Hrowo wrote:
What about combining the NewYork and the Northeast together?
Fairport had 4 guys over 170 speed rating
Objective Best NXN Region
High School Running
History
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my two pennies wrote:
Because I was curious, I decided to find the average place of the top 2 teams from each region over every iteration of NXN (2008-2019) in an attempt to objectively determine which regions were the strongest. Here's the results:
Boys:
1. Southwest - 6.5
2. California - 7.3
3. Midwest - 8.2
4. Northwest - 10.2
5. New York - 11.0
6. Northeast - 11.3
7. South - 13.2
8. Southeast - 13.6
9. Heartland - 13.8
Unsurprisingly, this list is headed by Southwest, California, and Midwest. These three regions are definitely the most consistent, especially the Southwest, and probably deserve priority on at-large bids if there is some doubt. If there's ever any consideration to change the regions, then adding from the Southwest to the South and from the Midwest to the Heartland would make the most sense.
Girls:
1. New York - 4.1
2-3. California/Southwest - 7.6
4. Midwest - 8.8
5. Northwest - 12.0
6. Heartland - 12.5
7. Southeast - 12.8
8. South - 16
9. Northeast - 16.5
The dominance of New York girls is really insane. On the boys side, there has only ever been one 1-2 finish, by California in 2019. On the girls side, FM and Saratoga did it three times in a row from 2009-2011. The switch to Glendoveer has evened things up a little, but New York is still dominant; only two NXN or NTN races have ever been won by a team from another region. This is part of the reason for the South and Northeast having such high average placements, but dang it would be nice to see those regions get some help.
Combined:
1. Southwest - 7.1
2. California - 7.5
3. New York - 7.5
4. Midwest - 8.5
5. Northwest - 11.1
6. Heartland - 13.2
7. Southeast - 13.2
8. Northeast - 13.9
9. South - 14.6
The trends pretty much stay the same. The South desperately needs some more states, at this point in time it's pretty much just been a Texas region. Missouri and New Mexico make the most sense, but no matter what something needs to change. Unfortunately California and New York cannot be made any weaker unless you split them into multiple regions (perhaps adding NC schools to Northwest and Long Island schools to Northeast). I am also unsure if this data should really be given any weight in pre-season rankings; the top 4 regions have a lot of strong, perennially competitive teams, but it doesn't mean any team in the region is automatically better than an equivalent team in a different region. Just an interesting exercise, and I'm curious to hear what people think. Are these results what you expected? Do you think the regions need to be adjusted? Any other thoughts?
And Midwest has been pretty much just an Illinois region on the team side in the last few years
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Can't really split up CA, because then you have to revise the state meet schedule. Basically no free weekend from end of October until NXN. You'd have to put a new NW NXR like 3rd week of October if you want to shove northern California teams into the NW region.
They really just need to increase number of teams at NXN by 2 and increase the number of auto-bids for CA/SW to 3. Then still allow for those regions to get 2 at large's if possible in good years, but in bad years those regions are only putting 3 teams in NXN. In most years, the top 3 teams out of CA/SW are top half of the race with only the 4th team bombing out, so 3 teams seems to be a still safe margin.
Or the more flexible approach of just more at large's possible and not limiting a region to only 2 at larges.
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newbury brought down californias average by like a point
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newburyfarts wrote:
newbury brought down californias average by like a point
California is probably going to get even worse next year on the boys side.
All of the top teams in the state are pretty much all seniors.10 -
Fallin from grace wrote:
newburyfarts wrote:
newbury brought down californias average by like a point
California is probably going to get even worse next year on the boys side.
All of the top teams in the state are pretty much all seniors.Sure. People have been saying this since 2010 when Arcadia won. California was very bad pre 2010, but good every year since.
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NY state meet last weekend. Monroe-Woodbury and Saratoga top boys teams in the merge. Monroe definitely looks like the more competitive national team thanks to their top end.
Based on speed ratings, at Midwest region Monroe would've been really close with Plainfield North and South for 2nd and 3rd, with Saratoga a bit behind.
