2024 NCAA XC: Previewing the Men’s Top 10, from #5 NAU to #1 Oklahoma State

Yesterday, we kicked off our 2024 NCAA cross country coverage by giving an overview of the season to come and looking at the men’s  teams #10 through #6 in our preseason rankings. Today we unveil teams #5 through #1, starting with the school that has won six of the last eight national titles… (women coming the next two days).

5) Northern Arizona

2023 finish: 2nd   *Returners from NCAAs: 2/7 (lose #1, #2, #3, #5, #7)   *Coach: Mike Smith

The NAU men have not finished outside of the top two at the NCAA championships since 2015, a remarkable record of consistency. Every time a key piece moves on, the Lumberjacks have had someone waiting in the wings to step up. But none of those NAU teams had to replace as much talent as this one.

Sahlman winning the Terrier Classic earlier this year (Kevin Morris photo)

Gone are Nico Young and Drew Bosley, both of whom finished in the top 10 at NCAAs in 2022 and 2023 (okay, both men are still in Flagstaff, but Young turned pro and Bosley is out of XC eligibility). Brodey Hasty, a key scorer who competed in five NCAA XC meets for the Lumberjacks, is finally out of eligibility. If you take Hasty, who finished 46th, 33th, 39th, 25th and 25th in his five NCAAs, out of the 2021 or 2022 NCAA results, NAU doesn’t win either year.

From last year’s top seven at nationals, only Santiago Prosser (21st) and Corey Gorgas (62nd) remain.

Those are some major holes to fill. Brit David Mullarkey, 40th at NCAAs last year, should make an immediate impact after transferring from Florida State. Colin Sahlman was incredible on the track last year (1:45/3:33/13:38) and was a high school national champion in cross country so he should have a huge impact, but he has yet to show he can deliver over the 10k distance. NAU had six other guys on its current roster break 14:00 last spring, led by Cael Grotenhuis (13:38) and Kang Nyoak (13:49, 5th ’23 NCAA XC Mountain Regional). Can one or two of them step up and reach a new level this fall?

History says it is smart to bet on NAU coach Mike Smith figuring things out, and Smith, who is leaving to become a pro coach at Nike next year, will not want to go out with a whimper in his final year at NAU. But there are more unknowns on this roster than at any time during his tenure in Flagstaff. If he can fashion an NCAA title contender out of this group, it would arguably be his most impressive accomplishment to date.

4) Iowa State

2023 finish: 5th  *Returners from NCAAs: 6/7 (lose #6)   *Coach: Jeremy Sudbury

Iowa State has become a fixture near the top of the NCAA, finishing in the top 10 in six of the past seven years (the Cyclones only missed in 2022, when they failed to qualify). Last year’s result came as a surprise, however. Iowa State was ranked just 17th in the coaches’ poll entering NCAAs, but strong runs by juco transfer Sanele Masondo (16th) and Rodgers Kiplimo aka Rodgers Rotich (37th) carried the Cyclones to a 5th-place finish.

They will not be sneaking up on anyone this season. Six of ISU’s top seven return, and coach Jeremy Sudbury is optimistic that Silas Winders, who was just 225th last year, can make a jump after running 7:49/13:48 on the track. Add in Gable Sieperda (43rd NCAA XC, 8:25 steeple), Said Mechaal (55th, younger brother of 3:30/7:30 guy Adel Mechaal), and Timothy Sindt (121st, 29:24 10k) and there’s a solid supporting cast.

The wild card here is Robin Bera. A rookie from Kenya, Bera has the talent to be an All-American right away and raises Iowa State’s ceiling, but it will depend on how he adjusts to the the US collegiate lifestyle. Sudbury admits he is something of an unknown quantity.

“He has run 8:06 and 13:58 at altitude,” Sudbury said. “…If he can at least be in our top five, he’ll make us better.”

3) BYU

2023 finish: 3rd  *Returners from NCAAs: 6/7 (lose #2)   *Coach: Ed Eyestone

Clinger, who graduated high school in 2017, is back for his final year in Provo (Kevin Morris photo)

BYU accomplished the rare feat last season of finishing in the top three in the team standings without an individual in the top 30. This year’s team should be even better. The Cougars do lose Olympic steeplechase silver medalist Kenneth Rooks, who finished 35th at NCAA XC, but they get back Casey Clinger, who missed last season with a case of plantar fascia but rebounded to finish 5th in the Olympic Trials 10,000.

If it feels like Clinger, who turns 26 next month, has been in the NCAA forever…well, it’s because he has been. He was 24th at NCAAs as a true freshman in 2017, served a mission in 2018 and 2019, then competed in 2020, 2021, and 2022 before redshirting in 2023 due to injury. Since the COVID year of 2020 did not count against anyone’s eligibility, Clinger has one year of XC left and is a good bet to finish in the top 10 as he did in 2021 and 2022.

