This girl ran for Winona Cotter in MN for 2 years, then for Desert Vista for 3 years, and then Valley Christian for her last year.
Is she also changing residences? If so she won’t get to race varsity until NXR.
Gotta be a pain to move so much.
It also seems like she leaves the school they year that the team needs her the most.
But anyways, Desert Vista wouldn’t have made NXN if Lauren was still on the team
...that the family lived in Park City UT a year or two in there as well.
A skeptic would think they moved (back) to Winona short-term to maximize HS/Nat'l racing opportunities as 7th and 8th graders compete Varsity in MN.
Totally separate, but 13 of the top 18 girls were 7th, 8th, or 9th graders? 2017 MN Class A State - Girls
lets not forget... wrote:
...that the family lived in Park City UT a year or two in there as well.
A skeptic would think they moved (back) to Winona short-term to maximize HS/Nat'l racing opportunities as 7th and 8th graders compete Varsity in MN.
Totally separate, but 13 of the top 18 girls were 7th, 8th, or 9th graders? 2017 MN Class A State - Girls
And the top senior was only #12….
lets not forget... wrote:
...that the family lived in Park City UT a year or two in there as well.
A skeptic would think they moved (back) to Winona short-term to maximize HS/Nat'l racing opportunities as 7th and 8th graders compete Varsity in MN.
Totally separate, but 13 of the top 18 girls were 7th, 8th, or 9th graders? 2017 MN Class A State - Girls
Senior class wasn’t that relevant in AA either.
#5 senior was running 27 minute 5ks until senior year.
and check this out. Only 1 senior in the top 6 at NXN
I think that the presence of Grace and Lauren at Cotter has really elevated the program.
Cotter made state last year with almost everyone on the team being freshman and under, even though Grace and Lauren are no longer on the team.
And before the Pings ran for Cotter, this team used to always finish near the bottom at the section meet
How would you guys rank the Southwest teams based on how they have done so far?
Niwot is the only team that didn’t actually race everyone yet.
Seems like Cherokee Trail and Valor Christian are even. Both could be the #1 team in CO along with Niwot. I don’t see any other CO team up there.
I’m this race, ALL of the boys Utah teams faced each other. Seems like pretty much all teams had someone have an off-day or missing. But these things cancel each other out.
At Herriman’s first race, their 4 and 5 were right with their #3. If that happens at NXR they will be really hard to beat, by any other Utah team at least.
Having Doug Soles as a coach must be no problemo. They finished 9th at the state meet last year.
I think from what we saw at Woodbridge, it’s pretty clear that Herriman would crush this region and get top 3 at Jesuit-LA-less NXN, especially if they find a number 5.
Second spot at the region seems is looking to be a toss-up.
Candidates:
Cherokee Trail, Valor Christian, Mountain View, Riverton, American Fork and Corner Canyon.
Cherokee Trail - at liberty bell where they won, they have shown that they have a very strong and deep 1-7 and beyond.
Valor Christian. If Costelow finished where he was capable of they would have been close with them at Cherokee Trail.
Mountain View - at Woodbridge, they almost beat the Great Oak. Seems like they found a #5 also.
American fork - this team always seems to do well at the end of the season. Never count these guys out. They weren’t very far behind mountain view at the timpanogos invite and some of their 2-5 were either absent or had an off day.
Riverton - many thought this would be the best team in this region before the season started. Well, maybe not anymore. They have a solid group of 5 guys but seem to lack a front runner. That teams like Herriman and American Fork have. What they need to do to qualify is make the 1-5 gap closer.
Corner Canyon - not sure how, but this team beat Mountain View once this season. These guys are making progress. If they get a 5th guy to step up they have an outside shot of qualifying for nxn.
Remember, this is the southwest region, so there will likely be at least one at-large bid.
I think that Riverton is a team we can count out now. They barely beat the rebuilding team Farmington and they seemed to have all of their 5 guys. They don’t have a low stick that teams like American fork, Mountain View and Herriman do.
They are less likely to qualify for NXN than Herriman, American Fork, Mountain View, and Valor Christian. But if nike choose to cancel it, and everyone does RunningLane, they will get into the top race.
Corner canyon could surprise some people if they find a number 5.
Actually Riverton beat American Fork last weekend.
look how close Cherokee trail, valor and niwot are.
may we just say at this point, that Herriman is the outright favorite, and that there’s no clear second or 3rd best team in this region?
Based on the region results the top 3 SW teams are:
1. Herriman UT
2. Riverton UT
3. Mountain View UT
I don’t think any of these teams ever went to NXN before. It will be cool to see them all go. Mountain View’s 3-5 better well at NXR
S W egg wrote:
Based on the region results the top 3 SW teams are:
1. Herriman UT
2. Riverton UT
3. Mountain View UT
I don’t think any of these teams ever went to NXN before. It will be cool to see them all go. Mountain View’s 3-5 better well at NXR
Mountain View placed 5th at the first two NTN's in 2004 and 2005. They were 12th at RunningLane last year.
Riverton placed 17th at RunningLane last year.
Stop stalking her
Torrey Pines raced at both Woodbridge and Hole in the Wall.
