To be fair, both Willis and Ferlic have been pros quite a bit of time and Kessler is still a teenager. I’m guessing he’s in 7:45-7:50 shape which is monster shape for someone barely out of high school
To be fair, both Willis and Ferlic have been pros quite a bit of time and Kessler is still a teenager. I’m guessing he’s in 7:45-7:50 shape which is monster shape for someone barely out of high school
I was there- trust me, Hobbs didn't look like he was straining. On the contrary. He was super smooth and controlled all the way through
As a coach I would look at the workout posted and imagine.....in two years after this kid gets stronger.....could he keep the pace on that 1:24 600M and run a 1:52 800M? Could he keep the pace on that 39sec 300M and run a 52sec 400M? That's what we don't know. But if he ended a workout with a 1:52 800M followed by a 52sec 400M, you'd have to assume that he's close to running a 3:44 mile, or in other words, close to World Record pace. Based on his current fitness displayed in the video and his 3:34 1500M last year, I'd say he runs 3:51.1 at Millrose.
Apustajan wrote:
why do you yanks always go on and on about mediocre talent. please give us some peace
Kessler sub-3:55 would be amazing at Milrose.
Can’t wait.
How is 3:34 at 18 years old “mediocre talent”
That’s faster than any human being outside the african continent at that age in history except Jakob Ingerbrigsten
raging clue wrote:
To be fair, both Willis and Ferlic have been pros quite a bit of time and Kessler is still a teenager. I’m guessing he’s in 7:45-7:50 shape which is monster shape for someone barely out of high school
3:34 is worth 7:37. Being young, you would have to assume he would be slower than 7:37 on the day he ran 3:34. But he has had 7 months to mature and get stronger. If he is close to 3:51 soon, I would say closer to 7:40 (but he won’t run another this season so we won’t know).
I honestly just don't care
elvid33 wrote:
another perspective wrote:
Would be nice to know recovery on these reps. Like you can't say something is a monster workout unless you know recovery. A 39 second 300 is nothing without context, like top middle distance women could hit 39-40 if they had enough recovery, but hitting 39s off of 2min recovery is hard for even world class dudes.
If you want to be pedantic about it then, yeah, sure, whatever. The kid is a superstar young runner with top-notch coaching. He's not out the pretending by being a workout hero (and I'm sure he doesn't care if anyone else thinks this is a good workout or not).
Shirley the recovery is appropriate.
He's a stud talent for sure. I'm not being pedantic about him being a huge talent, I'm being pedantic about the guy who started the thread saying Hobbs is in "monster shape" based off of a workout where we don't know recovery.
I agree, kid probs doesn't care what people think about the workout, but again my comment wasn't directed at him. You can't tell much about his fitness, good or bad, from this video is all I'm saying.
another perspective wrote:
He's a stud talent for sure. I'm not being pedantic about him being a huge talent, I'm being pedantic about the guy who started the thread saying Hobbs is in "monster shape" based off of a workout where we don't know recovery.
I agree, kid probs doesn't care what people think about the workout, but again my comment wasn't directed at him. You can't tell much about his fitness, good or bad, from this video is all I'm saying.
You can though. He's stronger than Olympians Ferlic and Willis, and is coached by a coach with an excellent track record and knows what he is doing. You don't need to geek out about recovery time know he's in great shape. No need to predict race times to within even a few seconds to say that. Don't be pedantic.
no you are stupid because i am pretty sure you would agree that many mediocre athletes are faster than hundreds of millions of other people. the point is you yanks sre hopping this kid up to achieve things when he will do no such thing. maybe in america which is a mediocre running country when compsred to how big it is and the resources and misinformation they pour into it.
hockoverhobb wrote:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CZDZztFOA8H/?utm_medium=copy_linkDoesn’t look like he’s in monster shape based on this. Look at Willis and Felic having a good time while Hobbs is straining for that sub 8 3k.
You can gauge very little from an instantaneous photo. He was probably just putting in a last second surge to pip Mason and Nick. You'd want to watch the whole race to see if he looked like he was struggling at all. Given he won I would highly doubt it!
UM invite wrote:
This was definitely a pre-planned workout type performance. The top 4 kids from Newbury Park could have executed the exact same thing today. Fact remains this was light work for Hobbs. Next week at Millrose, anything over 3:51 would be disappointing.
#1- no, the top-4 kids at Newbury Park could not have gone 2:45-2:45-2:30. I don't think they could close in 2:30 off of a 5:30 2k.
#2- would 3:55 be disappointing if the race is won in 3:54? Just gotta see how the race plays out.
They did exactly what they said they were gonna do in the 3k. Time to get ready for Millrose.
Looks like the NP kids are 4:05 milers.
hockoverhobb wrote:
https://www.instagram.com/p/CZDZztFOA8H/?utm_medium=copy_linkDoesn’t look like he’s in monster shape based on this. Look at Willis and Felic having a good time while Hobbs is straining for that sub 8 3k.
