Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
Great post... I remember some years ago there was a thread after Garrett Heath ran 27:xx 10k there were only 2 other americans (lagat and webb) that had broke 1:48 and 28 mins. Would guess there are some others at this point but maybe not.
In 2021 Hocker ran 1:46.3 and 13:18 in his NCAA season, then ran a 3:35 race at NCAAs with a 1:48.8 last 800m. So far Colin has run 1:45.6 and 13:38 with a 3:33.9 race at Bryan Clay. Just off that they seem to be pretty similar (Colin has a bit more anaerobic ability while Cole has more strength). Colin will have the disadvantage as the US 1500m is much stronger now than it was in 2021. Tactics is another question, as Hocker turned out to be quite good there while we still aren't too sure about Colin. Ultimately I would probably place him with a guy like Cooper Teare, that could make the team if one of the big three of Nuguse, Hocker, or Kessler falter at trials, but obviously that could change at NCAAs
To be fair to Hocker, he didn’t run those in invitationals correct? He ran them as part of doubles/triples in championship races. And he ran 3:50.55 indoors and of course the NCAA double. Sahlman is really fit but ‘21 Hocker was flashing 3:31 fitness and we’ll have to see if Sahlman has another level to go to.
I am so curious as to what they are doing in training to produce such phenomenal results. Especially Nico. That range of 1:47 to 26:53 weeks apart is just incredible.
In 2021 Hocker ran 1:46.3 and 13:18 in his NCAA season, then ran a 3:35 race at NCAAs with a 1:48.8 last 800m. So far Colin has run 1:45.6 and 13:38 with a 3:33.9 race at Bryan Clay. Just off that they seem to be pretty similar (Colin has a bit more anaerobic ability while Cole has more strength). Colin will have the disadvantage as the US 1500m is much stronger now than it was in 2021. Tactics is another question, as Hocker turned out to be quite good there while we still aren't too sure about Colin. Ultimately I would probably place him with a guy like Cooper Teare, that could make the team if one of the big three of Nuguse, Hocker, or Kessler falter at trials, but obviously that could change at NCAAs
2021 Hocker a better kicker, no question. So what does "anaerobic ability" mean?? Swear you non scientist/physiologist just make up terms to sound smart.
Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
Where did they say they were confident he’d make the team?
I would have thought it was nuts with Nuguse, Hocker and ??? (Kessler) but now he’s definitely a big contender.
This week’s Coffee Club podcast (I think it’s episode 134), during an interview with Geordie Beamish.
Seems like NAU is really shaping up some amazing athletes, im impressed. Id say colin has a good shot in the trials this year. Its impressive when schools can shine in multiple event groups in a single season, and not just be known for "producing great x or y runners" like how ole miss or texas a&m was known for making 800m stars. Key word "was". Great work nico and colin!
Last time, if you wanted to make the Olympics for the 1500 in 2021 you had to beat Hocker - who at 20 and 2 months (4 months younger than Sahlman is right now) got 6th in Tokyo and ran 3:31.
You had to beat the reigning Olympic champion Centro who was so confident in his fitness that he took a crack at the American record in the mile before going to Tokyo and ran 3:49.
And you had to beat a star NCAA runner in Nuguse who was so fit he solo'd the Olympic standard by himself in the prelims of his conference meet. Two years later that same guy would run 3:43 in the mile.
Hocker was not WAY better than Nuguse in 2021. Here is the final 100 from NCAAs. Looks pretty competitive to me:
And let's don't act like the 4th guy at the 2021 Trials was some terrible runner. IT was Craig Engels. His 800 pb is 1:44.68 - way faster than what Sahlman's run - and his 1500 pb was 3:33.64 - also faster than what's Sahlman has run. And he ran that 3:33 in 2021.
It was a damn hard team to make in 2021 and will be so in 2024. This year we just have more depth after the top 3.
Hocker, Nuguse, Kessler, Sahlman, 3 UW guys, Engels, Centro, etc.
