The Badgers made the NCAA podium in four of coach Mick Byrne‘s first five seasons from 2008-12, but since then have finished no higher than 6th.

Wisconsin lost its top man at NCAAs from last year in Jackson Sharp, but this remains a talented group. Bob Liking, who ran 13:09 on the track last spring, is one of the top runners in the NCAA and this fall will attempt to join legends Craig Virgin, Bob Kennedy, and Kevin Sullivan as the only men to win four Big 10 XC titles. Adam Spencer (3:31 1500 pb) and Josh Truchon were both in the 70s at NCAAs last year, and Rowen Ellenberg was 45th in 2022 (but a disastrous 188th last year). Logan Measner, Johnny Livingstone, Liam Newhart, and Micah Wilson have all broken 14:00 and could step up to score this year, as could Kiwi Christian de Vaal, who won his opener at the Big 10 Preview on September 13. And keep an eye on Archie Noakes, the Aussie prep phenom (7:53/13:52 in high school) who transferred in from Oregon this year.

8) Notre Dame

2023 finish: 14th   *Returners from NCAAs: 4/7 (lose #2, #3, #5)   *Coach: Chris Neal

Notre Dame did not enjoy the luck of the Irish in 2023. Carter Solomon, who beat Parker Wolfe to win the ACC title in 2022, was injured over the summer and never regained his form. Vinny Mauri suffered a concussion at the Nuttycombe Invite. Josh Methner (13:32/28:40) slipped in the mud in the same race, resulting in a season-ending glute injury. Given the setbacks, ND coach Chris Neal was proud that his team was still able to finish 14th at NCAAs.

“It felt like a season where anything that could go wrong went wrong,” Neal said.

Neal expects 2024 will be better. Solomon, who was 18th at NCAAs in 2022, had the “best summer he’s ever had,” according to Neal and should be back to his old form. Methner is dealing with an IT band issue but should race this fall. And CJ Singleton (13:49/8:27 steeple), who was only 218th last year, made a big breakthrough on the track by finishing 5th in the NCAA steeple final.

Notre Dame also adds Cole Nash (13:48, 6th at ’22 NCAA DII XC meet for Alaska-Anchorage) as well as the nation’s top recruit in Drew Griffith, the Foot Locker champion who ran 3:57 and 8:31 in the mile/2-mile last spring and will likely race as a true freshman this fall.

“Drew is exactly what I was hoping he would be,” Neal said. “…He’s with the top group every day. We’re being very cautious with his mileage, but he’s doing enough to where I feel like he can be a real, real factor for us.”

Barring a series of 2023-like calamaties, the Irish should be a top-10 team.

7) North Carolina

2023 finish: 6th   *Returners from NCAAs: 5/7 (lose #2, #4)  *Coach: Chris Miltenberg

So far, North Carolina has improved during every year of the Chris Miltenberg era. After finishing 10th at ACCs in his first season in 2019, the Tar Heels were 9th in 2020, 4th in 2021, 3rd in 2022, and 1st in 2023, the program’s first conference title in 38 years. UNC went on to finish 6th at NCAAs, which was also the program’s best finish since 1985.

UNC loses two scorers from a year ago, but the Tar Heels could be even better this fall. Parker Wolfe, who recently appeared as a featured guest on our weekly Track Talk podcast, is one of the best runners in America and is coming off an NCAA 5,000m title in June. Miltenberg, who coached Grant Fisher at Stanford from 2015-19, said Wolfe compares favorably to the two-time Olympic medalist Fisher.

“I’m reluctant to say this publicly, but at every benchmark I’m looking at where Grant was at this point in his career and where Parker is, I see a lot of parallels – if not, even arguably Parker might be ahead of those benchmarks,” Miltenberg said.

Ethan Strand, one of the best 1500 men in the NCAA (3:35, 9th NCAAs, 12th Olympic Trials) is a capable #2, and Miltenberg expects Iowa transfer Max Murphy (69th at NCAAs) to make an immediate impact. Patrick Anderson (13:37/28:54) and Will Coogan (13:44) are ready to contribute again after a devastating car accident in the spring of 2023, and Colton Sands made a big breakthrough last track season by running pbs of 13:45/28:49. 2022 Foot Locker runner-up Noah Breker offers upside after redshirting last fall as a freshman.

Last year, Miltenberg believes he made a mistake by resting his team too much before ACCs and having them race a little too hard at the regional meet. UNC ran great at both of those meets but Miltenberg felt they were slightly off their game at nationals as a result. If they can time the peak right this year, Miltenberg believes this could be his best UNC squad yet.

“Stay on the gas in October and then if we get to a point where we can either rest guys at regionals or we can cruise through regionals, we’ll do that,” Miltenberg said.

6) New Mexico

2023 finish: 18th   *Returners from NCAAs: 4/7 (lose #5, #6, #7)   *Coach: Darren Gauson

Samuel was NCAA runner-up last year in XC and won the 10,000 on the track (Photo courtesy James B Daves/NCAA)

Coach Darren Gauson wasted no time in his first year in Albuquerque, bringing in Kenyans Evans Kiplagat and Lukas Kiprop and Eritrean Habtom Samuel to boost the program. Those three, led by NCAA runner-up Samuel (who would run 26:53 on the track and win the NCAA 10k title in June), took New Mexico to NCAAs for the first time since 2014, but a lack of depth kept the Lobos from contending for the top 10.

The “Big 3” return this fall, and Gauson has brought in reinforcements. Transfers Iker Sanchez (8:01 3k for Arizona) and Rikus Van Niekerk (14:02 5k for CBU) provide depth, and Frenchman Thomas Termote, who was on the team last fall but battled low iron, should be stronger after running 28:58 on the track last spring.

But the heavy artillery comes in the form of a pair of Kenyans. Vincent Chirchir arrived in January and ran 13:34/28:19 in his debut track season, just missing NCAAs. Gauson believes he can be a top-20 finisher at NCAAs. And Collins Kiprotich ran 13:58 at altitude in Nairobi earlier this year. Gauson said Kiprotich could be the “last piece of the puzzle” but given UNM’s newfound depth, it’s possible he could redshirt unless he is in New Mexico’s top two or three this year.

The New Mexico women made the podium seven times under previous coach Joe Franklin, but the Lobo men have never done it. That’s the best-case scenario for this team, but it will require the Kenyan supporting cast of Kiplagat, Kiprop, Chirchir, and Kiprotich to reach their potential behind the reliable superstar Samuel.

“We’d love to crack into that top four this year,” Gauson said.

Be a fan and talk about NCAA xc cross country on our world-famous messageboard / fan forum:

• How about some love for Lipscomb and coach Nick Polk? They were 11th at NCAAs with no transfers and no foreigners.
• Ok State’s Dave Smith: “There are five teams that can potentially win…but I wouldn’t say we’re a 50% chance to win.”
• Easy fix for the foreign recruiting issue in the NCAA
• Iowa St adds an 8:22 steepler Joash Ruto. Does this make them a threat for NCAA XC team title?
• I have little respect for NCAA teams that assemble foreign XC Teams

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Have you read our 3 other NCAA xc previews?

*Men’s #10 through #6 *Men’s #5 through #1 *Women’s #10 through #6 *Women’s #5-1 *All 2024 NCAA XC coverage