Tsige Duguma (ETH) Backs Up World Indoors 800m Gold with 1:57.73 wire-to-wire at African Games

Awsi Dooger wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

That’s not often how the 800 works (burning the “kickers” with an aggressively fast opening lap). If Hodgkinson goes out in 55 it may work against her, being relatively closer to her all-out 400 and voiding her strength advantage. Her best chance is probably that she goes like 56.9 + 58.0 while the others go too hard too early and come back to her in the last 150.

Those fractions have no chance. At 58 she might as well walk off the track. It would literally be last place. Keely and Mu went through barely above 56 in Eugene Diamond League finals and Mu held on sub 1:55. The races play out same with without a pacer. Mu and Moraa won't allow it to be slow. And both of them won't collapse. Both will likely be in superior condition this year.

Keely is really in a predicament. As good as she is, there isn't a logical strategy toward victory. Moraa has repeatedly demonstrated that she won't allow Keely to pass her on the second lap. It plays out that way time and again. It doesn't matter what stage of the second lap. Every time Keely moves outside, Moraa accelerates slightly and maintains advantage. Deep in the stretch Keely is exhausted physically and mentally as Moraa draws clear. Moraa did the same thing against Kipyegon in the Kenyan 800 championships two years ago.

Consequently Keely now realizes she has to lead Moraa at 400. That Diamond League final was the best race of her career, even though she narrowly fell short to Mu. I think she has to attempt the same tactics this year after devoting all offseason to a different level.

Duguma is very interesting but she's still 2 seconds shy of legitimate contention. We'll see if she can find those 2 seconds. As I mentioned a few weeks ago the 2 minute barrier is now an old stale reference point. Twice as many women now go under that barrier as pre pandemic. It's the reason frontrunners like Rose and Werro are totally thrown off their game in the ultra elite races. They want to go to the front but their preferred pace isn't fast enough to get there. Not close. They get shuffled back and steadily give way. The reference point needs to be lowered to 1:58.

Duguma is older than those two and has run faster. At this point she likes to go to the front and settle the pace. Reekie allowed that at world indoors. The other named players would laugh at that tactic.

I expect Mu to prevail again. With a prodigy the little details take care of themselves.

High hopes wrote:

wiederganger wrote:

I agree it's in Hodgkinson's best interest to get faster over 400m, however, remember that in both Eugene 22 and Budapest 23, her final 200m was faster than Mu's, so her closing speed is not an issue. Also note, there are a couple of women higher up the world all-time list than Keely with slower PBs over 400m (Ceplak & Jelimo, with Melinte slower over 600m - but no stated 400m PB)

For me, Hodgkinson's problem is her 400m-600m portion of the race, this is where she let's others get too far ahead (the DL final in 2023 being an exception). If she does not want to lead, then she needs to be closer to the lead.

Let's also see how Duguma does off a fast pace as well. On paper she is still quite far behind the others in terms of PBs.

That's a good point, we need to see Duguma in a DL. Hodgkinson's preferred race is to go through in 57/58 and run a slight negative split. I'm not sure if Duguma has had to run with that yet. Reekie messed up in Glasgow by letting it go so slow but the Big Three are a different challenge altogether. Let's see how Duguma shapes up against them.