BYU is always one of the deepest teams in America, and this year is no exception. Davin Thompson (13:35) is also healthy after missing the 2023 XC season and he is joined by Olympic steepler James Corrigan (32nd last year), Creed Thompson (46th), Joey Noakes (56th), Lucas Bons (63rd), Aidan Troutner (7:44/13:45), and Isaac Hedengren (13:46). That’s the foundation of a podium team, but to contend for the win with OK State, BYU will need one or two of those guys to break through and finish in the top 10 at NCAAs.

2) Arkansas

2023 finish: 4th  *Returners from NCAAs: 5/7 (lose #4, #5)   *Coach: Chris Bucknam

Arkansas has been a fixture on the podium in recent years, finishing 4th at NCAAs in 2020, 2021, and 2023. Coach Chris Bucknam is proud of those results, but is dreaming bigger in 2024. No program has won more NCAA titles than Arkansas (11), but it has been 24 years since the Razorbacks’ last championship.

“We have a deeper team this year,” Bucknam said. “I’m excited to see if we can make another step and challenge for a title.”

Patrick Kiprop (7th) and Kirami Yego (13th) are back to lead the way and are joined by Ben Shearer (42nd, 2023 Pre-Nats champ) and Akron transfers Timothy Chesondin (36th) and Brian Masai (13:34/28:45). Yaseen Abdalla (13:33/28:33), formerly of Texas and Tennessee, has also transferred in but may take a little while to work into the lineup considering he ran 2:11 in the Olympic marathon in August (a terrific run given it was his debut on a very tough course).

If Chesondin, Masai, and Abdalla stay healthy and run to their potential, they could lift Arkansas into title contention. But Bucknam knows it is a long road to November 18.

“These cats are all new to me,” Bucknam said. “They’re in a new town, new environment, new coach. It’s my job to see if we can’t get that to all gel together, get them acclimated to what we do, and have them output a good result…If we get to Madison and everybody’s feeling good, then we have a shot at running with the biggest of the big boys, Oklahoma State and BYU and all that.”

1) Oklahoma State

2023 finish: 1st  *Returners from NCAAs: 6/7 (lose #5)   *Coach: Dave Smith

It was not hard to pick OSU at #1. The Cowboys put five guys in the top 15 at NCAAs and scored 49 points at NCAAs last year, the lowest score by any team since 2005, and return four men (Denis Kipngetich, Brian Musau, Fouad Messaoudi, Victor Shitsama) who finished in the top 12. Add to that Ryan Schoppe (7:38 3k, 53rd ’22 NCAAs), Will Muirhead (13:43), Adisu Guadie (28:10) and promising Kenyan Laban Kipkemboi (3:56 mile, 7:59 3k indoors) and OK State has plenty of wiggle room if something goes wrong.

(From the archives: LRC #2 Oklahoma State Knocks Out #1 NAU, Graham Blanks Fires On All Cylinders For Harvard)

OSU coach Dave Smith is not taking anything for granted, however. Last year, OK State made it back to the top of the mountain for the first time since 2012. But Smith’s father used to climb mountains in the Pacific Northwest, and he would tell his son: the most dangerous part of the mountain is the summit.

“When you’re climbing, you’re paying attention, you’re watching what you’re doing, you’re focused on every step,” Smith said. “When you get to the top, you think you’ve made it. And you relax, you let your guard down, you want to take a picture or you want to have some lunch — and you step off a cliff and die.”

OK State has the most talent and the most experience, and given its top three runners (Kipngetich, Musau, Messaoudi) are juniors or younger, it’s not hard to envision them ripping off a run of two or three titles in a row. But the nature of college cross country make that difficult. Talent and experience help a lot, but the entire season rests on how seven men run on one day in November where anything can happen.

“If we were scoring 10, we’d be by far the best team,” Smith said. “I don’t think there would be any question. But a lot of teams have five guys. These are young people and a lot of things that can tip the scales one way or another, even in the week leading up to the national championship.

“…There are five teams that can potentially win. Maybe I would handicap it and give us the greatest chance of any of them, but I wouldn’t say we’re a 50% chance to win.”

Be a fan and talk about NCAA xc cross country on our world-famous messageboard / fan forum:

• How about some love for Lipscomb and coach Nick Polk? They were 11th at NCAAs with no transfers and no foreigners.
• Ok State’s Dave Smith: “There are five teams that can potentially win…but I wouldn’t say we’re a 50% chance to win.”
• Easy fix for the foreign recruiting issue in the NCAA
• Iowa St adds an 8:22 steepler Joash Ruto. Does this make them a threat for NCAA XC team title?
• I have little respect for NCAA teams that assemble foreign XC Teams

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Have you read our 3 other NCAA xc previews?

*Men’s #10 through #6 *Men’s #5 through #1 *Women’s #10 through #6 *Women’s #5-1 *All 2024 NCAA XC coverage