Utah HS XC Predictions

2023 boys Predictions (for all teams, regardless of division)
1- American Fork. Becoming in contention this year already. Only loses 1 person. Has an individual who could actually win it all at NXN
2- Lone Peak. Loses 1,5,6 from state. But also adds 3 guys that did well at the JV state meet. They reloaded nicely after losing 5 varsity seniors
3- Herriman. Loses 4 guys but return 4 sub-15 guys. Has at least 5 guys who scored for varsity at least once. So they have depth. Just needs someone to emerge as a low stick in order to content. Loses Hartshorn
4- Orem. Returns 4 of their top 6. But needs to find a 5th. Loses Echohawk.
5- Riverton. Returns 5 varsity guys but the problem is they will go from 5-deep to 3-deep. To contend for the #1 spot they will need to find a low stick which they lacked all season, and close the 3-5 gap
6- Taylorsville. Placed 10th at state but returns everybody
7- Viewmont. 7th in the 5a race. Loses only 1 person.
8- Skyridge. Always seems to reload. Losing their 1,3,4 but has some youngsters coming up
9- Corner Canyon. Like Skyridge, they are losing their 1,3,4, but Skyridge’s returns are better
10- Farmington. Reloaded nicely after graduating many people. Wouldn’t be surprised if they are up here again, even after losing their 1-3 from state

Counting out MV is a crazy move. I’d be shocked if they aren’t top ten next year

Mountain View is only 5 deep this year. So all 5 will need to be on tomorrow if they wanna qualify for NXN.
That group of 5 also has 3 seniors, and also another senior at #6.
But next year they will be very young. They could reload, and if they do, they will have a good set up for 2024

Another darkhorse will be Timpanogos. In Herriman’s first race of the season, that was the only team Timpanogos lost to. Timpanogos will also be bringing many guys back.
They made NXN many times before

utah dominated NXR south. MV underperformed but I heard there’s been a sickness going around Orem (also got Orems usual number 2 pretty bad) AF and Herriman seemed very strong though. Hope MV gets an at-large

Mountain Vista boys team from CO almost beat Mountain View. Wonder if they will get a bid as well? They always have had a good team, always reload, and Dalby always gets his kids ready for post season. I don’t think anyone would have predicted them to podium in 2017 at the start of that season
There has also been a lot talk about this region getting 2 at larges on the boys side
That should happen though. Half of the top 15 teams last year at RunningLane were from this region
Even those that didn’t make top 4, like Riverton, are really good. They were ranked 8th in the nation in the preseason
Riverton returns 4 guys under 16:20. Hopefully they find a 5th which I’m sure they will based on what they have done this year

‘A lot of talk…’? Anyone can ‘talk’. It doesn’t mean it’s actually anyone of authority saying it. Also, speed ratings on 3-4 in Southwest were not great.

Yeah the speed ratings are making it look like this region is down this year

Vista is lucky that Dalby decided not to leave. He was going to leave and take a job elsewhere but decided at the last minute to return to Mountain Vista. He is a great coach.

And Newbury Park’s coach actually did move on. They are lucky that Lex/Leo/Aaron S are still on the team and that they got a transfer from Florida.

and also that they returned a current 5th who ran a sub-15 at RunningLane last year

The fact that Martinez isn’t running this fall puts more pressure on their top 5

The guys on the back end of Herriman’s varsity have all improved by 2 or 3 minutes from last year.
Also, there was a 16:07 Herriman guy in the open race who ran faster than their 6th and 7th. 25 seconds faster than their 7th actually.

Did Soles put him in for NXN? I think one substitution is allowed.

He ran at state and closed the 4-5 gap in the first meet, so I don’t understand why he was in the open race to begin with

But what it also shows is how much depth they will have for next year. There’s only 1 senior in the 5-10 group. But losing 1-4 is always tough.

This aged well

Plewe 17:42

Congrats to Riverton on beating the #2 team in the nation at RunningLane and winning that meet!!! What a huge accomplishment!!!

Danny. Simmons. What a race. 😮 2nd at NXN!

Watched him go 9:04 as a sophomore in Idaho last year and you could tell he only gets better the longer it goes. He’s a metronome. And today timed his surges and kick perfectly.

Utah went 3-5-17 on the boys side

Now this didn’t age well…even on a national scale

I am a brother of a runner on the varsity on herriman. Herriman may be losing many seniors thus year, but we are most likely doubling the amount of runners from the incoming freshman (me included.)

I would hope to surprise you about herrimans performance next year. I am an incoming freshman (my brother runs varsity), and we have many young talents on the way. Only time will tell.