I strongly disagree with your second paragraph, and everything you are writing about vulnerability, kick and solo runs…
My theory is that Cram, Kerr, Wightman and so on don’t know how to meet Jakob’s rude and over confident belief in his own project. And that they therefore artificially try to find breaches in Jakob’s logic, and that most of their arguments therefore are way too much steered by feelings (of offence) and therefore bs…
IMO Jakob is vulnerable with or without pacers in a couple of scenarios (and these are not mentioned by Cram/Kerr/Wightman!):
1. A scenario like the 2023 Bowerman mile (vs Nuguse). -I don’t think Jakob was 3 sec better than the American in this race. And he had jet lag, short pacing, wind on the back stretch, but first and foremost a strung out field with a very good athlete glued to his back. -Very dangerous situation, that also may or may not happen in a championship, but hopefully not to often…
2. A solo front run against contenders that are less than 1 sec behind in pb, and are good field runners (like f.ex Ovett), and get lucky and conserve energy glued to the rail and draft from others.
3. A slow sit and kick race -too much advantage for the fast 800m runners.
4. Having to deal with freak kickers (I don’t mean guys like Kerr, Wightman, Ovett, Coe, Lagat, Ngeny -none of them are / were better kickers than Jakob in a fast race!). Freak kickers are a seldom phenomenon -guys like Kincaid, Beamish and Nordås who can kick in a fast race even if they are on the limit of exhaustion (as long as the lactate isn’t to high). Well, Kincaid is obviously no threat to Jakob, but Beamish and especially Nordås might be (Beamish only running the steeple in Paris, I believe).
Conclusion: In WC 2022 Jakob did not lose to a kicker who was 2 sec slower in an all out 1500m. -I think Jakob was a 3.29 runner in that race that lost to another 3.29 runner who pb’ed and was the best runner that day.
In 2023 Jakob was, IMO, 2.5 sec better than Kerr. With some luck in the first bend I think Jakob could have soloed a 3.27 flat -Kerr could have gotten second place in 3.29 if he had stayed away from Jakob; glued to his back would have given a cracked Kerr in 3.31/2… I think Kerr in 2023 was a B-level 1500m runner -compared to Jakob (would have lost against a Lausanne fit Girma, and probably a healthy Nuguse, and a more experienced Nordås). Kerr was just the next in line that day (behind Jakob) -just the next guy…
El Guerrouj was troubled by the scenario described under my point 1: His problem in champs was that the field was so weak, except 2 exceptional guys (Lagat and Ngeny). -El Guerrouj obviously didn’t trust his own sit and kick ability, so what shouldn’t he do..? -A front run from him would immediately create a strung out field, where the two Kenyans / Kenyan of origin didn’t have to fight for positions (given the weak field). And could have all the advantages of drafting. And unlike Jakob the guys at his back had pb’s very similar to his own…
The scenario in the paragraph above wasn’t Jakob’s in 2023 -he was on a different level than the rest. Could only lose if he fell, ran like an idiot (which he didn’t) or was sick… But now the problem is this: Kerr has improved significantly, and also Nuguse has showed unexpected muscles. And what about his own injury, and all the other guys in progression..? Well, now we can’t rule out a vulnerability here, like the one El Guerrouj had…
3. A slow sit and kick race: Jakob (and guys like Kipsang and McSweyn) would never leave it to that…
4. Freak kickers in a fast race. Yes, maybe. But Nordås seems to be the only one.
Lastly: Jakob might be beaten in Paris. But not because of the things you, and Cram and Kerr and Wightman thinks..! Just my humble opinion…