What can Kiplimo do in the marathon?

Take note that it doesn't mean when you're good at half marathon it'll also translate to you being good at the full marathon.

took the note

we will see in a few years?

Kiplimo (7:26/12:48/26:33/57:31) definitely has the raw power and engine to approach 2:01, 2:00. Compare Bekele (7:25/12:37/26:17 ---> 2:01:41) and Eliud (7:27/12:46/26:49 ---> 2:01:09). Moreover, his competition record on the roads at the half distance, which is considerably better than his already very impressive track performances, predict well for his marathon prospects.

However, as we all know, the marathon is a different beast. One simply can't predict. It seems likely that sub-12:50, sub-26:50 is necessary for a sub 2:02 clocking, but we only have the two data points and these track performances are of course far from sufficient to guarantee much of anything beyond sub 2:10 over 26.2.

Even Cheptegei seems hard-pressed to produce anything on the roads equaling the majesty of his 26:11/12:35 efforts.

We also still don't really have a good sense of just how remarkable and anomalous Eliud really is. He has four of the top five performances ever: 2:01:09, 2:01:39, 2:02:37, 2:02:40. Legesse is next at 2:02:48, Geremew 2:02:55, Kimetto and Ekiru 2:02:57, Chebet & Cherono 2:03:0x. Eliud is literally 1:39 faster than any other *mortal*, and given the nature of his 2:01:09 it seems likely that he's more than 2min ahead of the rest.

Now, the fact that an injury-prone and inconsistent Bekele was able to produce 2:01:41, and so be (somewhat) within the same neighborhood of Eliud, gives slight evidence that he is not totally anomalous. But this is far from much consolation - all it tells us is that someone of 12:37/26:17 ability is at least likely to be physically capable of sub2:02, and being in the neighborhood of Eliud on a perfect day. But so far there's only one other human in that category- Cheptegei - who's prospects at 26.2 are yet to appear fully bright.

Anyways, I personally would hopefully predict that Kiplimo will end up well under 2:02, probably leaving with a 2:00:xx PR if not being the first to go under. But I'm just trying to make the case for caution - he could very well end up with something like 2:02:30, itself an absolutely prodigious performance, as his peak. There's just scant evidence that anyone but Eliud can be reliably predicted to break 2:02 ever again.

The last thing that I'll say is I remember in the 'old' days when Mutai, Kipsang, etc were running 58 high, and could get this to 2:03 or thereabouts. Being generous and saying 58:30 ---> 2:03:00, we would have 57:30 ---> 2:01, so again there's no shame in assessing that Kiplimo has 2:01 ability, it's just that the inconspicuous arrow "--->" is hiding a multitude of difficult and unknown factors.

As a small coda, one of course has to bear in mind Tadese, and more recently Kamworor and Kandie. Kamworor 58:01, a veritable king of the half-marathon, and as of yet nothing beyond 2:05:23 in quick Valencia. Kandie with a mind-shattering 57:32, and yet stepped up to a 9th place 2:13 finish in NYC. Of course this cannot represent his ceiling, but it just goes to show that even taking a 57:30-58:30 guy to 2:04 is no joke, no sure-thing.

With a marathon mission he can be the first man sub 2 . Theoreticaly he would be able to run at least 2 x 57:31 + 5 min = 2:00:02 ! And to his advantage he is a very good solo runner.

It shows that Mutai's 2:05 at NYC is no joke, that Kipchoge might have trouble with that markt there, and that Salazar on today's Berlin course would have run the 2:05-2:06 he mentioned a time or two.

How many Marathons have Kamworor and Kandie run? You cannot critique their first few attempts like that. As for Tadese, he is on record stating he did his Marathons without every taking on a gel, electrolyte or sip of water, so his Marathon PB is not truly representative either.

I understand your point but the examples you've chosen have huge caveats.

Kamworor has run ten marathons. I'm still hopeful he'll run much faster over the distance in the future, but I think we can safely conclude he hasn't taken like a fish to water.

Kandie of course has only ran the once in NYC, so it's far too early to be sure of him. But still, you can contrast his relatively disastrous 2:13 showing in NYC to Eliud debuting in 2:05:30 at Hamburg 2013, back when that was still quite fast. Or Bekele with a strong 2:05:04 in Paris the next year (2014). Even Kamworor had a promising start, 2:06:12 at Berlin 2012, but it took him ten years to better that time, not for lack of trying (he ran 2:06 in Berlin 2012, 2013, 2014). In fairness after that it's been NYC until Valencia last year, so not a huge shock we've only just seen a 2:05 from him, but still it's remarkable to think he actually debuted *before* Eliud. I think he may have just been pacing and gone on to finish that year, but I don't recall exactly.