Wrong. You didn't need to beat Hocker or Centro in 2021, you just had to beat Nuguse. Nuguse was super fit. 3:34 in a prelim solo is great, but he was definitely much worse than Hocker in 2021, and definitely much worse than he is now. Sure, NCAAs was close, but here's a link to the trials race:
NCAA champ Cole Hocker overtakes reigning Olympic gold medalist Matthew Centrowitz to win the Trials 1500m in a personal-best of 3:35.28, a quarter-second sh...
At 120 to go, Hocker makes his move and immediately dusts the whole field, catches up to Centro, and then beats him. Hocker went from behind Nuguse to almost a second ahead in 120m. In a 3:35 race. He was a lot better than Nuguse. Centro was also a lot better than Nuguse. Sure, Nuguse ran 3:43 2 years later, but that's my point, he ran it 2 years later. He's a lot better now than he was then, as is Hocker.
Hocker was fantastic in 2021. Truly world class. No disputing it. He's better now though. 3:30 for 7th last year at Worlds coming off an injury. Silver in the 1500i this year. 8:05i 2 mile (Grant Fisher in WR shape was only 2s faster).
Centro was in great shape, and in a bit better shape than 3:49 too. If memory serves, he had terrible pacing for it. But he went out in the semis at the Olympics. He was in really good shape, but clearly past his prime. Meanwhile, Kessler just got bronze in the 1500i leading until the last 50m, and he's run 3:48i.
So Nuguse now is definitely better than Hocker, Nuguse, or Centro in 2021. Hocker now is definitely better than Hocker, Nuguse, or Centro in 2021. Kessler now is definitely better than Nuguse in 2021, probably better than Centro, and maybe better than Hocker. The top 3 are definitely better than the top 3 of 2021.
Also, I stand by everything I just said, but I was more talking about how it was a lot easier for college kids to strut up in 2021 and make the team than it will be this year. In 2021, the favorites for the team were the 31 year old reigning Olympic champ, the 19 year old NCAA champ, and the 21 year old NCAA 2nd placer. A great slightly past his prime, and 2 future greats just starting to realize their potential. In 2024, the favorites are a professional 24 year old who won a silver medal at indoor worlds and has run 3:43, a professional 22 year old who won a silver medal at indoor worlds and has run 3:48, and a professional 21 year old who won a bronze medal at indoor worlds, is reigning world road mile champ, and has run 3:48i.
Not saying the 2021 team was easy to make, but replace the top 2 college kids (Nuguse, Hocker) with the top 2 college kids now (Sahlman, Waskom) and they make the team.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Today on The Flag Club Pod, Theo Quax and Luis Grijalva (and to some extent Geordie Beamish) said they thought they'd have 6-7 NAU current students/alumni at the Olympics, with Aaron Las Heras (Spain, 7:37/13:16), Nico Young...
I am so curious as to what they are doing in training to produce such phenomenal results. Especially Nico. That range of 1:47 to 26:53 weeks apart is just incredible.
Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
I agree with you in many ways, but the reality is most 10k runners never attempt multiple 800's. Those stats are a little tainted. Don't get me wrong I do think Nico and Colin are going to be some of the best in the world. If you has to ask me why these two are running so well I have some thoughts:
They had it similar to Ingebrigtsen. They had the absolutely perfect set up. In HS they had one of the best coaches in the country setting them up for development at the elite level. Most HS kids don't have this advantage with that kind of coach and environment. It just doesn't exist. It's like running at an early age with a coach thinking about long term development to be the best possible in the world. I've heard Brosnan kept his Newbury Park team small and focused on the elites. He seemed to just piss off other HS coaches by not racing his athletes often, skipping state meets, going to altitude and doing things his way and not following the HS crowd. After HS going to NAU was a perfect transition for Colin and Nico. For some reason Brosnan and Smith have a handle on runners progression that meshes to achieve fast times. Mike Smith in a recent interview gave a lot of credit to Sean Brosnan and having his athletes prepared for elite college running physically and mentally. In HS they ran fast, but it seems it was about setting them up to handle the next high level. Most HS kids screw around and don’t get serious until they are in college. That was the opposite with these two and they are ahead of the curve .