Meaning, thus far they are the only meaningful link between Utah and Colorado teams. This type of speculation is fraught with uncertainty, but here's what it might tell us:
Torrey Pines ran about 75 seconds slower per runner at HITW than at Woodbridge.
Take 75 seconds per runner off of Cheyenne Mountain's runners, arguably CO's #5 team, and they're scoring something like 200-210 points at Woodbridge, which places them ahead of both Mountain View and Orem.
Obviously a huge leap of faith, but it's all we've got until November - I'm not sure it's safe to assume that Utah is much stronger than Colorado.
kevin bacon wrote:
Torrey Pines raced at both Woodbridge and Hole in the Wall.
Meaning, thus far they are the only meaningful link between Utah and Colorado teams. This type of speculation is fraught with uncertainty, but here's what it might tell us:
Torrey Pines ran about 75 seconds slower per runner at HITW than at Woodbridge.
Take 75 seconds per runner off of Cheyenne Mountain's runners, arguably CO's #5 team, and they're scoring something like 200-210 points at Woodbridge, which places them ahead of both Mountain View and Orem.
Obviously a huge leap of faith, but it's all we've got until November - I'm not sure it's safe to assume that Utah is much stronger than Colorado.
Most northwest teams that Cheyenne mountain faced weren’t very strong. Those that were strong (Jesuit and Eastlake) had some guys run an off race.
Eastlake’s 3/4 had an off race.
All of Jesuit’s top 7 had an off day except for their #5 (sophomore new to varsity).
But You’re probably kind of right. It still seems to be a complete toss-up behind Herriman. Could be any team from either CO and Utah that gets second and third at NXR.
Riverton almost beat Herriman, but Herriman’s 3/4 guys (seniors) under performed.
Riverton doesn’t seem to have a front guy so their pack better close up if they wanna make NXN. Valor Christian seems a little better because of their front end talent (impressive top 3), and their 4-7 are stellar as well
How the top Southwest teams can qualify for NXN (through an at-large or automatically)
Herriman…if their top 4 seniors are on and their #5 guy is on, they are hard to beat in this region.
Riverton: unfortunately this team lacks a front runner that teams like Herriman, Mountain View and American Fork have, so to make up for that, they will need to tighten up the 1-5 gap
Mountain View: Got a strong 1/2. 2 of their seniors (Moore/Waite) had an off day at regions so they need to race smart at regions and be their 3rd and 4th guys. A sophomore needs to close the gap on them as well.
American Fork: They did lose to Lone Peak, but they were missing one of their scorers. Simmons needs to be in the top 5 (I’m sure he would wanna try to qualify individually since his team has no guarantees of making it). Also, the 2 guys named Ben need to stay together, be their second and third guys, and do their best job. Also their 4th and 5th need to race smart and try to close the gap on the Bens.
Valor Christian: Costelow and Eike need to race smart, and their 4th and 5th guys need to try to close the gap on their 3rd guy.
Cherokee Trail: Strand needs to try to finish as high as possibly, and the 2-5 pack needs to close the gap and finish as high as possible. Having a 7+ deep team really helps.
Niwot: lead by a freshman so the older guys need to do everything it takes to close the gap on him.
Mountain Vista: this team lost many seniors but always seems to reload and be there at the end. Seems like they found some guys over the summer to step up. They also always progress well throughout the season. Downs/Anderson need to finish as high as they can and the 3-7 pack (yes, they still are 7+ deep) needs to work together and finish as high as possible.
Way too early rankings for boys 2023 teams:
1. American Fork UT. One senior this year but has still shown they can compete with any team in the region. Could maybe challenge for a national title.
2. Herriman UT. Great Coach. Lost their 1-4 but returns 4 under 15 for 3 miles. 5 returners have scored on varsity at least once. Might need a new low stick
3. Valor Christian CO. Slightly the best team in CO right now. Only losing Costelow. Shouldn’t make things worse though
4. Orem UT. Losing Echohawk but returns 4 of their top 5. But needs a better number 5.
5. Riverton UT. Very good team this year already and keeps 5 varsity guys. Looking to be a big drop off between 3rd and 4th guys though
6. Lone Peak UT. Reloaded well after losing many seniors. Next year they keep most guys on the team.
Never too early wrote:
Way too early rankings for boys 2023 teams:
1. American Fork UT. One senior this year but has still shown they can compete with any team in the region. Could maybe challenge for a national title.
2. Herriman UT. Great Coach. Lost their 1-4 but returns 4 under 15 for 3 miles. 5 returners have scored on varsity at least once. Might need a new low stick
3. Valor Christian CO. Slightly the best team in CO right now. Only losing Costelow. Shouldn’t make things worse though
4. Orem UT. Losing Echohawk but returns 4 of their top 5. But needs a better number 5.
5. Riverton UT. Very good team this year already and keeps 5 varsity guys. Looking to be a big drop off between 3rd and 4th guys though
6. Lone Peak UT. Reloaded well after losing many seniors. Next year they keep most guys on the team.
I keep seeing comments about American Fork as a contender for 2023. As much as I’d like to see that happen, it seems a long ways off. In 2019 the top two NXN teams had at least 5 runners over 182 speed rated. American Fork so far has 1 and getting all 5 there is predicting a lot of improvement.
