Hi all, let's sit back and enjoy the ride for one of the most intriguing multiday attempts of the century. People have been cantering across the States for over 100 years, several thousand of them, with about 500 formally documented, and 42 days the best by far by Pete Kostelnick.
Paul is going for a world record by some 5% with his 40 day goal. 75 mile days are extremely uncomfortable in the 6 day race [450 miles] which is closed circuit on the flat, so it simply doesn't compute what he's claiming especially as he has struggled so badly in all big formal efforts.
But this is how it's done these days: claim astronomic feats of brilliance, BEFORE YOU DO IT, which is turn attracts a quarter of a million social media followers, much TV and press, and simply eye-watering amounts of sponsorship. Hoka have given him 18 pairs of shoes, when six would have been more than ample. His headtorches alone run to $1600. The RV is out of this world.
This will all be fascinating on so many levels. I absolutely don't think PJ is going to shark it , and his training loads have been laudable - around six times as much as WG. And he is going to be tracked.
We can do like for like comparisons with WG here and see how the HRs differentiate.
One has not heard the words "Pete Kostelnick" come out of PJs mouth once in the last few months. To me it's remarkable that he doesn't pay more homage to what is clearly one of the finest and most pioneering pieces of multiday running in history, but my feeling is that PK is not quaking in his boots at this dart at his legacy.
We shall see. I sent Paul a detailed prediction of his attempt a few weeks ago which I'll share anon. He dismissed it with sarcasm and some withering rebukes, but on the whole is a lot more polite and less vile than WG and his crew. I wish PJ well, and think he has the clear ability to go 50-56 days. But 40 is a whole different ball game - like a 51 second 400 metre runner saying he's going for 40.
We kick off in 6 hours. Multidaying - don't ya' just love it?!
This thread was originally titled, "Incredible development in the $612,000 Transcon Goodge run, currently ongoing" but the new title is more descriptive. The description of the run is here.
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Looks like strava did a story on him.
And it looks like he has started running.
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22 miles in just under 4 hours. Although playing devil's advocate in Paul's favor, all the street crossings through LA are a huge pain.
I understand the media reasons for starting at 8am, but realistically starting at 5am or even earlier on day one would have helped immensely I feel like.
Not that I think it is going to matter in the end. I'm most curious about where the point of realization will be. I have a feeling he will push to hit his 75 miles today no matter how long it takes, as failing to hit the goal on day 1 will be an immensely discouraging hurdle.
This post was edited 11 seconds after it was posted.40 -
3 days.
I think he will break on day 3.Obviously that guy has no clue what 75 miles per day means.
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Ultrarunningkid wrote:
22 miles in just under 4 hours. Although playing devil's advocate in Paul's favor, all the street crossings through LA are a huge pain.
I understand the media reasons for starting at 8am, but realistically starting at 5am or even earlier on day one would have helped immensely I feel like.
Not that I think it is going to matter in the end. I'm most curious about where the point of realization will be. I have a feeling he will push to hit his 75 miles today no matter how long it takes, as failing to hit the goal on day 1 will be an immensely discouraging hurdle.
Yes, I didn't get that. He speaks of 0330 starts, so he can get his 75 here, but only by quitting at around 55 and then making up the rest the next morning, between 0330 and 0800. It's all rather jarring and impure.
If he tries to get 75 before bed he has no time to recover before the alarm goes off. And then there is a 2nd big problem. Say he gets to 75 by 0800 tomorrow, he will be starting "day 2" with 4.5 hours and 20 miles of running in his legs, which is an eye-watering handicap from day 1.60 -
It doesn't matter when he does the 75 miles in a 24 hour period. A day has only 24 hours and going east wards some days will just have 23.
The record attempt will be out of the question in a few days. If he survives that, he might be able to move along with 45 -50 miles per day which is still a LOT.60 -
Is he wearing a tracker?
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I read that and couldn't tell if he is wearing the tracker or it is in the support vehicle.
