Good plan for trot 5k pacing?

Aim for 21. 20 may cause you to “bonk”

It's hard to say. Sub 20 is 6:26 per mile pace. Have you done any work at that pace?

I haven't no. yesterday was pretty much the only time I went sub 7 min except for my strides which I do at mile PR (haven't trialed it in a while) of 6:15. Other than that any "faster" stuff has just been my threshold work.

that's what I am thinking. the funny kicker is like 2 months ago I bought myself a pair of vaporflys as a "carrot" to hold in front of me for this goal. They can't leave the box until I break 20 ha.

There will always be more races for me to crack 20 I guess. I haven't been doing too much speed stuff because I have a half in mid december I am trying to break 1:45 for so it's been mainly threshold and easy volume.

So you basically don't do any speedwork except 1 mini-workout 3 days out?

Sub 20 aint happening in that case. If you're serious about improving your 5k you need a lot more intervals.

lol yup basically. I have been building for a half and figured why not sign up for a trot to see how I have progressed aerobically as I am candidly challenged in that department right now.

Need to hear stuff like this so I don't go and crap out at like 2 thinking "well my fitness might be at this level"

I guess I'd approach pacing in one of two ways, if the weather conditions permit:

a) Go out conservatively [maybe 6:35ish-45ish pace] and really try to blast the final net downhill mile; or

b) Go out at 6:26 pace and hope that that last downhill mile can carry you though to a sub 20:00 even if the wheels start to fall off a little bit.

Option b is more risky, imo.

Go down to your local track and run a 3k time trial @goal pace.

option a will likely be my plan regardless of finish time. If I can get even splits at 6:45 I would call that a massive win all things considered based on my very limited racing experience. I should probably just take breaking 20 out of my mind now as I have enjoyed the process of building up mileage and would hate hurting myself trying to do more than what my current fitness calls for

Most people hammer the first 1/4 mile of 5Ks way too hard. Whatever you do, start a lot slower than you think for the first 2 minutes, and then slowly start passing everyone. 6:50 pace seems about right... you'll be able to negative split if you have more in the tank. But for Fs sakes don't run the first 1/4 mile at sub-6 pace and then spend the rest of the race in oxygen debt.

Do you guys realize the 5k is an aerobic event ?

On a personal note:

I've just set a 10 k PR at age 48 without ever running 10k pace except for occasional 30 second strides. I have done 30mpw of mostly easy running for several months. Max half an hour at marathon pace every week.

If TS is aerobically capable of running sub-20, he will, regardless of having run at this speed or not.

Go for it, shameless hobby jogger !

yeah this will be a great test for how my aerobic capacity has progressed. I like how you put it - if I am capable I am capable. It's a good exploratory mission for me. Hopefully the race day adrenaline, a fresh pair of endorphin speed 2s, and a caffeine maurten gel will help my case!

OP here. Thanks for everyone knocking some sense into me. I would have for sure gone out the gate way quick. Below were my splits, Strava had me at a 5k time of 20:02 - crazy stoked.

1k - 4:12

2k - 4:12

3k - 4:05

4k - 3:53

5k - 3:44

have a great thanksgiving everyone and GGMF!