So far we have Bob Kennedy (‘96), Bernard Lagat (‘05), Dathan Ritzenhein (‘09), Matt Tegenkamp (‘09), Chris Solinsky (‘10), Galen Rupp (‘12), Paul Chelimo (‘18), Woody Kincaid (‘19), Lopez Lomong (‘20), and Grant Fisher (‘22). How many will add their names to the list in the coming 3 seasons (through 2024), and who will they be?
I’m going to be rather optimistic and say that the group will swell to 16 by September 2024. Not only that, but I’ll predict multiple athletes will do it at a younger age than any of the existing ten (current standard: Grant Fisher at 24 years, 9 months).
2022 - Cooper Teare, Joe Klecker
2023 - Cole Hocker, Abdihamid Nur
2024 - Nico Young, Morgan Beadlescomb
Yes, Beadlescomb might be a bit of a stretch but I like his trajectory, and between his 3:52.0 indoor mile and the manner in which he ran 13:17 (in a loss to Brian Fay, mind you), it wouldn’t really surprise me if he runs sub-13:10 this year. Then get him in a good pro training group like On or the Notorious B.T.C., and he goes 12:59 come summer of ‘24.