Have seen a lot lately but none have been similar enough to my PRs.
I'm a 6'0" runner whose best event is the 3000, and I'm making my steeple debut tomorrow. My mile PR, converted from 1500, is about 4:10, my 5000 is in the 14:10s, and my 3000 is in the low 8:10s.
As part of a 5000 workout, I ran 2 miles (the full ~3218) in 9:02 feeling very comfortable, followed by 8x300 at 45 feeling mostly relaxed, and I routinely get up to 5-6 miles of total tempo in about 5:00 / mile. I think I'm a bit fitter than my PRs indicate as my 3000 had the second half nearly 10 seconds faster than the first half, and I've always been able to close in the 2:0x range for the final 800 of nearly any race, but I don't think I could run much faster than 14:00, low 8:00, or 4:05.
For someone running a likely solo 3000 steeple in good weather (55* and sub 5 mph wind), what could I aim for on debut? I feel comfortable over the normal barriers but I've only done 5 water jumps ever. I'd love to easily knock out a Q for regionals with a 8:50-8:51 but I'm not sure if it'd be attainable without having done much water work ever. And should I try to have a significant negative split again?