Yeah, one static picture means very little. Was he supposed to be smiling, like the other two? Looks a little phony. Nevertheless, they did exactly what Warhurst said there were going to do.
I don’t know what he will run at Millrose, but the mile is his wheelhouse, so I would be very surprised if he wasn’t “right there” at the end.
I understand people on here wanting to rein in expectations, but this kid is the most phenomenal talent the states have produced in quite some time. He’s going to be close to 3:30 outdoors.
another perspective wrote:
elvid33 wrote:
If you want to be pedantic about it then, yeah, sure, whatever. The kid is a superstar young runner with top-notch coaching. He's not out the pretending by being a workout hero (and I'm sure he doesn't care if anyone else thinks this is a good workout or not).
Shirley the recovery is appropriate.
He's a stud talent for sure. I'm not being pedantic about him being a huge talent, I'm being pedantic about the guy who started the thread saying Hobbs is in "monster shape" based off of a workout where we don't know recovery.
I agree, kid probs doesn't care what people think about the workout, but again my comment wasn't directed at him. You can't tell much about his fitness, good or bad, from this video is all I'm saying.
I agree that it’s a little weird for people to over-analyze workouts like this. They’re out there doing their regular training. They make and post some videos like this to generate hype and enthusiasm. There isn’t really anyone with the credentials to critique their training that would critique after seeing one workout.
Threads like this are for the Monday morning quarterbacks of the running world.
Apustajan wrote:
no you are stupid because i am pretty sure you would agree that many mediocre athletes are faster than hundreds of millions of other people. the point is you yanks sre hopping this kid up to achieve things when he will do no such thing. maybe in america which is a mediocre running country when compsred to how big it is and the resources and misinformation they pour into it.
The U.S. is probably the third best distance running country and the best country for sprinting and the jumps and field events. Provide a list of good running prospects according to which Hobbs Kessler is not absolutely first rate.
Currently, Melkaneh Azize ran 3:33.74 at a supposed age of 16 last year. Kamar Etiang was listed at nearly 19 when he ran 3:33.12 at altitude. Again, you just have no idea about the age of Ethiopian and Kenyan juniors, whose history is that of age cheating and all the incentives support it in countries where age verification at birth remained quite unlikely until maybe a decade ago. Jakob ran 3:30.16 just before his 19th birthday, but at Monaco with a great field.
Who's to say that Kessler won't approach that time at 19 and a few months this year if he gets to Monaco? A few years back, George Manangoi, brother of a whereabout evader, ran 3:31 at supposedly almost 19, but has since disappeared from the top ranks. Samuel Tefera ran 3:31 at supposedly just under 19, but also looked older. Justus Soget at supposedly 17 back in 2017 ran 3:32.97 and hasn't beaten that since. Another Rosa athlete.
Not only is Kessler the 30th fastest under 20 athlete in the 1500m in history, but he was only just 18 at the time and will still be an under 20 athlete this year with potential to move way up the list; many of the athletes ahead of him were age cheating and haven't run as fast again; and he absolutely burst on the scene just last year with a huge drop of roughly 15 seconds in the mile. If you watch that workout, you can see just how easy and full of running he is at those paces. Hence, we believe that he has huge potential, and Nick Willis, a two-time Olympic medalist, was raving about him and his potential all last year. I will be shocked if Kessler is not a 3:30-31 and 1:44 athlete this year or next already.
As a non coach, I would say that you massively over analyze and probably get in the way of your athletes because of this.
UM Invite wrote:
As a coach I would look at the workout posted and imagine.....in two years after this kid gets stronger.....could he keep the pace on that 1:24 600M and run a 1:52 800M? Could he keep the pace on that 39sec 300M and run a 52sec 400M? That's what we don't know. But if he ended a workout with a 1:52 800M followed by a 52sec 400M, you'd have to assume that he's close to running a 3:44 mile, or in other words, close to World Record pace. Based on his current fitness displayed in the video and his 3:34 1500M last year, I'd say he runs 3:51.1 at Millrose.
I don't think that you do athletes a service by not calculating their likely race pace by reference to workouts. There's just too much useful information that you're not using.
UM invite wrote:
Yup 7:59 and it was almost exactly what an earlier comment predicted. 4:23 through 1600m (slow!), then two more 200s in like 33 so 5:29 at 2K, and the last 1K in exactly 2:30. I didn't see it but I bet it was easy AF for Hobbs & Ferlic. Hobbs could probably run close to 7:45 right now.
7:59.41
11th best US junior performance of all time (absolute), in what was basically a workout.
Hobbs did look strained however (I hope so).
He could challenge Jim Ryun’s US junior record of 7:47.8. That record has been around since 1966!!