If you had to bet on a winner of the mens 1500 at NCAAs right now. Would you take a Washington athlete or the field?
Based on the recent championships it seems like Washington would be the favorite right? Especially with the returners they have coming back and the lack of a stand out threat amongst the rest of the field
this year, with Houser, Green, AND Waskom, yes I'd say a Washington victory is far more likely than not. That does NOT mean that a non-Washington victory is impossible though! big difference. Remember that
1: Waskom beat Cole Hocker at last year's US Championships 1500 final
2: Green was 0.21 seconds behind Hobbs Kessler at that same final
3: Houser just won back to back indoor mile titles, without help from his teammates the 2nd time
Having 3 different national champs skews things in your favor for sure. I think it also helps that the rest of the field doesn't seem to have a dominant favorite.
Essayi hasn't had much luck at championships and Sahlman, Martin, Khan are all still young. Throw in the Spencer or Basten and the other top finishers indoors and you have lots of options but no clear pick that you would feel good about versus Washingtons crew
I bet on Spencer indoors and it came down to a lean at the line. I still think he is better than the Washington trio, but the team tactics so far have given them the slight edge they've needed. I do think he'll get it outdoors though, he was much closer indoors this year and as a bigger guy it's a lot harder for him to navigate an indoor race (like Waskom, who struggled much more). Just hard to bet against a guy who's run 3:31 with great wheels, lots of experience, and good tactical acumen. I think if he doesn't win though it'll definitely be a Washington guy, and it's probably slightly more likely that one of the three has a perfect race to win than it is that Spencer takes it (even if he's the individual favorite).
I'd probably place odds like this:
25% Spencer
20% Waskom
15% Green
10% Houser
10% Basten
20% someone else