NXR Southwest predictions

High School Running

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1 year ago 10/17/2022 6:59pm EDT

re: Fat thumbs

Fat thumbs wrote:
I keep seeing comments about American Fork as a contender for 2023. As much as I’d like to see that happen, it seems a long ways off. In 2019 the top two NXN teams had at least 5 runners over 182 speed rated. American Fork so far has 1 and getting all 5 there is predicting a lot of improvement.

Jesuit LA will likely win nationals next year if everyone is healthy and chooses to do the same nationals meet as others (probably will be NXN)

If all goes well, they could get 7 guys above a 180 speed rating this year. 4 of them being nonseniors.

These are the guys we can expect to get over 180 this year:
Mullen (10) - lead the team at Niketown - ran a 180+ there
Dowd/Buisson/Desroches (all seniors) - ran a 180+ at Niketown
Vocke (11) - their usual #1 but was sick at Niketown
Sampedro (11) - was injured at the beginning of the season. But was their third runner last year. Not 100% at Niketown
Crawford (10) - was the 3rd guy at southern showcase but had an off race at Niketown
So they will bring back 4 possible 180+ guys next year.
They also have a freshman who ran a 164. He probably won’t run a 180 this year or end up on varsity (he ran varsity at Niketown without vocke in the race or Sampedro healthy) but next year we might see him close the gap on their 4th.
There is an 8th grader who finished close behind that freshman in a middle school race last year
He also has a junior brother on JV who went from 18s last year to 16s this year.
These 2 could be good 6th and 7th runners

Did you guys know that NP’s 4th and 5th guys did not run a 180 speed rating but Jesuit’s 4th did and their 5th was close?

I know np is still the best in the country but still

1 year ago 10/17/2022 7:50pm EDT

re: And also this

Is Jesuit LA in the southwest? No.

1 year ago 10/18/2022 11:42am EDT

re: Fat thumbs

Fat thumbs wrote:
I keep seeing comments about American Fork as a contender for 2023. As much as I’d like to see that happen, it seems a long ways off. In 2019 the top two NXN teams had at least 5 runners over 182 speed rated. American Fork so far has 1 and getting all 5 there is predicting a lot of improvement.

Good point. Usually teams that win nxn make it the year before. Great oak and loudoun valley won it on the first try.
CBA, Southlake Carroll, Crater, Jesuit LA, Union catholic (always brings in good transfers), and maybe wayzata and Belen Jesuit are some teams that will contend next year.

It’s also worth mentioning that Luke Grundvig (#1 on the team in 2018) has a junior brother on the team who started running last year. Just off varsity this year but made a big jump from last year and he has another year to step up and maybe score well next year.

1 year ago 10/19/2022 1:34am EDT

re: Good point here

Good point here wrote:
Fat thumbs wrote:
I keep seeing comments about American Fork as a contender for 2023. As much as I’d like to see that happen, it seems a long ways off. In 2019 the top two NXN teams had at least 5 runners over 182 speed rated. American Fork so far has 1 and getting all 5 there is predicting a lot of improvement.
Good point. Usually teams that win nxn make it the year before. Great oak and loudoun valley won it on the first try.
CBA, Southlake Carroll, Crater, Jesuit LA, Union catholic (always brings in good transfers), and maybe wayzata and Belen Jesuit are some teams that will contend next year.
It’s also worth mentioning that Luke Grundvig (#1 on the team in 2018) has a junior brother on the team who started running last year. Just off varsity this year but made a big jump from last year and he has another year to step up and maybe score well next year.

But from an individual standpoint. Simmons could be a contender individually next year.

And of course, scoring a 1 point will help the team score.

Also, someone on the On The line show thinks that American Fork can challenge Herriman this year

1 year ago 10/20/2022 12:40pm EDT

re: S W e g

Southwest region boys rankings are very messy
https://dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=46052&do=news&news_id=649089
Valor beat Cherokee Trail and these rankings aren’t showing this. American Fork not in the top 5 is a complete joke.

1 year ago 10/20/2022 8:53pm EDT

re: S W e g

Valor Christian lost to Rock Canyon (one of the schools that Easton Allred went to)
https://co.milesplit.com/meets/500885-colorado-5a-region-5-cross-country-2022/results#.Y1HscSVOkWM
really showing how problematic the 3-4 gap is here

1 year ago 10/23/2022 10:48am EDT

re: az hs runner

az hs runner wrote:
S W e g wrote:
Here are mine.
Boys
1. Corner Canyon UT
2. Niwot CO
3. Cherokee Trail CO
4. Riverton UT
5. Herriman UT
6. Mountain View UT
7. Highland AZ
8. Mountain Vista CO
9. American Fork UT
10. Skyridge UT
11. Valor Christian CO
12. Lone Peak UT
13. Orem UT
14. Desert Hills UT
15. Rock Canyon CO
I will be honest, Highland is a toss-up being put up there. I'm an AZ HS runner myself and their #2 man from last year just graduated. They definitely have a solid team but it just depends on who shows up this year (who does well). I'm not well versed in CO and UT schools besides Niwot and Olympus (UT).

Highland lost to a bunch of CA teams that won’t make NXN at mt sac

1 year ago 10/25/2022 6:19pm EDT

re: S W e g

American Fork boys team can autoqualify for NXN if they race like they did at state.

