This is what I posted in another thread regarding the potential for fast times (specifically, a women’s CR):
John Wesley Harding wrote:
9:45 a.m. Elite Women’s Start
Hopkinton 10 a.m. 47F Sunny w NNE 6mph
Newton 11 a.m. 50F Sunny w ENE 6mph
Newton 12 p.m. 52F Sunny w E 9mph
Boston 12 p.m. 50F Sunny w E 11mph
If that holds true I think the wind looks manageable—not ideal, but not bad enough to preclude women of Jepkosgei and Jepchirchir’s caliber from running under 2:19:59 IF (big if) someone sets an honest enough pace in the first half. And would a little 6mph breeze in ideal temps really discourage you from gunning for a PR? (Yes I know, most of the truly elite women will be more concerned with place than time). If a 2:23-2:26 type gets them to halfway in 72:00, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Jepkosgei or Jepchirchir blasting sub-68 for the second half, even against the wind. Remember, Jepkosgei ran 64:02 for the half last year, and these two might be capable of 2:15:xx in an ideal scenario. That gives them considerable wiggle room against the CR.
(End quote)
The women’s CR is 2:19:59 and two of the women competing tomorrow might be capable of 2:15 in ideal conditions. The men’s CR (2:03:02) is a completely different story—nobody’s touching that tomorrow, and probably not for many years.
I predict Jepkosgei will beat Jepchirchir, who will have an off day/not be 100% but still place 3rd, with Azimeraw in second. Pretty random feeling on Jepchirchir, the only reasoning behind which is her 18:03 5,000m for 14th place in Kenya last month listed on her WA page, which probably means nothing. I’d like to see a CR but I admit that could be wishful thinking, largely contingent on someone setting a solid pace in the first 25k.
I think Seidel will run a PR, 2:22-2:23 and finish 5th-7th.
In the men’s race, I like the defending champ Benson Kipruto to “upset” the favorites in Kamworor and Cherono. I’m a bit surprised to see Kamworor demolishing everyone in the poll on the homepage, 50% to 12% for the nearest vote-getter, Cherono, but I guess name recognition will do that.
I say: 1. Benson Kipruto 2:06:35 2. Lawrence Cherono 2:06:37 3. Geoffrey Kamworor 2:06:49 in an exciting 3-man duel, with a very fast final 5-8k in spite of the headwind.
LetsRun fan-favorite CJ Albertson will run ambitiously as expected, struggle on the Newton hills as expected, and somehow summon a big kick (wait, maybe I’m just predicting last year?) to dip under 2:10–2:09:58 for 10th place.
