1) Kessler still #1. 3:34.3 last year and has run 3:36.6 at this point this year (uncontested leader)
2) Colin moves back up to second with his 1:48.8 and 3:56.2 combo
3) Martin moves down to #3 even though he improved a bit at the mile. Now 3:57.89 (I can be convinced that he should now rank below Green)
4) Nathan Green. He has not improved on his 3:39.63, but he has qualified for NCAA.
5) Lentz. 8:39.7 steeple (what is his DOB?). Has qualified for NCAA
6) Parker Wolfe. Due to his 7:52/13:41 combo. Is not qualified for NCAA. So he slips behind Green (and Lentz) in my mind
7) Connor Burns. He was not mentioned here before today. 3:58.8
8) Tewalt. 3:59.9/7:56.2. Did not qualify for NCAA.
9) Lex. 7:57.0/13:43.9
10) Hansen. another one who was not mentioned before. 4:00.76
11) Leo. 4:00.77 (yes, it’s that close, so I am adding him).
Hansen and Leo fall off the list if Nathan Mountain is born in 2003.
Burns had the unlucky Dec 31 birthday, so Lex is still the top U18.
are you making age/experience a factor at all or just pure results? because the 3 high school juniors doing what college kids are should be higher than said college kids if it’s the former
I did not really. Look at Harrison’s progression. On the flip side, look at how well Nico has progressed in the last 2 years (most people thought that he was already pushed to the max at NP). It’s so impossible to tell who will really progress. So I kind of put them all in one U20 pot. I simply highlighted the top U18.
are you making age/experience a factor at all or just pure results? because the 3 high school juniors doing what college kids are should be higher than said college kids if it’s the former
I did not really. Look at Harrison’s progression. On the flip side, look at how well Nico has progressed in the last 2 years (most people thought that he was already pushed to the max at NP). It’s so impossible to tell who will really progress. So I kind of put them all in one U20 pot. I simply highlighted the top U18.
Lol. A few minutes later Harrison runs 3:59.33. so I (1) have to change my list (2) change my comment about Harrison’s lack of improvement.
I’m thinking that he read my post and decided to go sub 4.
I did not really. Look at Harrison’s progression. On the flip side, look at how well Nico has progressed in the last 2 years (most people thought that he was already pushed to the max at NP). It’s so impossible to tell who will really progress. So I kind of put them all in one U20 pot. I simply highlighted the top U18.
Lol. A few minutes later Harrison runs 3:59.33. so I (1) have to change my list (2) change my comment about Harrison’s lack of improvement.
I’m thinking that he read my post and decided to go sub 4.
Yes, he just gave an interview and thanked Jjjjj. He even pronounced your name correctly!
PS. While you discuss this, plears remember you remember you are talking about real people who are teenagers and very well may read what you write. So try to be courteous.
My vote, my wild guess, goes to Colin Sahlman. Something about him strikes me as the very real deal.
Obviously all very good young prospects in the USA but I think the young 16years and 5 months of age Cam Meyers from Canberra is the one to watch on the world stage in the future. Very impressive with what he did last night going at Australian mile champs as he took the lead at the 800m mark in 2:13 and ran away from the field with a 1:53 last 800m to run 4:07.07. Belongs to the same training group with 3:49 miler Jye Edwards and 3:36 runner Rory Hunter.
Obviously all very good young prospects in the USA but I think the young 16years and 5 months of age Cam Meyers
Well this aged well. 3:55 a couple months after this post. Just looked at his WA profile and it felt weird seeing he was born in 2006.
What's the consensus on this question now? Since I see Parker Wolfe getting thrown around, I'll toss in Ethan Strand. Same age as Wolfe and they both go to the same school. In AL people knew him because he's the best runner we've ever had. He had a decent freshman year of college, but this year he ran 3:55 ftw, and at ACCs outkicked Wolfe for a 7:46. Not sure he'll be the best, but I have him over Wolfe.
For the best prospect, I think Kessler has the most potential, but also the highest chance of never improving. Because of that, I think it's gotta be either Nico or Colin. Nico's been at the top of the NCAA for 3 years and has been consistently making progress. He had a bit of a setback indoors (wisdom teeth surgery?), but still had a solid showing at nationals. He seems like a good bet to keep slowly improving until he's finally world class, a la Rupp.