1 year ago 10/25/2022 7:05pm EDT

re: trundzer

Mountain View dominates the 5A race. 5 under 16. 2 are sophomores. Actually, they had better times than American Fork.

1 year ago 10/25/2022 7:56pm EDT

re: trundzer

I think right now, Mountain View and American Fork are the best 2 boys teams in the region.

Both should qualify for NXN if Herriman can’t put it together at NXR.

Herriman can finish anywhere between first and third at NXR if they perform like they are capable of. I don’t think they ran their best today.

1 year ago 10/25/2022 8:08pm EDT

re: trundzer

If you look at the strava of Noah Jenkins and William Horne from Herrimann, they apparently did a 5 mile tempo the day before the state meet. I am not sure why in the world they did this, uncomprehendable, but I think they are going to still qualify at NXR.

1. American Fork 2. Herrimann, not sure about the other teams.

1 year ago 10/25/2022 8:30pm EDT

re: 5milestempobeforethestatemeet

Mountain View times:

15:05

15:20

15:38

15:47

15:48

American Fork times:

14:49

15:36

15:44

14:48

15:52

So Mountain View had better times.

If Herriman gets 3rd, they need to finish close to the other 2 teams in order to get an at-large.

None of the Colorado teams are looking as impressive as these ones.

A lot of people probably were thinking that Riverton would win state year since they returned 4 of their top 5 and added a 9:42 guy to their top group. There’s a reason why they couldn’t keep up with AF. Although they did have a 26 second compression, they lacked a low stick that all these other teams had.

1 year ago 10/26/2022 9:56am EDT

re: 5milestempobeforethestatemeet

But anyways, they better not do a 5-mile tempo before NXR. Otherwise they aren’t making NXN.

I thought that Soles knew better than to make his kids do a tempo before the race.

Cause it’s not like Herriman was focusing on NXR/NXN only. They wanted to win state too. 9th to 4th is still a solid jump, but based on what they did at races like Timpanogos and Woodbridge, they were definitely in the thick of it to win state.

1 year ago 10/26/2022 10:01am EDT

re: trundzer

Herriman did not do a 5 mile tempo the day before state. They were joking with that because of all the Strava stalking that goes on.

1 year ago 10/26/2022 12:51pm EDT

re: Topspin21

Herrimann is washed then, no way they get top 2 at NXR. I predict Mountain View winning with AF second. No Colorado teams will be in the top 4 unless Valor closes the 3-4 gap.

1 year ago 10/26/2022 6:15pm EDT

re: 5milestempobeforethestatemeet

Herriman probably had an off race. since their season isn't over, could be a good thing. I'm sure they will be figuring out what they did wrong in this race, and try not to repeat those mistakes at NXR

1 year ago 10/26/2022 7:52pm EDT

re: trundzer

Herrimanns mistake is that they are slow.

1 year ago 10/30/2022 4:49pm EDT

re: 5milestempobeforethestatemeet

5milestempobeforethestatemeet wrote:
No Colorado teams will be in the top 4 unless Valor closes the 3-4 gap.

Valor’s 4 and 5 ran a 155 speed rating

1 year ago 11/01/2022 1:57pm EDT

re: Fat thumbs

Fat thumbs wrote:
Never too early wrote:
Way too early rankings for boys 2023 teams:
1. American Fork UT. One senior this year but has still shown they can compete with any team in the region. Could maybe challenge for a national title.
2. Herriman UT. Great Coach. Lost their 1-4 but returns 4 under 15 for 3 miles. 5 returners have scored on varsity at least once. Might need a new low stick
3. Valor Christian CO. Slightly the best team in CO right now. Only losing Costelow. Shouldn’t make things worse though
4. Orem UT. Losing Echohawk but returns 4 of their top 5. But needs a better number 5.
5. Riverton UT. Very good team this year already and keeps 5 varsity guys. Looking to be a big drop off between 3rd and 4th guys though
6. Lone Peak UT. Reloaded well after losing many seniors. Next year they keep most guys on the team.
I keep seeing comments about American Fork as a contender for 2023. As much as I’d like to see that happen, it seems a long ways off. In 2019 the top two NXN teams had at least 5 runners over 182 speed rated. American Fork so far has 1 and getting all 5 there is predicting a lot of improvement.

AF returns 4 guys over 182 for next year. I’m sure the 4-5 gap will close. 5th could be either a current sophomore, or maybe Luke Grundvig’s brother who started last year. Luke himself made an insane progression after starting sophomore year

tullyrunners.com

Link:http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/UtahSta...

1 year ago 11/01/2022 1:58pm EDT

re: Maybe possible?

Maybe possible? wrote:
Fat thumbs wrote:
I keep seeing comments about American Fork as a contender for 2023. As much as I’d like to see that happen, it seems a long ways off. In 2019 the top two NXN teams had at least 5 runners over 182 speed rated. American Fork so far has 1 and getting all 5 there is predicting a lot of improvement.
AF returns 4 guys over 182 for next year. I’m sure the 4-5 gap will close. 5th could be either a current sophomore, or maybe Luke Grundvig’s brother who started last year. Luke himself made an insane progression after starting sophomore year
Link:http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/UtahSta...

I mean they return 4 over 172

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