Is 12:30 really a crazy 5k time? Could Bekele have run it?

Here's another way to put it: 59.99 is faster than 23/25 laps in both of the previous world records. But to run 12:29 requires you to average 59.99 for the entire race. Is it possible? Perhaps. But it is unlikely and no matter what, yes it is EXTREMELY fast. Would be the best distance world record by a decent margin. I'd guess we'll see a sub-26:00 10k before we see a sub-12:30 5k. If the race in Oslo is actually paced through 3k in 7:29, I'm not sure anyone will break the world record. 7:32-7:33 and then a close would be better pacing for world record.

Yes, you're right. I could have run a 5k in 12:30 if only I would have had you and Sean Brosnan to give me advice.

It does seem pretty crazy because running that pace for 3k is still an elite time. But it’s not impossible for a healthy Jakob. He handily beat multiple 12:40 guys to win his world championship gold medals and he has a 7:54 2 mile. That should be worth low 12:30s

but he gothimmmmmmsellllfffffffff a rinnnnggggdidddddddn't he?

according to mulitple threads, Valby could run that if she ran >3 days per week and had decent form.

Ok reasonable, but also Bekele's first 2 laps were 2s and 2.5s slower than that pace, and his last lap was 2.2s faster than that pace. I threw Bekele's splits into Statgansta's lap optimizer calculator and it spat out 12:30.9. Keep in mind that's without supershoes/wavelights, and Bekele only got 2k of pacing. I threw Cheptegei's in and got 12:33. Keep in mind that's in hot/humid conditions and 2400m of pacing.

Is it unlikely? Sure. But is it possible that Cheptegei could be in slightly better fitness than he was 4 years ago? I think so. Last year he ran 12:41 (behind Aregawi's 12:40) despite running 12:55 pace for the first 2k. In that race, Aregawi ran his last 3k in 7:30.7, and while that's slower than 12:30 pace, he led the whole last 3k and closed the last lap in 55.7 (significantly faster than 59.99/12:30 pace). Cheptegei was right behind him, and was clearly very close to his 2020 shape, if not slightly better.

Also remember Oslo last year. Kejelcha and Kiplimo both ran 12:41.73 in what's probably the best 5k race I've ever seen. They closed their last 2k in 4:54, with 60.18/60.09/60.07/58.42/55.75 splits. From JWH:

The historically fast 5ks last year were run with absurd last 2k/3ks (Monaco notwithstanding because it had a slow 4th k). From how they ran them, I thought Aregawi, Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Kejelcha, and Gebrhiwet (12:42 to beat Aregawi and Kiplimo in Monaco) could have all run sub-12:35 last year. If there's 5 guys who can run sub-12:35, I doubt they all max out at 12:34.

Yeah I think people forget that Jakob ran 12:48 in 2021 to beat all the best 5k guys in the world in a fast race. And that was before he even started trying to win the 5k. And definitely before he was in 7:54 shape. I think Jakob would actually be the best guy to do it, I just don't think he'd take a shot at it this year. I'd love to see him give it a shot in Oslo, but if he's going for a WR there, he'd probably go for the mile instead. Maybe if we're lucky he'll think he doesn't have the speed due to injury so he'll do the 5k instead.

That's why EPO is king of the PED world and also king of track.

I didn't say YOU could run 12:30, just that you probably could've run faster if you stopped placing arbitrary limits on what's "too fast".

What do you think Kipchoge meant when he said "No human is limited" all those times? Did he mean "No human is limited unless they're one of the fastest people ever and they're trying to run a lot faster than the WR"?

The people who actually get results agree with me. I'm ok if anonymous LetsRun user #43359 doesn't <3

He tried to break his 5k WR in 2005. He ran 12:40. I don't think he could have gone much faster than 12:37 even with slightly better pacing.

So a perfectly optimized race (impossible) doesn't even have the greatest runner of all time under 12:30? And you think it's not only possible, that it will happen and is not even that fast?

What you're not understanding is that 1. a negative split is the most optimal way to run a 5k, and 2. averaging over 12:30 pace for the last 3k of a race that got out at over 13:00 pace is NOT encouraging when you are trying to break 12:30. 12:34 would be an INCREDIBLE accomplishment, but within the realm of possibility. 12:29 is not happening.

The limit set by talent and fitness is a brick wall, and it doesn’t matter what a runner thinks.

I doubt we will see a sub 26 10k before a sub 12:30 5k. When's the last time we had a really fast 10k TT with all the best runners in the world in one race, or any WR attempts at all? 26:11 also feels more "maxed out" than 12:35 despite being relatively equivalent mathematically, Cheptegei had better conditions and a great pacing job from Kimeli. For that reason sub 26 seems farther away

What were the splits in Cheptegei’a 2021 5000 gold vs Bekele in 2008? If I recall the times were quite similar

I'm surprised so many people are downvoting the OP given the swathes of LRCers who are adamant that Bekele would have easily run sub 12:30 with "cheater spikes and cheater lights" whenever comparisons between him and Cheptegei come up.

For what it's worth, I think he could have, but there would have been absolutely no room for error from the beginning on any front, and he probably needed a way better human pacesetter than what he got.

I’ll say it. Yes, with super shoes and pacing lights, Bekele could’ve run 12:29.

I think it's the questioning if 12:30 is really that fast. I mean, the number of times it's been done should give someone a clue if it's fast or not..

12:30.9 didn't come from a perfectly optimized race, it came from optimized splits. Big difference. 12:30.9 is what 2004 Bekele could have run if he had wavelights and was right on them the whole time. Assuming 12:30.9 is the limit is assuming that 1) Bekele was never in better shape than he was on that day, 2) Bekele would get 0 benefit from supershoes, and 3) Bekele would get 0 benefit from a pacer going further than 2k. I don't believe any of those things, so I think .9s is below the low end of how much it could be improved. Super shoes alone would give him more than .9s.

I think a negative split is the optimal way to run a 5k, but I think it'd be more like 12:39 pace for 3k, then cut down. Not 13:00 pace for 3k then 12:15 pace for 2k. They averaged 12:30 pace for 3k after 13:00 pace in Oslo, but if you think the ideal way to run that was 13:00-12:30-12:00 pace, then you may just not watch enough track to understand.