Colin has been the top runner in his class since his junior year, and would likely have 2 XC titles if Covid hadn't happened. He ran 14:03 on grass, then 1:48/3:56 that Spring. After a rocky first few months of college he threw down 1:46/3:38, so he's showing off really consistent progress and really impressive range. 3:36 this year doesn't seem far fetched based on his kick in the 3:38 race, and the only American who's run that fast his freshman year was Kessler. I see him kinda going the Teare route in the 5k. Become one of the best in the NCAA at the 1500, can't outkick the best guy, run the 5k and win because you have better speed.
For the best prospect, I think Kessler has the most potential, but also the highest chance of never improving.
Massive agree.
Peach Pit wrote:
What's the consensus on this question now?
IMO probably Nico. I feel like he's had consistent growth in a new system and who i'm sure would take a pro transition in stride vs Colin who might still need to spend time getting used to a collegiate system and/or a pro system.
It could also be none of these guys, and the next big US distance star might end up being a freshman running 14:00 right now. Didn't Woody Kincaid run 13:30 in college?
Actually, I can't believe I forgot them but I think Lex and Leo have a pretty clear cut path through college and into the pro scene and international level of competition. They already have a level of maturity in this sport you don't typically see at this age. It could also mean they won't improve past high school, but who knows? I like their chances.
My vote, my wild guess, goes to Colin Sahlman. Something about him strikes me as the very real deal.
That aged pretty well.....
What about 4 months later, now that he’s PRed with 1:46.99 & 3:38.30? Is it back to being a viable opinion in your view? I think he’ll run 3:34 or better by the end of his JR year.
PS. While you discuss this, plears remember you remember you are talking about real people who are teenagers and very well may read what you write. So try to be courteous.
My vote, my wild guess, goes to Colin Sahlman. Something about him strikes me as the very real deal.
Also, keep in mind that Hobbs Kessler (still 18) could easily be the first to run sub-13:20 for 5k.
Lol why did this get so many downvotes, 13:42 5k and 1:46 800m at 19 is legit miler talent.
To all the athletes I am speaking about in this post, don't take offense. I am merely speaking the hard, raw facts. Use it as motivation to train harder. Prove me wrong. Prove us wrong.
The Sahlmans are a notch above all of the Youngs because they are both 1:48 or faster in the 800m. They have better raw speed. Aaron split a 52.x on one of his suicidal 800s this year. Dayum, son. Nico and Lex have been found lacking in the latter stages of any race. Leo is emerging with the highest ceiling of the Youngs but Aaron walked him down at NXN at an event that's not his best.
I like Parker Wolfe but he has the same flaw as Nico and Lex. It's the Ritz syndrome... all heart and lungs and no elite raw speed to match the medal contenders. He'll be nowhere to be found with 600 to go at the top level.
The current crop of sub-4 HS talents (Rocky Hansen and the plethora of others). Frankly, they're being hoovered to fast times in ideal conditions with already very high level training under their belts. They're ordinary once they hit NCAA D1 circuit (with all due respect to HS 3:59 milers there are like 100 of them now at the collegiate level, if not more).
So let's talk deeper on Connor Burns. The kid is putting in 80+ miles a week already in HS and essentially training like an adult pro. He even has some high-tech gizmos to help with recovery (per a recent interview). All that and he's got smoked at Arcadia. The stats don't lie.
Simeon Birnbaum. I like this kid. He trains in South Dakota. Jeezus! It's like 40 below in winter. 49 400m speed. 8:34 3200m. It feels like he's doing this despite the disadvantage of living way out in SD. Nowhere near the heavy training like Connor Burns. He has a quite confidence about him. Maybe an upper-midwest thing like Chris Solinsky. Who knows.
Bonus: Rheinhardt Harrison. Remember that kid? 4:01 and had all the promise in the world in HS but ducked all the major competitors? Whatever happened to that kid? I don't know either. Zilch about him on his roster page: .
Coming back to Aaron. He is now going to train at 7000 feet full-time and working on his biggest weakness: mid-race stay-ability. Mark my words: Aaron Sahlman will, 5-8 years from now, come out on top of the current teen prospects.
Oh my word, it is just about time to get this thing settled, so whaddaya say we designate this summer’s HOKA Festival of Miles as the place to do it. It can be the unofficial (but official, wink wink) High School Mile Championship of 2023.
Let’s line them up there:
A. Sahlman, Birnbaum, Burns, Young twins, Heidish (spelling)…