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it's all a big improvement on WG, but the tracker gets very stuck, and just jumps every 20 minutes or more. So it's tricky to know exactly what's going on but it currently reads 32.1 miles at a run time of 5:53, so that's a very slow last 5.9 miles if he's claiming a 4:18 marathon. That's no way to fire off 75 mile days.
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He is already getting a lot slower. 32 miles after 6 hours is about 5.33 mph.
That leaves him with 43 miles in the next 8 hours or so. Of course that will not happen.
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I wouldn't place any bets on making it, let alone beating the record. However, he will be passing right by my house (less than one mile away) as he transits Arizona. So I plan to keep an eye on his progress and maybe go run a couple of hours along with him while he's passing through. He's overoptimistic, but doesn't look like a fraud. We'll see.
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Yep, clearly dedicated and the real deal. Good for a 51-52 day Transcon, which would be one of the best in history; but he wants the be THE best... by 5%.
This 2nd 25 mile tranche is not going to be another 4:10 or so... his 25 mile splits will be the best way to track this effort.40 -
I'm fairly skeptical of the plan to maintain a 10-12 minute per mile pace while jogging (so not counting breaks).
10:30min/mile pace puts 75 miles a day at 13 hours of running. Assuming a 1 hour break total (which seems incredibly low) that means there are only 10 hours the rest of the day for eating, muscle care, showering and sleeping. At that point even a small amount of breaks starts eating into what I would consider an already squeezed rest amount per day.
12:00min/mile is 15 hours of running per day, so say goodbye to getting more than 7 hours of sleep in my opinion. There's just no way the legs can recover a sufficient amount on that little rest.
Something like a 9:30min/mile pace feels like it should be attainable for someone with the fitness to do this challenge. Sure you could always fall back to 10:30 or 11 minute miles, but I'd rather train so that I did have a slower gear to fall back on in the latter half of the challenge.
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47 miles in 8:45 so far. Just 28 miles to go. That could take him a good 5+ hours.
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Look, stuff happens, and based on the pace it is arguably a good call to stop at mile 62 on day 1. Might as well cut the losses, get a good night sleep and make it up in the future. You don't win on day 1, but you can surely loose on day 1.
However, If you post videos daily for months on end about "running 75 miles a day for 40 days", you really should make sure you can do 75 miles on day one.
Seriously, this week he literally said "Even if I feel good I'm not going to go over 75 miles per day until I'm past the Rockies".
I'd expect him to rally and hit 75 miles tomorrow, especially once he hits the flats past Desert Hot Springs, but I think that will likely be the last rally before we see a pretty rapid downward spiral.
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An intriguing first day, but so dumb not to clearly state to his disciples that there's an 0330 to 0800 window to make up the missing miles. His comments are awash with the affronted and the befuddled.
We can compare Kostelnick, Balenger, Goodge and Johnson each day - a fascinating insight into how this all goes down. All their paces are super quick here, and HRs high and rock steady with no "malfunctions", which is the only defence RB and WG have given for their 105-110s incoming soon. WG a tad lower here, because he did an absurdly quick marathon, then just cruised for the last 20 of the day with a massive positive split.
Columns are mileage, pace per km and HR
PK 80.8 5:54 145
RB 45:8 6:25 152
WG 51.8 6:19 132
PJ 63.2 6:12 147 [will be added to]
The gulf in class between the middle two and outer two is clear, as is PK over PJ. PK has 17.6 more miles, at a quicker pace, at a lower HR. He's gonna be a tricky guy to take down. RB and WG about to see their paces fall off a cliff after their Day 1 honeymoon.20 -
Hey, just had a look at the tracker via the link, is there a reason the max pace would be 3:53 / Mi pace?
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Probably just doing a little sprint for fun for some reason
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The stats section on the PJ tracker site look, including the max speed, look to be taken from the strava trace but are funky in places.
Strava has the max elevation at ~476m, PJ tracker site at 476 ft.
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