It depends if he gets busted or not first. He told the Magic Wizard that he does very basic, simple training. Consider that before EPO in the 90's, no Kenyan had ran faster than 2:09 (as per World Athletics). Bikila ran 120 MPW back in the 60's for years with high altitude track speed workouts every week thrown in. Probably had the best supplements the Abyssinian Emperor could provide too. His career pb was 2:13.
The mods have decided that a response to your comment is off-limits, that it is a "thread-derailing" post. We can't raise the likelihood of doping being a factor in the improvement of a top Kenyan runner. They obviously haven't been following events.
Is it even possible to talk about Kelvin without bringing up doping? Seriously, out of nowhere with no coach runs 2:01. From a country that has a constant parade of drug busts. Two today even.
On topic, yes I think he breaks 2:00. For the reason above. Then what?
Of course as one of the few sub 2:02 runners ever, Kiptum's prospects at breaking 2 are far better than most humans. That does not mean that it is a probable outcome. The majority of super-quick debutantes never really reach that level again, so that's the first thing to look out for - it's possible that Kiptum will already show frailty and inconsistency in London, and then quickly recede from relevance.
If on the other hand he has a good showing in London, we can begin operating under the assumption that he will a nontrivial career, and may have a shot at lowering his personal best. Even in that case, dropping two minutes off a time already that quick is astronomically difficult and unlikely. Eliud's 2:01:09 seems to show that something in the neighborhood of 2:00:30-50 is humanly possible, and so it is possible that Kiptum has something like that level of talent. Still, I wouldn't hold my breath for him to break 2:01, let alone 2:00. I won't break out exhaustive stats now, but you've got to remember that a good many sub 2:04 runners only ever do it once. PRing at this level is not a common occurrence, unless you're Eliud Kipchoge. Kiptum would do well to run sub 2:03 or even sub 2:04 ever again...
All time runners with 2 or more sub 2:04 performances:
Wilson Kipsang (2:03:58, 2:03:42, 2:03:23, 2:03:13)
That's Eliud with 6, Wilson with 4, and 6 other runners with 2 each. The total number of sub 2:04 performances ever is 42 = 6 + 4 + 2*6 + 1*20. Of the 28 sub 2:04 performers all time, 20 managed it just once, 6 twice. Now Tola, Kipruto, Kipchoge, and perhaps Legesse are still active with good to non-zero chances of getting more sub 2:04 performances. Many of the other sub 2:04 runners are of course relatively recent and still active, so thinks will inevitably shift. Still, no matter how you slice it, running under 2:04 even just twice puts you in the company of eight or so.
And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:03: only one man has ever managed that more than once.
Lol if forgot the internet is mean - relax man. It's just always seemed to me that it's not the shoes that make for a great performance, it's the runner. That was the accepted wisdom until 2017 or whenever the whole Kipchoge thing started to blow up. My viewpoint would have been accepted without argument had not Kipchoge been such a phenomenal runner. Maybe the real revolution here is Eliud Kipchoge resetting expectations.
But hey no biggie, my $39 asics gel venture 7s are on the way from Amazon as we speak so watch out
I don't think there's nearly the difference between those vs modern shoes, and modern shoes vs super shoes. Certainly the gear has some bearing on the result, I just don't know why we started crediting shoes with victories and shoes with world records.
Also Elijah the Tishbite was likely the first under two hours in 9th century BC. Outran Ahab's chariot. 20mph conservative chariot speed gives you a 1:18 high marathon. Although it is possible that Mt Carmel to Jezreel was closer to 17 miles. But if it was more like 30, then he's got it in the bag. Definitely got the half record.
I know, "but that's just the Bible!" Again, viewpoints that the vast majority of reasonable Americans would have believed in the past are now almost laughable to the enlightened modern ear.
It's ok though, I know we are much smarter now than we have ever been.
I will now refrain from posting for another three years and go watch our devout Catholic president argue passionately for the slaughter of children :)
Of course as one of the few sub 2:02 runners ever, Kiptum's prospects at breaking 2 are far better than most humans. That does not mean that it is a probable outcome. The majority of super-quick debutantes never really reach that level again, so that's the first thing to look out for - it's possible that Kiptum will already show frailty and inconsistency in London, and then quickly recede from relevance.
If on the other hand he has a good showing in London, we can begin operating under the assumption that he will a nontrivial career, and may have a shot at lowering his personal best. Even in that case, dropping two minutes off a time already that quick is astronomically difficult and unlikely. Eliud's 2:01:09 seems to show that something in the neighborhood of 2:00:30-50 is humanly possible, and so it is possible that Kiptum has something like that level of talent. Still, I wouldn't hold my breath for him to break 2:01, let alone 2:00. I won't break out exhaustive stats now, but you've got to remember that a good many sub 2:04 runners only ever do it once. PRing at this level is not a common occurrence, unless you're Eliud Kipchoge. Kiptum would do well to run sub 2:03 or even sub 2:04 ever again...