At Heartland they definitely would've both beaten Dowling Catholic, but it would've been tough to beat Wayzata. Close race for Monroe though.
Northwest looks to be the strongest region so far. Monroe would have been really close with Franklin and Rocky Mountain, Saratoga a bit behind. Depending on what happens in Southwest and California, Franklin should be considered for a bid.
Overall not a bad showing, NY is definitely not a STRONG region this year but competitive teams have begun to pop up. The depth is also really good, there are probably eight teams that could qualify, with a couple more you could make an argument for.
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my two pennies wrote:
NY state meet last weekend. Monroe-Woodbury and Saratoga top boys teams in the merge. Monroe definitely looks like the more competitive national team thanks to their top end.
Based on speed ratings, at Midwest region Monroe would've been really close with Plainfield North and South for 2nd and 3rd, with Saratoga a bit behind.
At Heartland they definitely would've both beaten Dowling Catholic, but it would've been tough to beat Wayzata. Close race for Monroe though.
Northwest looks to be the strongest region so far. Monroe would have been really close with Franklin and Rocky Mountain, Saratoga a bit behind. Depending on what happens in Southwest and California, Franklin should be considered for a bid.
Overall not a bad showing, NY is definitely not a STRONG region this year but competitive teams have begun to pop up. The depth is also really good, there are probably eight teams that could qualify, with a couple more you could make an argument for.
It’s crazy to me that if Rocky doesn’t get a bid, the first two guys out this year in the NW have run faster than the last individual qualifier out of the NW in every other iteration of NXR NW. The 8th place finisher ran the same time Duncan Hamilton ran to get 2nd one year. The NW is super deep on the individual side. The 9th place boy won the Idaho State meet and ran faster on the Portneuf course than Nicholas Russell, Nathan Green, Stetson Moss and others ever ran and he was only the third Idaho boy on Saturday.
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my two pennies wrote:
NY state meet last weekend. Monroe-Woodbury and Saratoga top boys teams in the merge. Monroe definitely looks like the more competitive national team thanks to their top end.
Based on speed ratings, at Midwest region Monroe would've been really close with Plainfield North and South for 2nd and 3rd, with Saratoga a bit behind.
At Heartland they definitely would've both beaten Dowling Catholic, but it would've been tough to beat Wayzata. Close race for Monroe though.
Northwest looks to be the strongest region so far. Monroe would have been really close with Franklin and Rocky Mountain, Saratoga a bit behind. Depending on what happens in Southwest and California, Franklin should be considered for a bid.
Overall not a bad showing, NY is definitely not a STRONG region this year but competitive teams have begun to pop up. The depth is also really good, there are probably eight teams that could qualify, with a couple more you could make an argument for.
I’m sure that Monroe Woodbury is hungry to qualify for NXN this year after having a couple of guys off at NXR last year. Even if they don’t do well at NXN this year, this will be a good experience for them for next year since they only have 1 senior. Next year they might be able to do what Corning did last year.
Saratoga and MW are better than St. Anthony’s. 4th and 5th position is what bringing St Anthony’s down.
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my two pennies wrote:
The trends pretty much stay the same. The South desperately needs some more states, at this point in time it's pretty much just been a Texas region.
this ain’t the case this year
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my two pennies wrote:
The trends pretty much stay the same. The South desperately needs some more states, at this point in time it's pretty much just been a Texas region.
Only 2 of the top 5 boys teams in the South region this year were from TX. And Jesuit LA wasn’t in the top 5.
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How about basing the number of autoqualifiers off of NXN performances from the previous years?
For example,
On the boys side: 3 autoqualifying teams from the Southwest, 1 autoqualifying team from New York
On the girls side: 3 autoqualifying teams from the Southwest, 1 autoqualifying team from Heartland.And still 2 at-large teams are allowed in all regions, even if that means it can send 5 boys teams from the Southwest.
But have at least 1 autoqualifier on both sides in every region so each region is represented and because you never know what the future of the region will look like. Example: maybe a region is sending 1 autoqualifier and this region has improved based on NXN performances, so start sending 2 autoqualifiers from that region again
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