I would be extremely surprised if Sahlman breaks 13 by the end of 2024 as you’re predicting. Seems like 13:35 shape (2022/18), 13:19 (2023/19), 13:07 (2024/20) would be a stellar progression, more than we should ask for.
Yes I'm looking at Nico's progression at NAU, and I think Sahlman is faster and more talented. It's a bold take, for sure. I could see him having a Hocker-like ascension.
I agree Teare and Klecker seem like their ready if they get in the right races. Thats never guaranteed though. Emmanual Bor deserves to be on your 2022 list too.
Regarding upcoming years ... Neguse seems as likely as anyone.
Hocker seems like he could join the club this year or it could take him 5 years depending on his priorities. I do think he'll be a sub 13 guy eventually though.
I also think you'll see guys like Sean McGorty quietly chip away at their PRs and you never know who will surprise like Kincaid did in 2019. And you never know if a race in perfect conditions with perfect pacing opens the floodgates and all sorts of Americans break through.
Credit to Emmanuel Bor for his 13:00i this year, which makes him an obvious candidate to break 13, but since this thread is meant as a fun exercise in pure guesswork I’d contend nobody “deserves” to be on my list. That 13:00 race was a pretty ideal situation to run fast, and Bor is 34 so if he’s going to do it, he’d better do it quick.
I suspect Nuguse’s performance drops off pretty steeply over 3k, and he might actually have more potential at 800 than 5000. I could see him running 13:0x with a few more years of consistent mileage, but sub-13 in the next couple years? Seriously doubt it.
I basically agree with your last two paragraphs, but the never knowing is what makes speculation fun.
Nothing against Beadlescomb, but why did you put him and not Mantz? Mantz now has ran 13:13, which is technically 4 seconds faster than Beadlescomb's PR. I feel like he has at least as good of a shot
I don't think Mantz will be sticking to the track very long. He is 25 years old, has a sub 61 half marathon PR from December. He doesn't have the closing speed many of the other track guys have and is more strength based. I think he's a 2:08 or better guy for the marathon and I imagine he'll be running the 2024 olympic marathon trials and focusing on marathon from that point forward. So if he's going to go sub 13 he has to do it this year or next year, and 13 seconds isn't nothing and he may never even be in a race where someone runs sub 13.
I would be extremely surprised if Sahlman breaks 13 by the end of 2024 as you’re predicting. Seems like 13:35 shape (2022/18), 13:19 (2023/19), 13:07 (2024/20) would be a stellar progression, more than we should ask for.
Yes I'm looking at Nico's progression at NAU, and I think Sahlman is faster and more talented. It's a bold take, for sure. I could see him having a Hocker-like ascension.
In several interviews Sahlman has said that he prefers the mile over the two mile, and by extension, the 5K. But he's presently caught up in chasing a 3:55 (or better). Coach Smith will no doubt influence his thinking.
In several interviews Sahlman has said that he prefers the mile over the two mile, and by extension, the 5K. But he's presently caught up in chasing a 3:55 (or better). Coach Smith will no doubt influence his thinking.
Yeah, I think Mike Smith does a great job at prepping guys for the 15/5. Rachel Schneider has thrived at both, Nico/Abdi are throwing down great times in both. I think Sahlman may specialize more in the 15/mile, but he will run fast 5Ks. Sahlman has a ton of natural speed, and I don't think he needs much speedwork to throw down a fast 15/mile.
If the spikes are worth even half as much as you claim, virtually everyone at the elite level has gone backwards since 2018. Do you honestly believe that if you went back in time and gave Barega a pair of Dragonflies he would’ve run under 12:30 in Brussels?
The “super” spikes MIGHT be worth a couple seconds over 5k. Anybody like you saying multiple seconds per kilometer is a clown.
A lot of folks in this thread that think people can move up in distance easily. Nuguse? Gary Martin? Not every miler is a 5k guy. Nick Willis ran 3:29. His PR is 13:20. Same with Josh Kerr. I don’t expect Hobbs Kessler to move up in distance easily either. Even Centro took several years to run 13:00. He was a 13:20 guy before that.
The OP asked us to make predictions. Nobody is saying people can easily move up in distance BUT of course when you are a sub 4 minute miler in HS it usually tells us that you are very talented and so one might predict that very talented kids have a shot at sub 13. Only a fool would act like they know for sure.
So far we have Bob Kennedy (‘96), Bernard Lagat (‘05), Dathan Ritzenhein (‘09), Matt Tegenkamp (‘09), Chris Solinsky (‘10), Galen Rupp (‘12), Paul Chelimo (‘18), Woody Kincaid (‘19), Lopez Lomong (‘20), and Grant Fisher (‘22). How many will add their names to the list in the coming 3 seasons (through 2024), and who will they be?
I’m going to be rather optimistic and say that the group will swell to 16 by September 2024. Not only that, but I’ll predict multiple athletes will do it at a younger age than any of the existing ten (current standard: Grant Fisher at 24 years, 9 months).
2022 - Cooper Teare, Joe Klecker
2023 - Cole Hocker, Abdihamid Nur
2024 - Nico Young, Morgan Beadlescomb
Yes, Beadlescomb might be a bit of a stretch but I like his trajectory, and between his 3:52.0 indoor mile and the manner in which he ran 13:17 (in a loss to Brian Fay, mind you), it wouldn’t really surprise me if he runs sub-13:10 this year. Then get him in a good pro training group like On or the Notorious B.T.C., and he goes 12:59 come summer of ‘24.
Who. Cares.
sub-13 is very 1987 ; … maybe you mean sub-12:50.
These new spring loaded shoes and the dope/burritos.. shouldn’t you aim a bit more ambitiously?
So far we have Bob Kennedy (‘96), Bernard Lagat (‘05), Dathan Ritzenhein (‘09), Matt Tegenkamp (‘09), Chris Solinsky (‘10), Galen Rupp (‘12), Paul Chelimo (‘18), Woody Kincaid (‘19), Lopez Lomong (‘20), and Grant Fisher (‘22). How many will add their names to the list in the coming 3 seasons (through 2024), and who will they be?
I’m going to be rather optimistic and say that the group will swell to 16 by September 2024. Not only that, but I’ll predict multiple athletes will do it at a younger age than any of the existing ten (current standard: Grant Fisher at 24 years, 9 months).
2022 - Cooper Teare, Joe Klecker
2023 - Cole Hocker, Abdihamid Nur
2024 - Nico Young, Morgan Beadlescomb
Yes, Beadlescomb might be a bit of a stretch but I like his trajectory, and between his 3:52.0 indoor mile and the manner in which he ran 13:17 (in a loss to Brian Fay, mind you), it wouldn’t really surprise me if he runs sub-13:10 this year. Then get him in a good pro training group like On or the Notorious B.T.C., and he goes 12:59 come summer of ‘24.
Who. Cares.
sub-13 is very 1987 ; … maybe you mean sub-12:50.
These new spring loaded shoes and the dope/burritos.. shouldn’t you aim a bit more ambitiously?
Yeah, if they can go sub 13 in a pair of Nike Ventulus, Jassaris, Eldore IIs, or Matumbos, then I'll get excited.