All time runners with 2 or more sub 2:04 performances:
Wilson Kipsang (2:03:58, 2:03:42, 2:03:23, 2:03:13)
That's Eliud with 6, Wilson with 4, and 6 other runners with 2 each. The total number of sub 2:04 performances ever is 42 = 6 + 4 + 2*6 + 1*20. Of the 28 sub 2:04 performers all time, 20 managed it just once, 6 twice. Now Tola, Kipruto, Kipchoge, and perhaps Legesse are still active with good to non-zero chances of getting more sub 2:04 performances. Many of the other sub 2:04 runners are of course relatively recent and still active, so thinks will inevitably shift. Still, no matter how you slice it, running under 2:04 even just twice puts you in the company of eight or so.
And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:03: only one man has ever managed that more than once.
It’s a pleasure to respond in this debate. I have Kelvin pencilled in at fourth in London. I just think, like Legese, his times will fluctuate between courses like London and either Berlin or Valencia.
Of course as one of the few sub 2:02 runners ever, Kiptum's prospects at breaking 2 are far better than most humans. That does not mean that it is a probable outcome. The majority of super-quick debutantes never really reach that level again, so that's the first thing to look out for - it's possible that Kiptum will already show frailty and inconsistency in London, and then quickly recede from relevance.
If on the other hand he has a good showing in London, we can begin operating under the assumption that he will a nontrivial career, and may have a shot at lowering his personal best. Even in that case, dropping two minutes off a time already that quick is astronomically difficult and unlikely. Eliud's 2:01:09 seems to show that something in the neighborhood of 2:00:30-50 is humanly possible, and so it is possible that Kiptum has something like that level of talent. Still, I wouldn't hold my breath for him to break 2:01, let alone 2:00. I won't break out exhaustive stats now, but you've got to remember that a good many sub 2:04 runners only ever do it once. PRing at this level is not a common occurrence, unless you're Eliud Kipchoge. Kiptum would do well to run sub 2:03 or even sub 2:04 ever again...
All time runners with 2 or more sub 2:04 performances:
Wilson Kipsang (2:03:58, 2:03:42, 2:03:23, 2:03:13)
That's Eliud with 6, Wilson with 4, and 6 other runners with 2 each. The total number of sub 2:04 performances ever is 42 = 6 + 4 + 2*6 + 1*20. Of the 28 sub 2:04 performers all time, 20 managed it just once, 6 twice. Now Tola, Kipruto, Kipchoge, and perhaps Legesse are still active with good to non-zero chances of getting more sub 2:04 performances. Many of the other sub 2:04 runners are of course relatively recent and still active, so thinks will inevitably shift. Still, no matter how you slice it, running under 2:04 even just twice puts you in the company of eight or so.
And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:03: only one man has ever managed that more than once.
Bud, I'm sorry I genuinely liked your analysis. But I HAVE TO downvote. Everyone underestimated this guy.
2:01:25
He split 59:47 on HIS SECOND HALF MARATHON SPLIT. That was 4 seconds faster than Kipchoge's Opening Half in his 2:01:09 in Berlin.
Kipchoge has never dropped Two 2:01 Marathons back-to-back. With a Time Span of 4.5 months to train.
Kiptum is 23 years old. The Two Hour Marathon won't survive another Two years.
Of course as one of the few sub 2:02 runners ever, Kiptum's prospects at breaking 2 are far better than most humans. That does not mean that it is a probable outcome. The majority of super-quick debutantes never really reach that level again, so that's the first thing to look out for - it's possible that Kiptum will already show frailty and inconsistency in London, and then quickly recede from relevance.
If on the other hand he has a good showing in London, we can begin operating under the assumption that he will a nontrivial career, and may have a shot at lowering his personal best. Even in that case, dropping two minutes off a time already that quick is astronomically difficult and unlikely. Eliud's 2:01:09 seems to show that something in the neighborhood of 2:00:30-50 is humanly possible, and so it is possible that Kiptum has something like that level of talent. Still, I wouldn't hold my breath for him to break 2:01, let alone 2:00. I won't break out exhaustive stats now, but you've got to remember that a good many sub 2:04 runners only ever do it once. PRing at this level is not a common occurrence, unless you're Eliud Kipchoge. Kiptum would do well to run sub 2:03 or even sub 2:04 ever again...
All time runners with 2 or more sub 2:04 performances:
Wilson Kipsang (2:03:58, 2:03:42, 2:03:23, 2:03:13)
That's Eliud with 6, Wilson with 4, and 6 other runners with 2 each. The total number of sub 2:04 performances ever is 42 = 6 + 4 + 2*6 + 1*20. Of the 28 sub 2:04 performers all time, 20 managed it just once, 6 twice. Now Tola, Kipruto, Kipchoge, and perhaps Legesse are still active with good to non-zero chances of getting more sub 2:04 performances. Many of the other sub 2:04 runners are of course relatively recent and still active, so thinks will inevitably shift. Still, no matter how you slice it, running under 2:04 even just twice puts you in the company of eight or so.
And notice how the list would change if we tightened it to sub 2:03: only one man has ever managed that more than once.
Bud, I'm sorry I genuinely liked your analysis. But I HAVE TO downvote. Everyone underestimated this guy.
2:01:25
He split 59:47 on HIS SECOND HALF MARATHON SPLIT. That was 4 seconds faster than Kipchoge's Opening Half in his 2:01:09 in Berlin.
Kipchoge has never dropped Two 2:01 Marathons back-to-back. With a Time Span of 4.5 months to train.
Kiptum is 23 years old. The Two Hour Marathon won't survive another Two years.