Big-2 now Big-4 for Women's NCAA XC Title

The course is not hilly. They abandoned the back part of the course years ago.

I think FL will have enough low scorers to contend with OSU and BYU for 3rd and 4th despite the weaker FL back end. But I see a big gap between NC St and those 3, with NAU likely well ahead of NC St. Roughly NAU-85, NC St-110, the other 3 - 200 ish. BTW a new entrant into top 7 might have merged - WA. NC St needs to upgrade 5th scorer from ~50 to ~25 have any chance unless NAU falters.

Really nice post. Agree Valby and NAU are favorites, but Touhy and Pack remain the main contenders.

The battle for 3rd and 4th will be just as good with BYU, OSU, Georgetown, Florida, Stanford and Washington all in the mix.

Nc st showed that at least Tyynismaa and Bush can be in the front 5 and Quarzo ran her best ever xc race to make a claim for #7. NAU's advantage is that they are truly 7+ deep, while state is a bit uncertain.

Washington did what the Oregon men were supposed to do and came out of nowhere with milers to win the last PAC. Florida and OSU are good, but with 0 margin for error with only 5 scorers. BYU now really 7 deep too, but will need some pb performances to be a real threat.

The only thing we'll learn at regionals is a bit more about health, as all these teams can cruise to qualify. They will all get in on points too, even if they miss the auto spot.

Tyynismaa dropped out after 5k because of cramping. But, before that she was packing up with Quarzo, not near in the top 5. If she is #6 and Quarzo is #7 then NCst is in trouble for top 3. Florida, BYU could upset them

I don't see that unless something goes wrong in top 4. I think top 4 can score 65 points w Tuohy/Chmiel/Stephens/Bush. Put someone else at 60-70 gets them 130-140. I think 4/5 of FL will score that or more and 3/4/5 of BYU will score close to that. If NC St top 4 score more like 80-90 things get a lot closer.

Bush was #4 and Quarzo was #5 at acc, so AT was right in there. If they roll out:

Touhy

Chmiel

Stephens

Bush

Quarzo

Hartman

Tyynismaa

they are in pretty good shape with enormous upside potential in Bush and AT. Risk the 'freshmen' Stephens and Hartman (long season, might want to rest both at reg) and inconsistent Quarzo.

NAUs only risk is dealing with pressure as they will bring 7, who can all be top 5.

Yeah but Tyynismaa didn't finish the race. At the point at which she dropped out (5k) she was in 7th, Quarzo was 6th. Quarzo had a strong final k, but it isn't clear Tyynismaa is fit enough to be top 5.

I agree though she has tremendous upside so maybe we will see more improvement at regionals. Maybe she can borrow Valby's cross training plan to recover quickly from injury lol.

I am confused why people are downvoting this? The largest hill on the course is only 25 feet. The course was realigned 10ish years ago.

Interesting exercise: big sky was a 5k race and acc had a 5k split. I know times on different courses don't compare, but just for fun.

Touhy 16:19, Chmiel 16:20, Stearns 16:21, Stephens 16:35, Reiss 16:44, Upshaw 16:46, Larkin 16:47, Hartman 16:48, Bush 16:50, Grice 16:51 Smee 16:53, Quarzo 16:53, Tyynismaa 16:53, Moore 17:08.

Scoring. Nau 3 5 6 7 10 = 31

Nc st 1 2 4 8 9 = 24

This proves nothing, but does show how close this can be all the way thru #7.

On Tyynismaa and Bush. AT is a freak prodigy who has been third at NCAA. A week ago she wasn't even running, now she is right there. Bush is a 2x all- American. Similarly, Ruby Smee has upside. If any of these 3 can pop at nats vs conference, they can be the MVP for the winner.

They need to bring back that section. The hills and bridges are awesome

I didn't realize she had started back so recently. She certainly has the capability to improve quickly and be in their top 5.

Very curious how the individual title dynamic could shape the team races

Will NC state just do the same thing as last year, where Tuohy stays with the big pack to minimize the risk of blowing up and then starts the chase at about 3500? Fl is a factor this year. When Tuohy took off last year the rest of the field started to string out more.

Or will some of the runners (Tuohy,Lemgole) take off with Valby?

If we see the field string out early, not sure which teams benefit the most.

I meant that Tyynismaa wasn't running in the minds of forecasters. She's been running, but acc was her opener.

My guess is that this yr Tuohy just goes right with Valby. Chmiel can rally the troops if needed in the peloton. Tuohy won't crash and burn and it's really a 2 woman race with maybe a few others who give it a shot

Missoula is at 3,200 feet so consider that and the fact NAU swept 1-7

Agree and the pack went on to run another mile to the finish. For me comp only shows that they are close right thru #7.

Stearns and Reiss can be right with Chmiel. 3-6 for both teams in a 20 second window, so just a few seconds here or there will be the difference.

Thx for update . . . was not aware of the change . . . remember attending the 2000 ice-bowl championships at IO State . . . temps down to -15 deg F . . . when course was fairly new and quite hilly.

Much obliged for the kind words.

However, still having trouble seeing my way past the aforementioned Big-4 to other teams contending for the podium.

Nuttycombe results speak volumes . . . only podium-contending teams missing were BYU & OK State . . . 1/NAU 52 . . . 2/NC State 95 . . . 3/Georgetown 208 . . . 4/Stanford 227 . . . 13/WA 383.

NC State much improved now . . . with one AA runner who DNF'd at Nuttycombe back in the lineup . . . and another AA runner who DNF'd at ACCs likely ready to go at Regionals.

Plug those 2 at their present levels of fitness into the Nuttycombe lineup . . . and NC State's 26 & 50 points from their 4th & 5th runners comes down substantially . . . certainly much closer to NAU's 4th & 5th runners who placed 12th & 18th . . . not unreasonable for NC State to score in the 50s or 60s if Nuttycombe were to be held next weekend.

Regarding BYU & OK State . . . 35 & 39 points respectively at Big-12s . . . with OK State having the winner with 2 others in the top-5 . . . while BYU had all 7 runners in the top-14 with a 1-7 spread of only 38 seconds.

Pre-Nat results: 1/BYU 32 . . . 2/AR 90

SEC results: 1/FL 49 . . . 2/AR 59

So . . . based upon Nuttycombe, Pre-Nats and the conference meets . . . BYU is well ahead of FL & AR and slightly ahead of OK State . . . while NAU & NC State are well ahead of Stanford, WA and all other teams not mentioned.

What stands out the most, however, is the eye test: 52 points for NAU at Nuttycombe against a field virtually as good as the NCAA field will be . . . plug in BYU & OK State & the current NC State squad . . . that number rises . . . but only into the 70s or 80s.

Since NCAAs expanded to 31 teams and 255 runners in 1998, there has never been 2 or more teams scoring under 100 points in the same meet . . . the closest came in 2019 when AR scored 96 to BYU's 102.

Fully expect that record to be broken in 3 weeks.

For women? I assume, since this is the focus of the thread.

IIRC, the men have had two under 100 points.

NAU and OSU in 2022

all true but FL now has Mazza-Downie back in their lineup. Did not appear quite full strength at SEC but just beat Thorner and Wilson who were 30 & 38 at Nuttycombe. Probably would drop their Nuttycombe result by 150 points as they scored their 5th at 177. I think BYU/OSU/Fl pretty close. As of now I'd say NAU is 75-90, NC St 95-130, the next 3 close to 200