Anyways Tadese I can't comment on, other than one way or another the marathon didn't work.

Jemal Yimer, a promising 58:33 prospect, has results of Valencia 2020 DNF, Boston 2021 2:10 for 3rd, Boston 2022 2:08 for 8th. Again, no indications that a sub 2:03 is imminent.

Kiptum (58:18) tested positive before he could debut in London several years ago.

Abel Kipchumba (58:07 Valencia 2021) has run a 2:15 in Prague (coming before his 58:07) and just this weekend was 5th in Berlin in 2:06:49, although he did open in 61:25.

I haven't exhaustively checked every name, but I'm pretty sure there isn't actually a sub 58:30 guy with a sub 2:05 to his name. Of course some of the young 57 guns (Kiplimo, Kipruto, Mutiso) are yet to go for the full distance, and of course Kandie has not shown his potential there either. There's Kiptanui (58:42/2:05:47) and Kitwara (58:48/2:04:28) and then you get your Mutai's and Kipsang and so forth at 58:50+. Of course there's Wanjiru 58:33/2:06:32 OR, I should've mentioned before. Seifu Tura (58:36/2:04:29).

Anyways it's fairly compelling that ~58:30 ability puts you in the range of 2:04/2:05 being very possible, and I imagine 57:30 similarly makes the 2:01-2:03 range possible. But these possibilities aren't easy to realize and you never really know how someone will look at the full distance. So far we've got 57:30-58:33 guys (Kandie, Kamworor, Kipchumba, Tadese, Yimer) who don't have anything under 2:05 to show for it (yet?). And then you've got a crop around 58:30-59:00 (Tura, Kiptanui, Kitwara, I'll put Wanjiru here) more in that 2:04/2:05 category. But again, no indication that a 58:30 or better guy running under 2:05:30 (Eliud's debut time!) is a mere formality.

For the sake of the historical record, I'll just add that despite my seeming pessimism and caution, I personally feel pretty comfortable predicting sub 2:03, and perhaps sub 2:01:30 or more, from Kiplimo. I think Kiplimo is very likely the most talented long distance runner we have every seen, and so far has given every indication that the roads will be the fullest expression of his talent. He moves like no one I've ever seen (well, Kipchoge is of course up there with him, but personally I find Kiplimo's movement even more aesthetic and fluid). His ability to essentially solo 57:31 and repeatedly produce sub 58 performances gives me every indication that he has a promising future over 26.2. But again, only time can tell...

I firmly believe he can run 159. However it could be many years before he even mentally goes for it.

The key difference here is Eliud Kipchoge decided to do NOTHING BUT MARATHONS and train 100% for marathons only. Not even a half marathon "tuneup."

Every other guy you mentioned likes doing half marathons, cross country, 10Ks on the track, etc.

I think 2-3 current guys are capable of sub 2:02 (besides Bekele and Kipchoge), maybe even sub 2:01.

Kipchoge’s WR just got a little more impressive (32 seconds faster than the 2nd fastest runner ever). What more impressive is his consistency at the marathon. I don’t think I will ever see anything like it again.

Yep, a fat, injured Bekele closed in very fast after a slow and inconsistent pace to miss by 2 sec. Kipchoge is not 'that' out there

Both Kiplimo and Cheptegi will most likely attempt a sub-2 hour marathon in their careers. Will they do it? I don't think we actually know yet. They have plenty of time on their side to do it. I think there is a decent chance one, if not both, will set a new WR in the process. The time they have on their side means technology advancements could give them that edge to get sub 2 on a legal course.

no need to make plenty talk or to be scientist . Jacob Kiplimo born 14 november 2000 run the Half Marathon at a pace of 2'43"/km . Can he run the marathon (of course with the right training) at 2'50"/km to finish in 1:59'59"?? Absolutely yes . If Kipchoge is able at 37?? to be fast like this I dont see why Kiplimo now 21 years old could not go sub 2hours. He will need to pass half way 2minutes and 30 seconds slower than his PB on the half marathon. I think is absolutely possible in a "normal " "natural " " clean " way of training while if those results comes from a different source of fuel then everything will be unpredictable

Yeah im not sure why people are not mentioning the shoes here in putting his time into context. Kimetto in vaporflys (or the adidas equivalent) is also sub 2:02. Guys like Geb as well, Geoffery Mutai in 2011 when he went 2:05:06 in Boston would be far closer as well. 7 of the 8 fastest people ever came in the last 3 years.

I don't think Kipchoge is that far out there when you put it in context. What makes him the undisputed marathon goat is his unreal consistency and longevity. 14/16 marathon wins (or something like that) is crazy in an event where people generally have a 2-3 year peak.